Pardee Wiki - User contributions [en]

Introduction to IFs

2017-09-07T23:09:41Z

JessRettig:

Introduction to IFs

2017-09-07T23:06:10Z

JessRettig:

2017-09-07T22:48:51Z

JessRettig:

Acknowledgements

2017-09-07T22:47:23Z

JessRettig: Created page with "Our team gratefully recognizes critical contributions in the forms of: 1. Testing and suggestions for development of IFs in one or more of multiple generations. By Donald Bor..."

Our team gratefully recognizes critical contributions in the forms of:

1. Testing and suggestions for development of IFs in one or more of multiple generations. By Donald Borock, Richard Chadwick, William Dixon, Dale Rothman, Phil Schrodt, Douglas Stuart, Donald Sylvan, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and Ronald Inglehart.

2. Computer assistance across many releases. By Michael Niemann, Terrance Peet-Lukes, Douglas McClure, Mohammod Irfan, and Jose Solorzano.

3. Data gathering and general assistance. By James Chung, Padma Padula, Shannon Brady, David Horan, Michael Ferrier, Kay Drucker, Warren Christopher, and Anwar Hossain.

4. Long-term encouragement and support. By Harold Guetzkow, Karl Deutsch, Richard Chadwick, Gerald Barney, and Ronald Inglehart.

5. Association in related world modeling projects and projects building upon IFs. By Mihajlo Mesarovic, Aldo Barsotti, Juan Huerta, John Richardson, Thomas Shook, Patricia Strauch, and other members of the World Integrated Model (WIM) team. By Stuart Bremer, Peter Brecke, Thomas Cusack, Wolf Dieter-Eberwein, Brian Pollins, and Dale Smith of the GLOBUS modeling project. By Evan Hillebrand, Paul Herman, and others of the IFs for SAG project. By Rob Lempert and Steve Bankes at RAND, Santa Monica. By Robert Pestel, Jonathan Cave, Ronald Inglehart, Sergei Parinov, Pentti Malaska, and many others in the IFs for TERRA project.

6. Financial assistance (without responsibility for the form of the evolving product). By the National Science Foundation, the Cleveland Foundation, the Exxon Education Foundation, the Kettering Family Foundation, the Pacific Cultural Foundation, the United States Institute of Peace, General Motors, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency, the European Commission (Information Society Technology) Programme, the European Union Center of the University of Michigan, the National Intelligence Council (for web conversion), and Frederick S. Pardee.             

Additional resources

2017-09-07T22:46:13Z

JessRettig:

[[Data|Data]]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Model_validation_and_verification Model validation and verification]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Consolidation Consolidation]

[[Preprocessor|Preprocessor]]

[[Sub-modules|Sub-modules]]

[[SubRegionalization_Handbook|Sub-Regionalization Handbook]]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Version_notes Version notes]

[[IFs_Bibliography|IFs Bibliography]]

[[Development_Mode_Features|Development Mode Features]]

[[Publications_on_IFs|Publications on IFs]]

[[Instructional_Use_of_IFs_(For_Classrooms)|IFs for the Classroom]]

[[Acknowledgements]]

=== In progress[[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=International_Futures_(IFs)&action=edit&section=1 edit]] ===

[[Sandbox|Sandbox]]

Introduction to IFs

2017-09-07T22:45:14Z

JessRettig:

Introduction to IFs

2017-09-07T22:44:43Z

JessRettig:

Introduction to IFs

2017-09-07T22:44:22Z

JessRettig:

Additional resources

2017-09-07T22:43:55Z

JessRettig:

[[Data|Data]]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Model_validation_and_verification Model validation and verification]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Consolidation Consolidation]

[[Preprocessor|Preprocessor]]

[[Sub-modules|Sub-modules]]

[[SubRegionalization_Handbook|Sub-Regionalization Handbook]]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Version_notes Version notes]

[[IFs_Bibliography|IFs Bibliography]]

[[Development_Mode_Features|Development Mode Features]]

[[Publications_on_IFs|Publications on IFs]]

[[Instructional_Use_of_IFs_(For_Classrooms)|IFs for the Classroom]]

=== In progress[[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=International_Futures_(IFs)&action=edit&section=1 edit]] ===

[[Sandbox|Sandbox]]

Instructional Use of IFs (For Classrooms)

2017-09-07T22:41:38Z

JessRettig: Created page with "The standard modes for using IFs in a classroom are: 1. Assigning class members to an issue area or topic. Consider identifying specific questions for them to address. 2. As..."

The standard modes for using IFs in a classroom are:

1. Assigning class members to an issue area or topic. Consider identifying specific questions for them to address.

2. Assigning class members to a country/geographic region. Again, specificity helps.

Most often, students will work independently or in groups on projects and share information after completing them. It is possible, however, to have students work interactively, by assigning them topics or regions, letting them begin work, and then have the interacting groups (or individuals) create a collective model run with the changes that each group proposes by topic or region. That process, although more difficult to organize, allows the class as whole to investigate the interaction of their topics or regions (and to share learning about model use).

There is a [http://portfolio.du.edu/bhughes web site] available in support of the educational use of IFs. You will find syllabi at that site. There are several [[Introduction_to_IFs#Publications_on_IFs|publications]] on IFs, including a book structured specifically for educational use.

Donald Borock has described his classroom use of IFs in print. Borock, Donald. 1996. "Using Computer Assisted Instruction to Enhance the Understanding of Policymaking," Advances in Social Science and Computers 4, 103-127.

Additional resources

2017-09-07T22:41:19Z

JessRettig:

[[Data|Data]]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Model_validation_and_verification Model validation and verification]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Consolidation Consolidation]

[[Preprocessor|Preprocessor]]

[[Sub-modules|Sub-modules]]

[[SubRegionalization_Handbook|Sub-Regionalization Handbook]]

[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Version_notes Version notes]

[[IFs_Bibliography|IFs Bibliography]]

[[Development_Mode_Features|Development Mode Features]]

[[Publications_on_IFs|Publications on IFs]]

[[Instructional_Use_of_IFs_(For_Classrooms)]]

=== In progress[[http://pardee.du.edu/wiki/index.php?title=International_Futures_(IFs)&action=edit&section=1 edit]] ===

[[Sandbox|Sandbox]]

Introduction to IFs

2017-09-07T22:40:16Z

JessRettig:

2017-09-07T22:31:56Z

JessRettig:

International Futures (IFs)

2017-09-07T22:30:58Z

JessRettig:

'''Welcome to the International Futures (IFs) wiki. '''

Consult the [//meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:Contents User's Guide] for information on using the wiki software.

[[Introduction_to_IFs|Introduction to IFs]] - Click here for an overview of the IFs system, including a description of the tool's purpose and major assumptions in its Base Case forecasts.

[[Use_IFs_(Download_Version)|Use IFs (Download Version)]] - Click here for instructions on using the standalone desktop version of IFs.

[[Use_IFs_(Online_Version)|Use IFs (Online Version)]] - Click here for instructions on using the web (cloud) version of IFs.

[[Understand_the_Model|Understand IFs]] - Click here to access documentation on each of the major system models in IFs. 

[[Guide_to_Scenario_Analysis_in_International_Futures_(IFs)|Guide to Scenario Analysis in IFs]] - Click here for instructions on creating and comparing alternative scenarios in IFs. This guide also includes an updated list of IFs parameters.

[[Additional_resources|Additional resources]]

== Getting started ==

*[//www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Manual:Configuration_settings Configuration settings list]
*[//www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Manual:FAQ MediaWiki FAQ]
*[https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/mediawiki-announce MediaWiki release mailing list]
*[//www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Localisation#Translation_resources Localise MediaWiki for your language]

International Futures (IFs)

2017-09-07T22:29:20Z

JessRettig:

'''Welcome to the International Futures (IFs) wiki. '''

Consult the [//meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:Contents User's Guide] for information on using the wiki software.

[[Introduction_to_IFs|Introduction to IFs]] - Click here for an overview of the IFs system, including a description of the tool's purpose and major assumptions in its Base Case forecasts.

[[Use_IFs_(Download_Version)|Use IFs (Download Version)]] - Click here for instructions on using the standalone desktop version of IFs.

[[Use_IFs_(Online_Version)|Use IFs (Online Version)]] - Click here for instructions on using the web (cloud) version of IFs.

[[Understand_the_Model|Understand IFs]] - Click here to access documentation on each of the major systems in IFs. 

[[Guide_to_Scenario_Analysis_in_International_Futures_(IFs)|Guide to Scenario Analysis in IFs]] - Click here for instructions on creating and comparing alternative scenarios in IFs. 

[[Additional_resources|Additional resources]]

== Getting started ==

*[//www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Manual:Configuration_settings Configuration settings list]
*[//www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Manual:FAQ MediaWiki FAQ]
*[https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/mediawiki-announce MediaWiki release mailing list]
*[//www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Localisation#Translation_resources Localise MediaWiki for your language]

Introduction to IFs

2017-09-07T22:27:19Z

JessRettig:

International Futures (IFs)

2017-09-07T22:26:10Z

JessRettig:

2017-09-07T21:32:30Z

JessRettig: Just cleaned this up a little and added links.

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Purposes</span> =

'''International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term global trends and planning more strategically for the future. '''

IFs can help you:

*Understand the state of major global systems
*Explore long-term trends and consider where they might take us
*Learn about the dynamic interactions between global systems
*Clarify long-term organizational goals/priorities
*Develop alternative scenarios (if-then statements) about the future
*Investigate how different groups (households, firms or governments) can shape the future

'''IFs development and analysis depend on core, underlying assumptions, including the following.'''

*Global issues are becoming more significant as the scope of human interaction and human impact on the broader environment grow.
*Goals and priorities for human systems are becoming clearer and are more frequently and consistently communicated.
*Understanding of the dynamics of human systems is improving rapidly.
*The domain of human choice and action is broadening.

'''What issues can you investigate with IFs?'''

*[[Environment]]: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, world forest area, fossil fuel usage
*[[Socio-Political|Socio-Political Change]]: Life expectancy, literacy rate, democracy level, status of women, value change
*[[Population|Demographics]]: Population levels and growth, fertility, mortality, migration
*[[Agriculture|Food and Agriculture]]: Land use and production levels, calorie availability, malnutrition rates
*[[Energy]]: Resource and production levels, demand patterns, renewable energy share
*[[Economics]]: Sectoral production, consumption, and trade patterns and structural change
*[[Interstate_Politics_(IP)|Geopolitics]]: Country and regional power levels

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Issues and Modules: Visual Representation</span> =

[[File:IFsOverviewChart.jpg|frame|center|Visual representation of IFs structure]]

Among the philosophical premises of the International Futures (IFs) project is that the model cannot be a "black box" to users and be truly useful. Model users must be able to examine the structures of IFs in order (1) to have confidence in them, and (2) learn from them.

There is available (see topics under Understanding the Mode in the contents of this help system):

*[[Understand_IFs#Dominant_Relations|Dominant Relations]] of the model structure
*[[Understand_IFs#2.2|Structure-Based and Agent-Class Driven Modeling]]
*[[Understand_IFs#Equation_Notation|Equation Notation]]
*[[Introduction_to_IFs#IFs_Bibliography|IFs Bibliography]] of data and data sources

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Issues and Modules: Quick Survey</span> =

The '''population''' module:

*represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
*calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
*computes average life expectancy at birth, literacy rate, and overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life
*represents migration and HIV/AIDS
*includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels

The '''economic''' module:

*represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, industry, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
*computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
*is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
*contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
*uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns
*utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
*is being imbedded during 2002 in a social accounting matrix (SAM) envelope that will tie economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows

The '''agricultural''' module:

*represents production, consumption and trade of crops and meat; it also carries ocean fish catch and aquaculture in less detail
*maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories
*represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
*is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
*overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The '''energy''' module:

*portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
*represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
*represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
*portrays changing capital costs of each energy type with technological change as well as with draw-downs of resources
*is a partial equilibrium model in which energy stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
*overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The two '''socio-political''' sub-modules:

Within countries or geographic groupings

*represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
*shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
*represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
*represents the evolution of democracy
*represents the prospects for state instability or failure

Between countries or groupings of countries

*traces changes in power balances across states and regions
*allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
*represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries

The implicit '''environmental''' module:

*is distributed throughout the overall model
*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions

The implicit '''technology''' module:

*is distributed throughout the overall model
*allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in agriculture, energy, and the broader economy
*explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
*is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending 

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Background</span> =

International Futures (IFs) has evolved since 1980 through three "generations," with a fourth generation now taking form.

The first generation had deep roots in the world models of the 1970s, including those of the Club of Rome. In particular, IFs drew on the Mesarovic-Pestel or World Integrated Model (Mesarovic and Pestel 1974). The author of IFs had contributed to that project, including the construction of the energy submodel. IFs consciously also drew on the Leontief World Model (Leontief et al. 1977), the Bariloche Foundation’s world model (Herrera et al. 1976), and Systems Analysis Research Unit Model (SARU 1977), following comparative analysis of those models by Hughes (1980). That generation was written in FORTRAN and available for use on main-frame computers through CONDUIT, an educational software distribution center at the University of Iowa. Although the primary use of that and subsequent generations was by students, IFs has always had some policy analysis capability that has appealed to specialists. For example, the U.S. Foreign Service Institute used the first generation of IFs in a mid-career training program.

The second generation of International Futures moved to early microcomputers in 1985, using the DOS platform. It was a very simplified version of the original IFs without regional or country differentiation.

The third generation, first available in 1993, became a full-scale microcomputer model. The third generation improved earlier representations of demographic, energy, and food systems, but added new environmental and socio-political content. It built upon the collaboration of the author with the GLOBUS project, and it adopted the economic submodel of GLOBUS (developed by the author). GLOBUS had been created with the inspiration of Karl Deutsch and under the leadership of Stuart Bremer (1987) at the Wissenschaftszentrum in Berlin.

The third generation has produced three editions/major releases of IFs, each accompanied by a book also called International Futures (Hughes 1993, 1996, 1999). The second edition moved to a Visual Basic platform that allowed a much improved menu-driven interface, running under Windows. The third edition incorporated an early global mapping capability and an initial ability to do cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis.

The fourth generation has been taking shape since early 2000. It has been heavily influenced by the usage of the model in an increasingly policy-analysis mode by several important organizations. First, General Motors commissioned a specialized version of IFs named CoVaTrA (Consumer Values Trends Analysis) with a need for updated and extended demographic modeling and representation of value change. An alliance was established with the World Values Survey, directed by Ronald Inglehart, to create that version. Second, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency commissioned a specialized version named IFs for SAG. The work involved in preparing that greatly extended and enhanced the socio-political representations of the model, both domestic and international. Third, the European Commission sponsored a project named TERRA which has led to a specialized version named IFs for TERRA. IFs for TERRA work led to enhancements across the model, including improved representation of economic sectors, updated IO matrices and a basic Social Accounting Matrix, GINI and Lorenz curves, and preparing for extended environmental impact representation (drawing upon the Advanced Sustainability Analysis framework of the Finland Futures Research Center).

Throughout this emergence of a fourth generation IFs (incorporating all of the above elements for additional users) there has been also a heavy emphasis on enhanced usability. Ideas from Robert Pestel in the TERRA project led to the creation of a new tree-structure for scenario creation and management. Ideas from Ronald Inglehart led to the development of the Guided Use structure and a somewhat more game-like character within that structure. Inglehart also help arrange funding to support the programming of Guided Use through the European Union Center of the University of Michigan.

The fifth version of IFs is currently in use and represents broad strides to improving the model and its usability. It is the first version of this software to be placed online due to the help of the National Intelligence Council ([http://www.ifs.du.edu http://www.ifs.du.edu]). Also, usability has been increased as Packaged Displays and Flex Packaged Displays were introduced that allowed for the creation of very specific lists of countries/regions, groups or Glists. A new education model has also been incorporated into the broader IFs model. New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Geographic Representation of the World</span> =

186 countries underpin the functioning of IFs and these countries can be displayed separately or as parts of larger groups that users can determine.

''Below is a visual representation of how different entities are organized into Countries/Regions, Groups or Glists:''

[[File:Geo 186.png|frame|right|Visual representation of IF's definition of regions/countries/groups/glists]]

''*Note: In older versions of IFs, Regions were used as intermediaries between Countries and Groups. In the future, they, or some similarly named unit, will be a sub-unit of Countries. Regions, acting as a sub-unit of Countries, are currently not a feature of IFs. See the image located at the bottom of this Help topic.''

When using IFs, there are many occasions where the user is asked whether or not they would like to display their results as a product of single countries, or larger groups. This is typically a toggle switch that moves between Country/Region and Groups, however, it might be a three-way-toggle that includes Country/Region, Group and Glist.

Countries/Regions are currently the smallest geographical unit that users can represent. The ability to split countries down into smaller regions, or states, is under development. There are 186 different countries/regions that users can display.

Groups are variably organized geographically or by memberships in international institutions/regimes. You can find out who is represented in each group and add or delete members by exploring the [[Extended_Features#Manage_Groups/Regions|Managing Regionalization]] function.

Glists merge both Groups and Countries/Regions. These lists are mostly geographically bound. In the future, the Glist distinction will become more important as some users may want to place, for example, both the Indian state of Kerala in a Glist with Sri Lanka and Nepal.

Users may also want to [[Extended_Features#Change_Grouping/Regionalization|create]] their own groups or [[Extended_Features#Identify_Groups_or_Country/Region_Members|explore]] what countries are members of what groups.

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Time Horizon</span> =

'''Future Forecasts.''' IFs begins computation with data from 2000 and can dynamically calculate values for all variables annually through 2100.

'''Historical Analysis and "Forecasts."''' IFs also includes an extensive and growing historical data base starting in 1960. The data basis allows analysis of relationships among variables across countries and across time. 

== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Instructional Use</span> ==

The standard modes for using IFs in a classroom are:

1. Assigning class members to an issue area or topic. Consider identifying specific questions for them to address.

2. Assigning class members to a country/geographic region. Again, specificity helps.

Most often, students will work independently or in groups on projects and share information after completing them. It is possible, however, to have students work interactively, by assigning them topics or regions, letting them begin work, and then have the interacting groups (or individuals) create a collective model run with the changes that each group proposes by topic or region. That process, although more difficult to organize, allows the class as whole to investigate the interaction of their topics or regions (and to share learning about model use).

There is a [http://portfolio.du.edu/bhughes web site] available in support of the educational use of IFs. You will find syllabi at that site. There are several [[Introduction_to_IFs#Publications_on_IFs|publications]] on IFs, including a book structured specifically for educational use.

Donald Borock has described his classroom use of IFs in print. Borock, Donald. 1996. "Using Computer Assisted Instruction to Enhance the Understanding of Policymaking," Advances in Social Science and Computers 4, 103-127.

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Acknowledgements</span> =

The author gratefully recognizes critical contributions in the forms of:

:1. Testing and suggestions for development of IFs in one or more of multiple generations. By Donald Borock, Richard Chadwick, William Dixon, Dale Rothman, Phil Schrodt, Douglas Stuart, Donald Sylvan, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and Ronald Inglehart.

:2. Computer assistance across many releases. By Michael Niemann, Terrance Peet-Lukes, Douglas McClure, Mohammod Irfan, and Jose Solorzano.

:3. Data gathering and general assistance. By James Chung, Padma Padula, Shannon Brady, David Horan, Michael Ferrier, Kay Drucker, Warren Christopher, and Anwar Hossain.

:4. Long-term encouragement and support. By Harold Guetzkow, Karl Deutsch, Richard Chadwick, Gerald Barney, and Ronald Inglehart.

:5. Association in related world modeling projects and projects building upon IFs. By Mihajlo Mesarovic, Aldo Barsotti, Juan Huerta, John Richardson, Thomas Shook, Patricia Strauch, and other members of the World Integrated Model (WIM) team. By Stuart Bremer, Peter Brecke, Thomas Cusack, Wolf Dieter-Eberwein, Brian Pollins, and Dale Smith of the GLOBUS modeling project. By Evan Hillebrand, Paul Herman, and others of the IFs for SAG project. By Rob Lempert and Steve Bankes at RAND, Santa Monica. By Robert Pestel, Jonathan Cave, Ronald Inglehart, Sergei Parinov, Pentti Malaska, and many others in the IFs for TERRA project.

:6. Financial assistance (without responsibility for the form of the evolving product). By the National Science Foundation, the Cleveland Foundation, the Exxon Education Foundation, the Kettering Family Foundation, the Pacific Cultural Foundation, the United States Institute of Peace, General Motors, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency, the European Commission (Information Society Technology) Programme, the European Union Center of the University of Michigan, the National Intelligence Council (for web conversion), and Frederick S. Pardee.             

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Feedback</span> =

Feedback on how to improve IFs is always appreciated, especially if you find something that is not working. Compliments are also accepted. Please contact. To send the IFs team an e-mail, click on [mailto:pardee.center@du.edu Pardee Center] in stand-alone versions or on the web.

= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Support for IFs Use</span> =

== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Publications on IFs</span> ==

To obtain additional information about IFs and its use, consult:

Barry B. Hughes and Evan E. Hillebrand, '''Exploring and Shaping International Futures.''' Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers, 2006. Specifically, see chapter 4.

Barry B. Hughes, '''International Futures: Choices in the Face of Uncertainty,''' 3rd ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1999. This volume is built around IFs and contains detailed suggestions for its use. Version 3.17 of IFs, which runs under Windows 95, is distributed with the third edition of the book. The second edition contained a version for Windows 3.1, and the first edition ran under DOS. Chapter 4 of the 2nd edition of IFs included Flow Charts of Worldviews , reproduced now in this Help system.

Barry B. Hughes, '''Continuity and Change in World Politics,''' 4th ed. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 2000. IFs can also usefully supplement this textbook on global politics.

Barry B. Hughes, "The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project. 1999. '''Simulation and Gaming''' 30, No. 3 (September): 304-326.

== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IFs Bibliography</span> ==

Alcamo, Joseph, Rik Leemans and Eric Kreileman, eds. 1998. ''Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model''. The Netherlands: Pergamon.

Alcamo, Joseph. 1994. ''IMAGE 2.0: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change''. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Alexandratos, Nikos, ed. 1995. ''World Agriculture: Towards 2010'' (An FAO Study). New York: FAO and John Wiley and Sons.

Allen, R. G. D. 1968. ''Macro-Economic Theory: A Mathematical Treatment''. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Avery, Dennis. 1995. "Saving the Planet with Pesticides," in ''The True State of the Planet'', ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 50-82.

Bailey, Ronald, ed. 1995. ''The True State of the Planet''. New York: The Free Press.

Barbieri, Kathleen. 1996. "Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?" ''Journal of Peace Research'' 33: 29-50.

Barker, T.S. and A.W.A. Peterson, eds. 1987. ''The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy''. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Barney, Gerald O., W. Brian Kreutzer, and Martha J. Garrett, eds. 1991. ''Managing a Nation'', 2nd ed. Boulder: Westview Press.

Barro, Robert J. 1997. ''Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study''. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. 1999. ''Economic Growth''. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Bennett, D. Scott, and Allan Stam. 2003. ''The Behavioral Origins of War: Cumulation and Limits to Knowledge in Understanding International Conflict''. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press

Birg, Herwig. 1995. ''World Population Projections for the 21st Century''. Frankfurt: Campus Verlag.

Borock, Donald M. 1996. "Using Computer Assisted Instruction to Enhance the Understanding of Policymaking," ''Advances in Social Science and Computers'' 4, 103-127.

Bos, Eduard, My T. Vu, Ernest Massiah, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1994. ''World Population Projections 1994-95 Edition'' [editions are biannual] Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.

Boulding, Elise and Kenneth E. Boulding. 1995. ''The Future: Images and Processes''. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Brecke, Peter. 1993. "Integrated Global Models that Run on Personal Computers," ''Simulation''60 (2).

Bremer, Stuart A. 1977. ''Simulated Worlds: A Computer Model of National Decision-Making''. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Bremer, Stuart A., ed. 1987. ''The GLOBUS Model: Computer Simulation of World-wide Political and Economic Developments''. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Bremer, Stuart A. and Walter Gruhn. 1988. ''Micro GLOBUS: A Computer Model of Long-Term Global Political and Economic Processes''. Berlin: edition sigma.

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Barro, Robert and Jong-Wha Lee. 2000. “International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications.” NBER Working Paper No. 7911. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Bruns, Barbara, Alain Mingat, and Ramahatra Rakotomalala. 2003. Achieving Universal Primary Education by 2015: A Chance for Every Child. Washington, DC: World Bank.

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Clemens, Michael A. 2004. The Long Walk to School: International education goals in historical perspective. Econ WPA, March. [http://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpdc/0403007.html http://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpdc/0403007.html].

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Delamonica, Enrique, Santosh Mehrotra, and Jan Vandemoortele. 2001 (August).  “Is EFA Affordable? Estimating the Global Minimum Cost of ‘Education for All’”. Innocenti Working Paper No. 87.  Florence: UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre. [http://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/iwp87.pdf http://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/iwp87.pdf].

Dickson, Janet R., Barry B. Hughes, and Mohammod T. Irfan. 2010. Advancing Global Education. Vol 2, Patterns of Potential Human Progress series.  Boulder, CO, and New Delhi, India: Paradigm Publishers and Oxford University Press. [http://www.ifs.du.edu/documents http://www.ifs.du.edu/documents].

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Hughes, Barry B. and Evan E. Hillebrand. 2006.  ''Exploring and Shaping International Futures''.  Boulder, Co:  Paradigm Publishers.

Hughes, Barry B. with Anwar Hossain and Mohammod T. Irfan. 2004 (May).  “The Structure of IFs.” Pardee Center for International Futures Working Paper, Denver, CO. [http://www.ifs.du.edu/documents/reports.aspx http://www.ifs.du.edu/documents/reports.aspx]. 

Irfan, Mohammod T. 2008.  “A Global Education Transition: Computer Simulation of Alternative Paths in Universal Basic Education,” Ph.D. dissertation presented to the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, Colorado.  [http://www.ifs.du.edu/documents/reports.aspx http://www.ifs.du.edu/documents/reports.aspx].

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== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Energy Bibliography</span> ==

Kalymon, Basil A. 1975. "Economic Incentives in OPEC Oil Pricing Policy." ''Journal of Development Economics'' 2: 337-362.

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== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Governance Bibliography</span> ==

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Cilliers, Jakkie, Barry Hughes, and Jonathan Moyer. 2011. ''African Futures 2050: The Next 40 Years''. Pretoria, South Africa and Denver, Colorado: Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

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Diehl, Paul F., ed. 1999. ''A Roadmap to War: Territorial Dimensions of International Conflict'', 1<sup>st</sup> ed. Nashville: Vanderbilt University Press.

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Esty, Daniel C., Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela Surko, and Alan N. Unger. 1998. “State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings.” Study Commissioned by the Central Intelligence Agency and George Mason University School of Public Policy. Political Instability Task Force, Arlington VA.

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Goldstone, Jack A. 2010. “The New Population Bomb” ''Foreign Affairs'' (January/February): 31-43.

Goldstone, Jack A., Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward. 2010. “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.” ''American Journal of Political Science'' 54(1): 190-208. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x.

Hughes, Barry B. 2001. “Global Social Transformation: The Sweet Spot, the Steady Slog, and the Systemic Shift.” ''Economic Development and Cultural Change'' 49(2): 423-458. doi: 10.1086/452510.

Hughes, Barry B. 2002. "Threats and Opportunities Analysis," working document prepared for the Strategic Assessments Group, Office of Transnational Issues, Central Intelligence Agency.  Available on the IFs project web site at [http://www.ifs.du.edu/ www.ifs.du.edu].

Hughes, Barry B., and Anwar Hossain. 2003. “Long-Term Socio-Economic Modeling: With Universal, Globally-Integrated Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) in a General Equilibrium Model Structure.” Working Paper, University of Denver, Denver, CO. [http://www.ifs.du.edu/assets/documents/economyandsamdocument46.pdf http://www.ifs.du.edu/assets/documents/economyandsamdocument46.pdf]

Hughes, Barry B., Devin Joshi, Jonathan Moyer, Timothy Sisk and José Roberto Solórzano. 2014. ''Strengthening Governance Globally. ''vol. 5, Patterns of Potential Human Progress series. Boulder, CO, and New Delhi, India: Paradigm Publishers and Oxford University Press.

Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. ''The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century''. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma.

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Joshi, Devin. 2011a. “Good Governance, State Capacity, and the Millennium Development Goals.” ''Perspectives on Global Development and Technology ''10(2): 339-360. doi: 10.1163/156914911X5824.68.

Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay, and Massimo Mastruzzi. 2010. “The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. 5430. World Bank, Washington, DC.

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== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Health Bibliography</span> ==

Adams 1987. [http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~jadams/PDFs/smeed's%20law.pdf "Smeed's Law: some further thoughts."] ''Traffic Engineering and Control'' (Feb) 70-73.

Alsan, Marcella, David E. Bloom, and David Canning. 2006. “The Effects of Population Health on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries,” ''World Development'' 34(4): 613-630.

Anand, Sudhir and Martin Ravallion. 1993. “Human development in poor countries: on the role of private incomes and public services,” ''Journal of Economic Perspectives'' 7(1): 133–150.

Ashraf, Quamrul H., Ashley Lester, and David N. Weil. 2008. “When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?”  NBER Working Paper No. 14449. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Bidani, Benu and Martin Ravallion. 1997. “Decomposing social indicators using distributional data.” ''Journal of Econometrics'' 77: 125–139.

Bloom, David E., and David Canning. 2004. “Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance.” NBER Working Paper No. 10817.  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Blössner, Monika, and Mercedes de Onis. 2005. ''Malnutrition: quantifying the health impact at national and local levels.'' Geneva, World Health Organization. (WHO Environmental Burden of Disease Series, No. 12).

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Desai, Manish A., Sumi Mehta, and Kirk R. Smith. 2004. “Indoor smoke from solid fuels: Assessing the environmental burden of disease.”WHOEnvironmental Burden of Disease Series No. 4''. ''Annette Pruss-Üstun, Diamid Campbell-Lendrum, Carlos Corvalán, and Alistair Woodward, series eds. World Health Organization, Geneva.

Ezzati, Majid and Alan D. Lopez. 2004. “Smoking and oral tobacco use.” In Majid Ezzati, Alan D. Lopez, Anthony Rodgers, and Cristopher J.L. Murray, eds., ''Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors''. Geneva: World Health Organization, 883-957.  Retrieved 4 Feb 2009, from [http://www.who.int/publications/cra/chapters/volume1/part4/en/index.html http://www.who.int/publications/cra/chapters/volume1/part4/en/index.html].

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James, W. Philip T., Rachel Jackson-Leach , Cliona Ni Mhurchu, Eleni Kalamara, Maryam Shayeghi, Neville J. Rigby, Chizuru Nishida, and Anthony Rodgers. 2004.  “Overweight and obesity (high body mass index).” In Majid Ezzati, Alan D. Lopez, Anthony Rodgers and Christopher J.L. Murray, eds., ''Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors.'' Geneva: World Health Organization, 959-1108.

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== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Infrastructure Bibliography</span> ==

Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Tarik M. Yousef. 2007. “Public Infrastructure and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa.” In Mustapha Kamel Nabli, ed.,. Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth: Better Governance and Deeper Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications, 399–422.

Asian Development Bank, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, and World Bank. 2005. ''Connecting East Asia: A New Framework for Infrastructure''. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, and World Bank. [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/Resources/Connecting-East-Asia.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/Resources/Connecting-East-Asia.pdf].

Bhattacharyay, Biswa Nath. 2010. “Estimating Demand for Infrastructure in Energy, Transport, Telecommunications, Water and Sanitation in Asia and the Pacific: 2010-2020”. Working Paper no. 248. Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo. [http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2010/09/09/4062.infrastructure.demand.asia.pacific/ http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2010/09/09/4062.infrastructure.demand.asia.pacific/].

Bruinsma, Jelle. 2011. “The Resources Outlook: By How Much Do Land, Water and Crop Yields Need to Increase by 2050?” In Piero Conforti, ed.,. ''Looking Ahead in World Food and Agriculture: Perspectives to 2050''. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 233–275. [http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2280e/i2280e.pdf http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2280e/i2280e.pdf].

Calderón, César, and Luis Servén. 2010a. “Infrastructure and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.” ''Journal of African Economies'' 19(Supplement 1): i13–i87. doi:10.1093/jae/ejp022. [http://jae.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/19/suppl_1/i13 http://jae.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/19/suppl_1/i13].

Calderón, César, and Luis Servén. 2010b. “Infrastructure in Latin America”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. Report Number 5317. World Bank, Washington, DC.

Canning, David. 1998. “A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure, 1950-1995.” ''The World Bank Economic Review'' 12(3): 529–548.

Canning, David, and Mansour Farahani. 2007. “A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure: Update 1950-2005”. Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA. [http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/david-canning/data-sets/ http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/david-canning/data-sets/].

Cavallo, Eduardo Alfredo, and Christian Daude. 2008. “Public Investment in Developing Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?” RES Working Paper #4597. Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) - Research Department, OECD, Washington, DC.

Chatterton, Isabe, and Olga S. Puerto. 2006. ''Estimation of Infrastructure Investment Needs in the South Asia Region: Executive Summary''. Washington, DC: World Bank. [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSARREGTOPTRANSPORT/Resources/Inf_Investment_Needs_IC_version4.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSARREGTOPTRANSPORT/Resources/Inf_Investment_Needs_IC_version4.pdf].

Congressional Budget Office. 2010. ''Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure''. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office. [http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21902 http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21902].

Estache, Antonio, and Ana Goicoechea. 2005. “A Research Database on Infrastructure Economic Performance”. Policy Research Working Paper no. 3643. World Bank, Washington, DC. [http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/06/16/000016406_20050616100502/Rendered/PDF/wps3643.pdf http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/06/16/000016406_20050616100502/Rendered/PDF/wps3643.pdf].

Ezzati, Majid, Alan D. Lopez, Anthony Rodgers, and Christopher J. L. Murray, eds. 2004. ''Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors''. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization (WHO).

Fay, Marianne. 2001. “Financing the Future: Infrastructure Needs in Latin America, 2000-05”. Policy Research Working Paper no. 2545. World Bank, Washington, DC. [http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/2545.pdf?expires=1375200693&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=DB7E5FB146EE28C93511B5ADAB2FD3CB http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/2545.pdf?expires=1375200693&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=DB7E5FB146EE28C93511B5ADAB2FD3CB].

Fay, Marianne, and Tito Yepes. 2003. “Investing in Infrastructure: What Is Needed from 2000 to 2010?” Policy Research Working Paper no. 3102. World Bank, Washington, DC. RePEc. [http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3102.html http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3102.html].

Hughes, Barry B. 2007. “Forecasting Global Economic Growth with Endogenous Multifactor Productivity: The International Futures (IFs) Approach”. Pardee Center for International Futures Working Paper, University of Denver. Denver, CO. [http://www.ifs.du.edu/documents/reports.aspx www.ifs.du.edu/documents/reports.aspx].

Hughes, Barry B., Devin Joshi, Jonathan Moyer, Timothy Sisk and José Roberto Solórzano. 2014. Strengthening Governance Globally. vol. 5, Patterns of Potential Human Progress series. Boulder, CO, and New Delhi, India: Paradigm Publishers and Oxford University Press.

Hughes, Gordon, Paul Chinowsky, and Ken Strzepek. 2009. “The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure”. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Discussion Paper no. 2. World Bank, Washington, DC.

International Transport Forum, and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2011. “Trends in Transport Infrastructure Investment 1995-2009”. Paris.

Kohli, Harpaul Alberto, and Phillip Basil. 2011. “Requirements for Infrastructure Investment in Latin America Under Alternate Growth Scenarios.” ''Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies'' 3(1): 59 –110. doi:10.1177/097491011000300103. [http://eme.sagepub.com/content/3/1/59.abstract http://eme.sagepub.com/content/3/1/59.abstract].

Kim, M. Julie, and Rita Nangia. 2010. “Infrastructure Development in India and China—A Comparative Analysis.” In William Ascher and Corinne Krupp, eds.,. ''Physical Infrastructure Development: Balancing The Growth, Equity, and Environmental Imperatives''. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 97–140.

Lora, Eduardo A. 2007. ''Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit?'' Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) - Research Department.

Nelson, Gerald C., Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy B. Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You. 2010. ''Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options''. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. [http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-security-farming-and-climate-change-2050 http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-security-farming-and-climate-change-2050].

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2006. ''Infrastructure to 2030 Volume 1: Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity''. Infrastructure to 2030. Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

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== [[Development_Mode_Features|Development Mode Features]] ==