August 2016 model validation and verification (version 7.23) - Revision history

Wikiadmin at 09:41, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:41:49Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:41, 16 September 2016
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	#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">		#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">
	~~</ol>~~
	*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials		*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials
	*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)		*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)

Wikiadmin at 09:41, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:41:25Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:41, 16 September 2016
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	#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">		#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">
	</ol~~></ol>~~		</ol>

	*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials		*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials
	*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)		*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)

Wikiadmin at 09:41, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:41:13Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:41, 16 September 2016
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	#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">		#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">
	</ol></ol>		</ol></ol>
	~~</ol>~~
	~~</ol> </ol> </ol>~~

	*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials		*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials

Wikiadmin at 09:40, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:40:26Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:40, 16 September 2016
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	This page contains an overview of the model validating and verification of IFs version 7.23 in August 2016. For more detailed analysis of the results, please refer to the excel spreadsheet available here [[Media:ModelVettingNotesV723.xlsx\|here]]		This page contains an overview of the model validating and verification of IFs version 7.23 in August 2016. For more detailed analysis of the results, please refer to the excel spreadsheet available here [[Media:ModelVettingNotesV723.xlsx\|here]].

	= Population module =		= Population module =
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	</ol></ol>		</ol></ol>
	</ol>		</ol>
	</ol> </ol>		</ol> </ol> </ol>

	*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials		*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials

Wikiadmin at 09:40, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:40:11Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:40, 16 September 2016
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	This page contains an overview of the model validating and verification of IFs version 7.23 in August 2016. For more detailed analysis of the results, please refer to the excel spreadsheet available here [[Media:ModelVettingNotesV723.xlsx\|~~Media:ModelVettingNotesV723.xlsx~~]]		This page contains an overview of the model validating and verification of IFs version 7.23 in August 2016. For more detailed analysis of the results, please refer to the excel spreadsheet available here [[Media:ModelVettingNotesV723.xlsx\|here]]

	= Population module =		= Population module =
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	</ol></ol>		</ol></ol>
	</ol>		</ol>
	</ol>		</ol> </ol>

	*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials		*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials

Wikiadmin at 09:39, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:39:56Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:39, 16 September 2016
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	This page contains an overview of the model validating and verification of IFs version 7.23 in August 2016. For more detailed analysis of the results, please refer to the excel spreadsheet ~~attached.~~		This page contains an overview of the model validating and verification of IFs version 7.23 in August 2016. For more detailed analysis of the results, please refer to the excel spreadsheet available here [[Media:ModelVettingNotesV723.xlsx\|Media:ModelVettingNotesV723.xlsx]]

	= Population module =		= Population module =
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	</ol></ol>		</ol></ol>
	</ol>		</ol>
			</ol>

	*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials		*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials
	*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)		*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)

Wikiadmin at 09:35, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:35:59Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:35, 16 September 2016
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			This page contains an overview of the model validating and verification of IFs version 7.23 in August 2016. For more detailed analysis of the results, please refer to the excel spreadsheet attached.

	= Population module =		= Population module =

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	#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">		#All of the transients in the initial year identified throughout this document<ol style="list-style-type:lower-alpha;">
	</ol></ol>		</ol></ol>
			</ol>
	*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials		*There are transients in almost every module but VADD sticks out because there are likely conceptual model issues that need to be addressed i.e. that energy value added is manufacturing less materials
	*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)		*All “strange’ behaviour in later years in the forecasts (see above)

Wikiadmin at 09:32, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:32:48Z

Show changes

Wikiadmin at 09:25, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:25:28Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:25, 16 September 2016
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	We looked at all types of death and life expectancy as the key variables.		We looked at all types of death and life expectancy as the key variables.

	~~ ~~		== Face validity ==

	~~== [[Face_validity_(version_7.23)\|Face validity]] ==~~		'''Traffic'''

	~~=== [[Traffic_(version_7.23)\|~~Traffic~~]] ===~~

	Looks good		Looks good

	~~=== [[Communicable_disease_(other)_(version_7.23)\|~~Communicable disease (other)~~]] ===~~		'''Communicable disease (other)'''

	Small spike in South Sudan in 2016. Spike in Sierra Leone in 2015. Increase in Equatorial Guinea in 2021.		Small spike in South Sudan in 2016. Spike in Sierra Leone in 2015. Increase in Equatorial Guinea in 2021.

	~~=== [[Non-Communicable_Disease_(NCD)_(version_7.23)\|~~Non-Communicable Disease (NCD)~~]] ===~~		'''Non-Communicable Disease (NCD)'''

	Steep incline in Hong Kong and Taiwan.		Steep incline in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

	~~=== [[Diabetes_(version_7.23)\|~~Diabetes~~]] ===~~		'''Diabetes'''

	Kosovo jumps around especially after 2090. Mauritius much higher than other island nations.		Kosovo jumps around especially after 2090. Mauritius much higher than other island nations.

	~~=== [[Malignant_neoplasm_(version_7.23)\|~~Malignant neoplasm~~]] ===~~		'''Malignant neoplasm'''

	Large increase in Zimbabwe. Large increase in Qatar and UAE for men.		Large increase in Zimbabwe. Large increase in Qatar and UAE for men.

	~~=== [[Cardiovascular_(version_7.23)\|~~Cardiovascular~~]] ===~~		'''Cardiovascular'''

	Spike in 2015 in Ukraine. Spike in 2015 in Belarus. Large increase then decrease for men in UAE.		Spike in 2015 in Ukraine. Spike in 2015 in Belarus. Large increase then decrease for men in UAE.

	~~=== [[Digestive_(version_7.23)\|~~Digestive~~]] ===~~		'''Digestive'''

	Spike in 2015 for men in Sierra Leone. Moldova very high and peak in 2051.		Spike in 2015 for men in Sierra Leone. Moldova very high and peak in 2051.

	~~=== [[Respiratory_(version_7.23)\|~~Respiratory~~]] ===~~		'''Respiratory'''

	Spike in 2015 in Hong Kong and Taiwan for females. Kosovo much higher than other countries with a lot of jumping around.		Spike in 2015 in Hong Kong and Taiwan for females. Kosovo much higher than other countries with a lot of jumping around.

	~~=== [[Diarrhea_(version_7.23)\|~~Diarrhea~~]] ===~~		'''Diarrhea'''

	Spike in 2015 in Yemen and Sierra Leone. Jump in 2015 and 2016 for Equatorial Guinea.		Spike in 2015 in Yemen and Sierra Leone. Jump in 2015 and 2016 for Equatorial Guinea.

	~~=== [[Malaria_(version_7.23)\|~~Malaria~~]] ===~~		'''Malaria'''

	Spike in 2016 in South Sudan. Spike in 2015 in Sierra Leone. Spike in 2017 and then decrease in Chad. Increase until 2021 in Equatorial Guinea – almost all other countries decrease.		Spike in 2016 in South Sudan. Spike in 2015 in Sierra Leone. Spike in 2017 and then decrease in Chad. Increase until 2021 in Equatorial Guinea – almost all other countries decrease.

	~~=== [[Respiratory_infections_(version_7.23)\|~~Respiratory infections~~]] ===~~		'''Respiratory infections'''

	Spike in 2015 in Yemen. Spike in 2016 in South Sudan. Spike in 2015 in Sierra Leone. Large increase then steady decrease in Japan, Singapore, and Thailand. Spike in 2017 in Chad. Increase until 2021 in Equatorial Guinea. Decrease then an increase until 2053 in Seychelles.		Spike in 2015 in Yemen. Spike in 2016 in South Sudan. Spike in 2015 in Sierra Leone. Large increase then steady decrease in Japan, Singapore, and Thailand. Spike in 2017 in Chad. Increase until 2021 in Equatorial Guinea. Decrease then an increase until 2053 in Seychelles.

	~~=== [[Intended_injuries_(version_7.23)\|~~Intended injuries~~]] ===~~		'''Intended injuries'''

	Countries with high levels of intended injuries (Syria, El Salvador, and Guatemala) maintain these high levels or even increase until 2100.		Countries with high levels of intended injuries (Syria, El Salvador, and Guatemala) maintain these high levels or even increase until 2100.

	~~=== [[HIV/AIDS_(version_7.23)\|~~HIV/AIDS~~]] ===~~		'''HIV/AIDS'''

	Some countries increase – this “double bubble” is something we have been meaning to look into.		Some countries increase – this “double bubble” is something we have been meaning to look into.

	~~ ~~		'''Life expectancy'''

	~~=== [[Life_expectancy_(version_7.23)\|~~Life expectancy~~]] ===~~

	Drop in 2015 in Yemen, Sierra Leone, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Equatorial Guinea.		Drop in 2015 in Yemen, Sierra Leone, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Equatorial Guinea.

	~~=== [[Traces_(version_7.23)\|~~Traces~~]] ===~~		'''Traces'''

	Life expectancy for Malawi, Sierra Leone, Equatorial Guinea, Hong Kong, and Yemen is initialized higher than both the 2015 value (data) and the 2015 forecasted value. This is why it looks like there is a drop in 2015 for these countries.		Life expectancy for Malawi, Sierra Leone, Equatorial Guinea, Hong Kong, and Yemen is initialized higher than both the 2015 value (data) and the 2015 forecasted value. This is why it looks like there is a drop in 2015 for these countries.

	~~ ~~		== Comparison to other models ==

	== ~~[[Comparison_to_other_models_(version_7.23)\|~~Comparison to other models]] ==

	[See spreadsheet attached]		[See spreadsheet attached]
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	Overall, our initial death rates and forecasts are often very different from the data and forecast from the WHO Global Burden of Disease forecast.[[#_ftn9\|[9]]]		Overall, our initial death rates and forecasts are often very different from the data and forecast from the WHO Global Burden of Disease forecast.[[#_ftn9\|[9]]]

	~~ ~~		== Extreme conditions test ==

	== ~~[[Extreme_conditions_test_(version_7.23)\|~~Extreme conditions test]] ==

	Tests were run by increasing mortality rates for all diseases (hlmortm). The model behaves as expected – deaths increase dramatically and then decrease as the stock of people is diminished.		Tests were run by increasing mortality rates for all diseases (hlmortm). The model behaves as expected – deaths increase dramatically and then decrease as the stock of people is diminished.

	~~ ~~		== Sensitivity analysis ==

	== ~~[[Sensitivity_analysis_(version_7.23)\|~~Sensitivity analysis]] ==

	Sensitivity analysis was conducted on all types of disease and the model behaved as expected i.e. no large increases or decreases (see spreadsheet attached).		Sensitivity analysis was conducted on all types of disease and the model behaved as expected i.e. no large increases or decreases (see spreadsheet attached).

Wikiadmin at 09:23, 16 September 2016

2016-09-16T09:23:20Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:23, 16 September 2016
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	The biggest changes (in percentage points) in the initial year (2014) for VADD(agriculture) are: Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Trinidad, and UAE.		The biggest changes (in percentage points) in the initial year (2014) for VADD(agriculture) are: Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Trinidad, and UAE.

	~~====~~ Manufactures ~~====~~		Manufactures

	The biggest changes (in percentage points) in the initial year (2014) for VADD(manufactures) are: Micronesia, Timor-Leste, Gabon, Kuwait, and Hong Kong.		The biggest changes (in percentage points) in the initial year (2014) for VADD(manufactures) are: Micronesia, Timor-Leste, Gabon, Kuwait, and Hong Kong.

	~~====~~ Services ~~====~~		Services

	The biggest changes (in percentage points) in the initial year (2014) for VADD(services) are: Puerto Rico, Republic of Congo, Chad, Gabon, and Azerbaijan.		The biggest changes (in percentage points) in the initial year (2014) for VADD(services) are: Puerto Rico, Republic of Congo, Chad, Gabon, and Azerbaijan.