Infrastructure - Revision history

Wikiadmin at 18:13, 7 September 2018

2018-09-07T18:13:42Z

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	This leaves us needing to rely on national, regional, and global studies and reports that provide estimates of infrastructure spending. Given their varied purposes, these studies and reports tend to differ in a number of significant dimensions: temporal coverage; types of infrastructure included; sources of funding (e.g., public versus private); and purpose of expenditure (e.g., new construction versus maintenance). Therefore, we need to be careful in comparing data across studies and in drawing conclusions from them. Even so, they provide a starting point for our exploration. The following table lists a number of these studies and summarizes some of the major elements in their approaches.		This leaves us needing to rely on national, regional, and global studies and reports that provide estimates of infrastructure spending. Given their varied purposes, these studies and reports tend to differ in a number of significant dimensions: temporal coverage; types of infrastructure included; sources of funding (e.g., public versus private); and purpose of expenditure (e.g., new construction versus maintenance). Therefore, we need to be careful in comparing data across studies and in drawing conclusions from them. Even so, they provide a starting point for our exploration. The following table lists a number of these studies and summarizes some of the major elements in their approaches.

	{\| class="tableGrid" style="~~width~~: ~~750px~~; height: 1011px; ~~border~~: ~~1px solid #cccccc~~" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5"		{\| class="tableGrid" style="border:1px solid #cccccc;height:1011px;width:750px;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1"
	\|-		\|-
	\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px; height: 5px" valign="middle" align="center" \| '''Study'''		\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px; height: 5px" valign="middle" align="center" \| '''Study'''
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	\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px" scope="rowgroup" valign="middle" \| Not stated<br/>		\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px" scope="rowgroup" valign="middle" \| Not stated<br/>
	\|}		\|}
	</div>
			</div>

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =

Wikiadmin at 18:12, 7 September 2018

2018-09-07T18:12:56Z

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	In terms of historical data on infrastructure stocks and access, we can turn to various international organizations with specific emphases. These include the International Road Federation (IRF) for transportation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) for energy, and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for telecommunications. No one organization focuses on water and sanitation systems, but a number of different organizations, such as the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) of WHO and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Statistics Division, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), maintain global data related to certain aspects of water infrastructure. The table below summarizes a number of the datasets these groups maintain.		In terms of historical data on infrastructure stocks and access, we can turn to various international organizations with specific emphases. These include the International Road Federation (IRF) for transportation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) for energy, and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for telecommunications. No one organization focuses on water and sanitation systems, but a number of different organizations, such as the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) of WHO and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Statistics Division, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), maintain global data related to certain aspects of water infrastructure. The table below summarizes a number of the datasets these groups maintain.

	{\| class="tableGrid" style="~~width: 100%;~~ border: 1px solid #cccccc" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5"		{\| class="tableGrid" style="border:1px solid #cccccc;width:100%;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1"
	\|-		\|-
	\| style="text-align: center" valign="middle" align="center" \| '''Infrastructure Type'''		\| style="text-align: center" valign="middle" align="center" \| '''Infrastructure Type'''

Wikiadmin at 18:12, 7 September 2018

2018-09-07T18:12:17Z

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	The table below summarizes the primary variables in IFs related to infrastructure stocks and access. From these and other variables forecasted by IFs, we are able to calculate numerous other indicators—for example, the number of persons with access to electricity.		The table below summarizes the primary variables in IFs related to infrastructure stocks and access. From these and other variables forecasted by IFs, we are able to calculate numerous other indicators—for example, the number of persons with access to electricity.

	{\| class="tableGrid" style="~~width: 100%;~~ border: 1px solid #cccccc" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5"		{\| class="tableGrid" style="border:1px solid #cccccc;width:100%;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1"
	\|-		\|-
	\| style="text-align: center" \|		\| style="text-align: center" \|

Wikiadmin at 22:26, 6 September 2018

2018-09-06T22:26:43Z

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			Please cite as: Rothman, Dale. S., and Mohammod T. Irfan. 2013. "IFs Infrastructure Model Documentation ." Working paper 2013.07.22. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY <https://pardee.du.edu/wiki/Infrastructure>

	The most recent and complete infrastructure model documentation is available on Pardee's [http://pardee.du.edu/ifs-infrastructure-model-documentation website]. Although the text in this interactive system is, for some IFs models, often significantly out of date, you may still find the basic description useful to you.		The most recent and complete infrastructure model documentation is available on Pardee's [http://pardee.du.edu/ifs-infrastructure-model-documentation website]. Although the text in this interactive system is, for some IFs models, often significantly out of date, you may still find the basic description useful to you.

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	\|}		\|}
	</div>		</div>

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =

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	*''value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance''		*''value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance''
	*''cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.70''		*''cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.70''
	</div>
			</div>

	= <span style="font-size:x-large;">Infrastructure Bibliography</span> =		= <span style="font-size:x-large;">Infrastructure Bibliography</span> =

Wikiadmin at 22:25, 6 September 2018

2018-09-06T22:25:39Z

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	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Structure and Agent System: Infrastructure</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Structure and Agent System: Infrastructure</span> =

	{\| class="tableGrid" style="width: 100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="0"		{\| class="tableGrid" style="width:100%;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="1"
	\|-		\|-
	\| style="width: 50%" \| <div>'''System/Subsystem'''</div>		\| style="width: 50%" \| <div>'''System/Subsystem'''</div>
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	\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px" scope="rowgroup" valign="middle" \| Not stated<br/>		\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px" scope="rowgroup" valign="middle" \| Not stated<br/>
	\|}		\|}
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	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =

Wikiadmin at 22:25, 6 September 2018

2018-09-06T22:25:20Z

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	~~=== <span style="font-size:medium;">Overview</span> ===~~

	The most recent and complete infrastructure model documentation is available on Pardee's [http://pardee.du.edu/ifs-infrastructure-model-documentation website]. Although the text in this interactive system is, for some IFs models, often significantly out of date, you may still find the basic description useful to you.		The most recent and complete infrastructure model documentation is available on Pardee's [http://pardee.du.edu/ifs-infrastructure-model-documentation website]. Although the text in this interactive system is, for some IFs models, often significantly out of date, you may still find the basic description useful to you.

JessRettig at 22:11, 7 September 2017

2017-09-07T22:11:33Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:11, 7 September 2017
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	*''cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.70''		*''cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.70''
	</div>		</div>
	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Infrastructure Bibliography</span> ==		= <span style="font-size:x-large;">Infrastructure Bibliography</span> =

	Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Tarik M. Yousef. 2007. “Public Infrastructure and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa.” In Mustapha Kamel Nabli, ed.,. Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth: Better Governance and Deeper Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications, 399–422.		Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Tarik M. Yousef. 2007. “Public Infrastructure and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa.” In Mustapha Kamel Nabli, ed.,. Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth: Better Governance and Deeper Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications, 399–422.

JessRettig at 22:11, 7 September 2017

2017-09-07T22:11:11Z

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 Our choices of the driving variables ultimately included in the equations were influenced by theoretical considerations, previous efforts, the availability of data, and, of course, the analytical results themselves. These factors also influenced our choices of functional forms. In particular, for variables that have natural minimums and maximums, such as the percentage of population with access to electricity, we use functional forms that guarantee that the forecasted values fall in this range.
-The basic equations shown below provide only the initial estimates of the expected levels of the specific infrastructure stock or access.&nbsp;[[Understand IFs#Specialized Functions|The final values are adjusted based upon a number of algorithmic and scenario-specific processes, including the use of shift factors, multipliers, extrapolative formulations, targeting processes.]]&nbsp;Some key aspects of these algorithmic processes, including key parameters available to the user for scenario development, are provided below the definitions of the variables used in the basic equations. Finally, the nature of the data used for estimation, the model fitted, and the R-squared values for a fit of the predicted against the actual historical values used for our estimations are also provided.
+The basic equations shown below provide only the initial estimates of the expected levels of the specific infrastructure stock or access.&nbsp;[[Understand_IFs#Specialized_Functions|The final values are adjusted based upon a number of algorithmic and scenario-specific processes, including the use of shift factors, multipliers, extrapolative formulations, targeting processes.]]&nbsp;Some key aspects of these algorithmic processes, including key parameters available to the user for scenario development, are provided below the definitions of the variables used in the basic equations. Finally, the nature of the data used for estimation, the model fitted, and the R-squared values for a fit of the predicted against the actual historical values used for our estimations are also provided.
 As with the flow charts, this section presents the equations grouped by the four categories of infrastructure: transportation, electricity, water and sanitation, and ICT. Unless specified otherwise, in all of the following equations, the subscripts r and t refer to region/country and time/year, respectively.&nbsp;
-For help understanding the equations see [[Understand IFs#Equation Notation|Notation]].
+For help understanding the equations see [[Understand_IFs#Equation_Notation|Notation]].
 == <span style="font-size:x-large;">Equations: Transportation Infrastructure</span> ==
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 *''value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance''
 *''cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.70''

EmoryFerguson at 22:40, 14 August 2017

2017-08-14T22:40:11Z

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	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">1. Estimating the Expected Levels of Infrastructure</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">1. Estimating the Expected Levels of Infrastructure</span> ==

	At the core of our forecasts of the expected levels of infrastructure is a set of estimated equations embedded within a set of accounting relationships. The equations are presented [[Infrastructure#~~Infrastructure Equations~~\|here]].		At the core of our forecasts of the expected levels of infrastructure is a set of estimated equations embedded within a set of accounting relationships. The equations are presented [[Infrastructure#Infrastructure_Equations\|here]].

	Additional elements beyond the estimated equations are involved in specifying the expected values of infrastructure, and we handle some of these elements algorithmically. For instance, the base year calculated estimations will most often not match exactly the historical data for countries in the base year.<sup>[1]</sup> Each country has peculiarities that differentiate it from the “typical pattern”; among the factors not captured by our equations for estimating the base year country values are many aspects of geography, culture, and unique historical development paths. And sometimes, of course, data errors account for such differences.		Additional elements beyond the estimated equations are involved in specifying the expected values of infrastructure, and we handle some of these elements algorithmically. For instance, the base year calculated estimations will most often not match exactly the historical data for countries in the base year.<sup>[1]</sup> Each country has peculiarities that differentiate it from the “typical pattern”; among the factors not captured by our equations for estimating the base year country values are many aspects of geography, culture, and unique historical development paths. And sometimes, of course, data errors account for such differences.
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	A second instance in which we make adjustments to our core estimated equations is when the dynamic trajectory of demand/supply growth in a country in recent years is inconsistent with the forecasts produced by the equations. For instance, a policy-based surge of infrastructure development like that seen recently in China may result in a historical growth rate well above the one that our functions produce in the first years of our forecasting. Making a simplifying assumption that these growth rates will change only gradually, we estimate the growth rate of physical infrastructure stock using the historical data over three to five recent years and incorporate that growth rate in the demand estimation through a moving average-based extrapolative formulation.		A second instance in which we make adjustments to our core estimated equations is when the dynamic trajectory of demand/supply growth in a country in recent years is inconsistent with the forecasts produced by the equations. For instance, a policy-based surge of infrastructure development like that seen recently in China may result in a historical growth rate well above the one that our functions produce in the first years of our forecasting. Making a simplifying assumption that these growth rates will change only gradually, we estimate the growth rate of physical infrastructure stock using the historical data over three to five recent years and incorporate that growth rate in the demand estimation through a moving average-based extrapolative formulation.

	We make a final adjustment in those cases where we wish to modify the estimates of expected infrastructure for scenario analysis. This can be accomplished in several ways. First, most of the estimates can be adjusted with the use of a simple multiplier. Second, we can stipulate specific levels for specific types of infrastructure in a specific future year; in this case, the model will automatically forecast a linear approach to the targeted level from the base year. Third, we can modify both the rates at which the country shift factors converge and the levels, in relation to the expected values, to which the shift factors converge. For example, we can drive the shift factors to those of the best performing countries, i.e., those that perform better than expected, by a certain date. This will, in turn, affect the levels to which the physical infrastructures themselves converge (see [[~~Understand IFs~~#~~Standard Error Targeting~~\|Standard Error Targeting]]).		We make a final adjustment in those cases where we wish to modify the estimates of expected infrastructure for scenario analysis. This can be accomplished in several ways. First, most of the estimates can be adjusted with the use of a simple multiplier. Second, we can stipulate specific levels for specific types of infrastructure in a specific future year; in this case, the model will automatically forecast a linear approach to the targeted level from the base year. Third, we can modify both the rates at which the country shift factors converge and the levels, in relation to the expected values, to which the shift factors converge. For example, we can drive the shift factors to those of the best performing countries, i.e., those that perform better than expected, by a certain date. This will, in turn, affect the levels to which the physical infrastructures themselves converge (see [[Understand_IFs#Standard_Error_Targeting\|Standard Error Targeting]]).

	=== <span style="font-size:medium;">Transportation</span> ===		=== <span style="font-size:medium;">Transportation</span> ===
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	\|}		\|}
	</div><br/>		</div><br/>

	== <span style="font-size:x-large;">3. Determining the Actual Funds for Infrastructure Spending</span> ==		== <span style="font-size:x-large;">3. Determining the Actual Funds for Infrastructure Spending</span> ==

EmoryFerguson at 22:31, 14 August 2017

2017-08-14T22:31:09Z

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	\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px" scope="rowgroup" valign="middle" \| Not stated<br/>		\| style="text-align: center; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px" scope="rowgroup" valign="middle" \| Not stated<br/>
	\|}		\|}

	~~</div>~~

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Dominant Relations: Infrastructure</span> =