Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs) - Revision history

Taylor.Hanna: Merged newer edits (citation and Institute) with the bigger edit.

2025-01-13T22:36:30Z

Merged newer edits (citation and Institute) with the bigger edit.

Taylor.Hanna: Changed Pardee Center to Pardee Institute

2025-01-13T22:29:45Z

Changed Pardee Center to Pardee Institute

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Helen.Lee230: Updated with correct authors

2025-01-08T18:10:43Z

Updated with correct authors

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:10, 8 January 2025
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	Please cite as: ~~Hughes~~, Barry B., ~~José R. Solórzano~~, and ~~Dale S~~. ~~Rothman~~. 2024. "Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs)." Working paper 2024.06.06. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY.		Please cite as: Sara Turner, Carey Neill, Barry B. Hughes, Kanishka Narayan, Deva Sahadevan, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2024. "Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs)." Working paper 2024.06.06. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY.

Helen.Lee230: This is the citation only and doesn't contain the mass ScenGuide update

2025-01-07T22:29:31Z

This is the citation only and doesn't contain the mass ScenGuide update

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:29, 7 January 2025
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			Please cite as: Hughes, Barry B., José R. Solórzano, and Dale S. Rothman. 2024. "Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs)." Working paper 2024.06.06. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY.


	The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?).		The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?).

Helen.Lee230: Full update of the scenario guide, as soon as the wiki is updated need to fix hyperlinks.

2024-12-28T02:05:46Z

Full update of the scenario guide, as soon as the wiki is updated need to fix hyperlinks.

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Helen.Lee230: I've linked to the scenario guide here

2024-12-20T19:36:15Z

I've linked to the scenario guide here

Show changes

Pamela.Hoberman: Changes center to institute

2024-04-19T19:41:11Z

Changes center to institute

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Resourceteamedits: Undo revision 9408 by Mark.Meziere (talk)

2021-07-08T18:04:08Z

Undo revision 9408 by Mark.Meziere (talk)

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:04, 8 July 2021
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	The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?). This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.		The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?). This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.

	~~Test~~

	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">A Note on Parameter Names</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">A Note on Parameter Names</span> ==

Resourceteamedits: Undo revision 9409 by Resourceteamedits (talk)

2021-07-08T18:03:30Z

Undo revision 9409 by Resourceteamedits (talk)

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:03, 8 July 2021
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	The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?). This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.		The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?). This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.

	Test 2		Test

	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">A Note on Parameter Names</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">A Note on Parameter Names</span> ==

Resourceteamedits at 18:00, 8 July 2021

2021-07-08T18:00:10Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:00, 8 July 2021
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	The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?). This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.		The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?). This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.

	Test		Test 2

	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">A Note on Parameter Names</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">A Note on Parameter Names</span> ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:36, 13 January 2025
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	Please cite as: Sara Turner, Carey Neill, Barry B. Hughes, Kanishka Narayan, Deva Sahadevan, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2024. "Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs)." Working paper 2024.06.06. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY.		Please cite as: Sara Turner, Carey Neill, Barry B. Hughes, Kanishka Narayan, Deva Sahadevan, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2024. "Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs)." Working paper 2024.06.06. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY.


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	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Prepackaged Scenarios</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Prepackaged Scenarios</span> ==

	Three major integrated scenarios on health were developed by the Pardee ~~Institute~~ for the health volume of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series (Hughes et al., 2011). The World Integrated Scenario Sets folder contains the scenarios that were built for this volume, of which three are worth an extended discussion. The first is the Proximate Drivers Excluding Environment folder, which contains parameters to individually alter four of the major risk factors for several causes of mortality. These are Body Mass Index which is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease; under nutrition, which is a risk factor for communicable diseases; smoking which is a risk factor for respiratory disease; and large increases in the number of cars per person coupled with poor pedestrian safety, which is a major risk factor for accidental death. This scenario also includes increased to improved water sources and piped sanitation taken from the infrastructure module, and parameters to reduce environmental exposure to poor air quality. This scenario reduces these risk factors to their theoretical minima, to simulate aggressive efforts to reduce, high BMI, the obesity rate, childhood malnutrition, smoking, and traffic mortality. Malnutrition is set to 0.01, smoking and obesity multipliers are set to 0, BMI multiplier to 0.8, vehicle fleets to 0.5, and traffic mortality to 0.		Three major integrated scenarios on health were developed by the Pardee Center for the health volume of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series (Hughes et al., 2011). The World Integrated Scenario Sets folder contains the scenarios that were built for this volume, of which three are worth an extended discussion. The first is the Proximate Drivers Excluding Environment folder, which contains parameters to individually alter four of the major risk factors for several causes of mortality. These are Body Mass Index which is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease; under nutrition, which is a risk factor for communicable diseases; smoking which is a risk factor for respiratory disease; and large increases in the number of cars per person coupled with poor pedestrian safety, which is a major risk factor for accidental death. This scenario also includes increased to improved water sources and piped sanitation taken from the infrastructure module, and parameters to reduce environmental exposure to poor air quality. This scenario reduces these risk factors to their theoretical minima, to simulate aggressive efforts to reduce, high BMI, the obesity rate, childhood malnutrition, smoking, and traffic mortality. Malnutrition is set to 0.01, smoking and obesity multipliers are set to 0, BMI multiplier to 0.8, vehicle fleets to 0.5, and traffic mortality to 0.

	Another important pair of prepackaged scenarios contains the optimistic Luck and Enlightenment scenario, and a scenario that considers what happens when Things Go Wrong. The Luck and Enlightenment scenario includes improvements to HIV/AIDS, sanitation access, improved air quality, and reduced smoking rates which help lower the burden of NCDs. It also features changes to the burden of communicable disease designed to increase the levels of these. A variation to Luck and Enlightenment has add-ins that also increase foreign aid donations and agricultural yields, effectively modeling a situation in which increased global cooperation supports these efforts. Things Go Wrong models a world in which air quality worsens, smoking and obesity rates increase and there is little international cooperation on addressing these challenges.		Another important pair of prepackaged scenarios contains the optimistic Luck and Enlightenment scenario, and a scenario that considers what happens when Things Go Wrong. The Luck and Enlightenment scenario includes improvements to HIV/AIDS, sanitation access, improved air quality, and reduced smoking rates which help lower the burden of NCDs. It also features changes to the burden of communicable disease designed to increase the levels of these. A variation to Luck and Enlightenment has add-ins that also increase foreign aid donations and agricultural yields, effectively modeling a situation in which increased global cooperation supports these efforts. Things Go Wrong models a world in which air quality worsens, smoking and obesity rates increase and there is little international cooperation on addressing these challenges.
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	While the three dimensions represent distinct facets of governance, they are tightly interrelated. Indeed, the drivers of security, capacity and inclusion often overlap. For example, gender empowerment, a sub-dimension of inclusion, drives security’s vulnerability to conflict index and capacity’s corruption index. And the three composite indices—'''GOVINDSECUR, GOVINDCAPAC '''and '''GOVINDINCLUS'''—interact bi-directionally with each other. Beyond the sub-module, strong relationships link the key governance indices and other measures of human well-being, represented by GDP per capita and the Human Development Index (HDI). For instance, economic freedom ('''ECONFREE''') links forward to multifactor productivity ('''MFP''') and thus on to broader economic growth. And conversely, other systems affect governance forecasts, as evidenced by the relationship between levels of per capita income and '''HDI''' and '''DEMOCPOLITY'''—higher levels of well-being lead to increased pressure for democracy.		While the three dimensions represent distinct facets of governance, they are tightly interrelated. Indeed, the drivers of security, capacity and inclusion often overlap. For example, gender empowerment, a sub-dimension of inclusion, drives security’s vulnerability to conflict index and capacity’s corruption index. And the three composite indices—'''GOVINDSECUR, GOVINDCAPAC '''and '''GOVINDINCLUS'''—interact bi-directionally with each other. Beyond the sub-module, strong relationships link the key governance indices and other measures of human well-being, represented by GDP per capita and the Human Development Index (HDI). For instance, economic freedom ('''ECONFREE''') links forward to multifactor productivity ('''MFP''') and thus on to broader economic growth. And conversely, other systems affect governance forecasts, as evidenced by the relationship between levels of per capita income and '''HDI''' and '''DEMOCPOLITY'''—higher levels of well-being lead to increased pressure for democracy.

	The tri-part conceptualization of governance originated in the Pardee ~~Institute’s~~ analysis of historical trends, as discussed in ''Potential Patterns of Human Progress'': ''Strengthening Governance Globally (''Hughes et al. (2014)). Over time, the story of governance has unfolded differently in countries across the world—some countries have developed security, capacity and inclusiveness sequentially, and some countries have developed all three dimensions simultaneously. A suite of parameters attached to the sub-dimensions of each dimension allows users to explore a range of potential patterns of global governance.		The tri-part conceptualization of governance originated in the Pardee Institute's analysis of historical trends, as discussed in ''Potential Patterns of Human Progress'': ''Strengthening Governance Globally (''Hughes et al. (2014)). Over time, the story of governance has unfolded differently in countries across the world—some countries have developed security, capacity and inclusiveness sequentially, and some countries have developed all three dimensions simultaneously. A suite of parameters attached to the sub-dimensions of each dimension allows users to explore a range of potential patterns of global governance.

	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Parameters to Affect Security</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Parameters to Affect Security</span> ==
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	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Prepackaged Scenarios</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Prepackaged Scenarios</span> ==

	An installation of IFs includes scenarios used in each entry in the Pardee ~~Institute’s~~ Potential Patterns of Human Progress (PPHP) series. Scenarios created for the governance volume include: a high conflict scenario; a scenario representing challenges to the world’s governments; a set of scenarios that speed up economic growth via multifactor productivity; and, finally, a set of government strengthening scenarios. This section will briefly describe the parameter interventions used to construct several of the enhanced government scenarios, located in the folder Strengthened Governance.		An installation of IFs includes scenarios used in each entry in the Pardee Institute's Potential Patterns of Human Progress (PPHP) series. Scenarios created for the governance volume include: a high conflict scenario; a scenario representing challenges to the world’s governments; a set of scenarios that speed up economic growth via multifactor productivity; and, finally, a set of government strengthening scenarios. This section will briefly describe the parameter interventions used to construct several of the enhanced government scenarios, located in the folder Strengthened Governance.

	The collection of governance scenarios includes one scenario for each of the three dimensions: Strengthened Security, Strengthened Capacity SE1 and Strengthened Inclusiveness SE1. Each scenario includes a single parameter shift that targets one sub-dimension of security, capacity, or inclusion. Users wishing to load the three interventions simultaneously can select the combined scenario, Strengthened Governance SE1. The boost to capacity operates through '''govrevm''', the multiplier tied to the revenue sub-dimension of capacity; the parameter is set to 1.1 for the majority of the forecast horizon, raising revenue collection each year. The intervention in inclusion targets the democracy sub-dimension. For the entire forecast horizon, from 2010 to 2100, '''democpolitysetar''' is set to 1, establishing an improvement target in democracy levels of one standard error. As the corresponding year parameter, '''democpolityseyrtar''', is not changed, it takes on its default value of 10.0. This means that the target of one standard error will be reached in 10 years. The final intervention simulates a decline in intra-state violence the world over. The additive factor '''sfintlwaradd''' interpolates from 0 to -1 over thirty years; after reaching negative 1, it remains at that value through 2100.		The collection of governance scenarios includes one scenario for each of the three dimensions: Strengthened Security, Strengthened Capacity SE1 and Strengthened Inclusiveness SE1. Each scenario includes a single parameter shift that targets one sub-dimension of security, capacity, or inclusion. Users wishing to load the three interventions simultaneously can select the combined scenario, Strengthened Governance SE1. The boost to capacity operates through '''govrevm''', the multiplier tied to the revenue sub-dimension of capacity; the parameter is set to 1.1 for the majority of the forecast horizon, raising revenue collection each year. The intervention in inclusion targets the democracy sub-dimension. For the entire forecast horizon, from 2010 to 2100, '''democpolitysetar''' is set to 1, establishing an improvement target in democracy levels of one standard error. As the corresponding year parameter, '''democpolityseyrtar''', is not changed, it takes on its default value of 10.0. This means that the target of one standard error will be reached in 10 years. The final intervention simulates a decline in intra-state violence the world over. The additive factor '''sfintlwaradd''' interpolates from 0 to -1 over thirty years; after reaching negative 1, it remains at that value through 2100.