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Interstate Politics (IP) - Revision history
2026-04-26T05:51:27Z
Revision history for this page on the wiki
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https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=9036&oldid=prev
Wikiadmin at 22:28, 6 September 2018
2018-09-06T22:28:26Z
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| style="width: 50%" | <div>'''System/Subsystem'''</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| style="width: 50%" | <div>'''System/Subsystem'''</div></div></td></tr>
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Wikiadmin
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=9035&oldid=prev
Wikiadmin at 22:28, 6 September 2018
2018-09-06T22:28:13Z
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<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 22:28, 6 September 2018</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1">Line 1:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The most recent and complete interstate politics model documentation is available on </del>Pardee<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">'s [http</del>://pardee.du.edu/<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">ifs-interstate-politics-model-documentation website]. Although the text in this interactive system is, for some IFs models, often significantly out of date, you may still find the basic description useful to you.</del></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Please cite as: Hughes, Barry&nbsp;B. 2014. "IFs Interstate Politics Model Documentation." Working paper 2014.02.17. </ins>Pardee <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies,&nbsp;University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY &lt;https</ins>://pardee.du.edu/<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">wiki/Interstate_Politics_(IP)&gt;</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The interstate politics module traces changes in power balances across states and regions,&nbsp;allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat, and&nbsp;represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries. For more on how this data may used and analyzed within IFs, please read below.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The interstate politics module traces changes in power balances across states and regions,&nbsp;allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat, and&nbsp;represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries. For more on how this data may used and analyzed within IFs, please read below.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Threat of states towards each other is a function of many determinants. For instance, contiguity or physical proximity creates contact and therefore the potential for both threat and peaceful interaction. Cultural similarities and differences affect threat levels. Yet certain factors are more subject to rapid change over time than are contiguity or culture. Among factors that change, the relative power of states and of their level of democratization substantially affect threat levels.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Threat of states towards each other is a function of many determinants. For instance, contiguity or physical proximity creates contact and therefore the potential for both threat and peaceful interaction. Cultural similarities and differences affect threat levels. Yet certain factors are more subject to rapid change over time than are contiguity or culture. Among factors that change, the relative power of states and of their level of democratization substantially affect threat levels.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For a causal diagram see [[<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics </del>(IP)#Power|Process: Power]]&nbsp;and&nbsp;[[<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics </del>(IP)#Threat_Level|Process: Threat Level]].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For a causal diagram see [[<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics_</ins>(IP)#Power|Process: Power]]&nbsp;and&nbsp;[[<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics_</ins>(IP)#Threat_Level|Process: Threat Level]].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For equations see [[<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics </del>(IP)#IP_Equations:_Power|IP Equations: Power]] and [[<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics </del>(IP)#IP_Equations:_Overview_of_Threat_Formulation|IP Equations: Threat Formulation]].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For equations see [[<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics_</ins>(IP)#IP_Equations:_Power|IP Equations: Power]] and [[<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics_</ins>(IP)#IP_Equations:_Overview_of_Threat_Formulation|IP Equations: Threat Formulation]].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Key dynamics are directly linked to the dominant relations</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Key dynamics are directly linked to the dominant relations</span> ==</div></td></tr>
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Wikiadmin
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7867&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:36, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:36:07Z
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:36, 14 August 2017</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>That probability is potentially enhanced by threat from an actor to a target country and also by the threat perceived by a target from an actor.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>That probability is potentially enhanced by threat from an actor to a target country and also by the threat perceived by a target from an actor.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP5.gif|frame|center|Visual representation of war probability ]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP5.gif|frame|center|Visual representation of war probability]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">War</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">War</span> ==</div></td></tr>
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EmoryFerguson
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7866&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:34, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:34:30Z
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:34, 14 August 2017</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Action/Reaction</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Action/Reaction</span> ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The model links the [[<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate Politics </del>(IP)#<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">IP Equations</del>: <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Overview of Threat Formulation</del>|threat indicator]] to an action-reaction dynamic only if the model user leaves the action-reaction switch (ACTREAON) at "1." Setting it to 0.0 will turn off action-reaction. When that switch is thrown, threat affects military spending in a process that can set up a positive feedback loop to increase or decrease the spending of acting and reacting countries or regions. The model calculates a multiplier on military spending (GKMUL) based on the level of threat (THREAT) in comparison with the initial level. Dyads have different reactivities to each other; the United States is not as concerned by an increase in British defense spending as by an increase in Chinese spending – in fact the U.S. might welcome the British increase and feel able to shave its own rather than increase it. A parameter (reac) gives the user control over this reactivity differential. In the GLOBUS modeling project, Dale Smith developed a formulation to endogenize such reactivity coefficients for dyads, in response to trade and other factors. Because the dyadic threat formulation of IFs already incorporates a very large number of dyadic and global factors, it would be redundant to build them into the reactivity parameter, which serves, instead, to provide the user some dyadic specific control over arms spending action/reaction. The addition of the number 10 to numerator and denominator in the formulation has a fundamentally technical basis – if there is a very low level of initial threat in a dyad (say Belgium and Ecuador), small changes in the numerator should not be permitted to give rise to large changes in the ratio and therefore the multiplier on defense spending.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The model links the [[<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Interstate_Politics_</ins>(IP)#<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">IP_Equations</ins>:<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">_Overview_of_Threat_Formulation</ins>|threat indicator]] to an action-reaction dynamic only if the model user leaves the action-reaction switch (ACTREAON) at "1." Setting it to 0.0 will turn off action-reaction. When that switch is thrown, threat affects military spending in a process that can set up a positive feedback loop to increase or decrease the spending of acting and reacting countries or regions. The model calculates a multiplier on military spending (GKMUL) based on the level of threat (THREAT) in comparison with the initial level. Dyads have different reactivities to each other; the United States is not as concerned by an increase in British defense spending as by an increase in Chinese spending – in fact the U.S. might welcome the British increase and feel able to shave its own rather than increase it. A parameter (reac) gives the user control over this reactivity differential. In the GLOBUS modeling project, Dale Smith developed a formulation to endogenize such reactivity coefficients for dyads, in response to trade and other factors. Because the dyadic threat formulation of IFs already incorporates a very large number of dyadic and global factors, it would be redundant to build them into the reactivity parameter, which serves, instead, to provide the user some dyadic specific control over arms spending action/reaction. The addition of the number 10 to numerator and denominator in the formulation has a fundamentally technical basis – if there is a very low level of initial threat in a dyad (say Belgium and Ecuador), small changes in the numerator should not be permitted to give rise to large changes in the ratio and therefore the multiplier on defense spending.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>:<math>GKMUL_{\gamma,ta{\gamma}}=\frac{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^t_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^{t-1}_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}</math></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>:<math>GKMUL_{\gamma,ta{\gamma}}=\frac{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^t_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^{t-1}_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}</math></div></td></tr>
</table>
EmoryFerguson
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7865&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:32, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:32:44Z
<p></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:32, 14 August 2017</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l287">Line 287:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 287:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Action/Reaction</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Action/Reaction</span> ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The model links the [<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">http</del>:<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">//www.du.edu/ifs/help/understand/interstate/equations/overviewthreat.html </del>threat indicator] to an action-reaction dynamic only if the model user leaves the action-reaction switch (ACTREAON) at "1." Setting it to 0.0 will turn off action-reaction. When that switch is thrown, threat affects military spending in a process that can set up a positive feedback loop to increase or decrease the spending of acting and reacting countries or regions. The model calculates a multiplier on military spending (GKMUL) based on the level of threat (THREAT) in comparison with the initial level. Dyads have different reactivities to each other; the United States is not as concerned by an increase in British defense spending as by an increase in Chinese spending – in fact the U.S. might welcome the British increase and feel able to shave its own rather than increase it. A parameter (reac) gives the user control over this reactivity differential. In the GLOBUS modeling project, Dale Smith developed a formulation to endogenize such reactivity coefficients for dyads, in response to trade and other factors. Because the dyadic threat formulation of IFs already incorporates a very large number of dyadic and global factors, it would be redundant to build them into the reactivity parameter, which serves, instead, to provide the user some dyadic specific control over arms spending action/reaction. The addition of the number 10 to numerator and denominator in the formulation has a fundamentally technical basis – if there is a very low level of initial threat in a dyad (say Belgium and Ecuador), small changes in the numerator should not be permitted to give rise to large changes in the ratio and therefore the multiplier on defense spending.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The model links the [<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[Interstate Politics (IP)#IP Equations</ins>: <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Overview of Threat Formulation|</ins>threat indicator<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">]</ins>] to an action-reaction dynamic only if the model user leaves the action-reaction switch (ACTREAON) at "1." Setting it to 0.0 will turn off action-reaction. When that switch is thrown, threat affects military spending in a process that can set up a positive feedback loop to increase or decrease the spending of acting and reacting countries or regions. The model calculates a multiplier on military spending (GKMUL) based on the level of threat (THREAT) in comparison with the initial level. Dyads have different reactivities to each other; the United States is not as concerned by an increase in British defense spending as by an increase in Chinese spending – in fact the U.S. might welcome the British increase and feel able to shave its own rather than increase it. A parameter (reac) gives the user control over this reactivity differential. In the GLOBUS modeling project, Dale Smith developed a formulation to endogenize such reactivity coefficients for dyads, in response to trade and other factors. Because the dyadic threat formulation of IFs already incorporates a very large number of dyadic and global factors, it would be redundant to build them into the reactivity parameter, which serves, instead, to provide the user some dyadic specific control over arms spending action/reaction. The addition of the number 10 to numerator and denominator in the formulation has a fundamentally technical basis – if there is a very low level of initial threat in a dyad (say Belgium and Ecuador), small changes in the numerator should not be permitted to give rise to large changes in the ratio and therefore the multiplier on defense spending.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>:<math>GKMUL_{\gamma,ta{\gamma}}=\frac{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^t_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^{t-1}_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}</math></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>:<math>GKMUL_{\gamma,ta{\gamma}}=\frac{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^t_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}{\sum^{ACT}(THREAT^{t-1}_{act,ta}*\mathbf{reac}_{act,ta{\gamma}}+10)}</math></div></td></tr>
</table>
EmoryFerguson
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7864&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:21, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:21:59Z
<p></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:21, 14 August 2017</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l107">Line 107:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 107:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Interstate Politics Equations</span> =</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Interstate Politics Equations</span> =</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For help understanding the equations see [[<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Understanding IFs</del>#<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Equation Notation</del>|Notation]].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For help understanding the equations see [[<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Understand_IFs</ins>#<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Equation_Notation</ins>|Notation]].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Power</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Power</span> ==</div></td></tr>
</table>
EmoryFerguson
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7863&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:21, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:21:33Z
<p></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:21, 14 August 2017</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l107">Line 107:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 107:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Interstate Politics Equations</span> =</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Interstate Politics Equations</span> =</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For help understanding the equations see [<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">http://www.du.edu/ifs/help/understand/equations/notation.html </del>Notation].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For help understanding the equations see [<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[Understanding IFs#Equation </ins>Notation<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">|Notation]</ins>].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Power</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">IP Equations: Power</span> ==</div></td></tr>
</table>
EmoryFerguson
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7862&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:19, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:19:03Z
<p></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:19, 14 August 2017</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l103">Line 103:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 103:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>We calculate damage for both conventional and nuclear power capabilities, as well as for civilian society (population and GDP).</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>We calculate damage for both conventional and nuclear power capabilities, as well as for civilian society (population and GDP).</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP6.gif|frame|center|<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">IP6.gif</del>]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP6.gif|frame|center|<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Visual representation of an outbreak of conventional war</ins>]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Interstate Politics Equations</span> =</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Interstate Politics Equations</span> =</div></td></tr>
</table>
EmoryFerguson
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7861&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:16, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:16:19Z
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:16, 14 August 2017</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l95">Line 95:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>That probability is potentially enhanced by threat from an actor to a target country and also by the threat perceived by a target from an actor.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>That probability is potentially enhanced by threat from an actor to a target country and also by the threat perceived by a target from an actor.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP5.gif|<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">border</del>|center|<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">IP5.gif</del>]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP5.gif|<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">frame</ins>|center|<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Visual representation of war probability </ins>]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">War</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">War</span> ==</div></td></tr>
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EmoryFerguson
https://pardeewiki.du.edu//index.php?title=Interstate_Politics_(IP)&diff=7860&oldid=prev
EmoryFerguson at 18:14, 14 August 2017
2017-08-14T18:14:04Z
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:14, 14 August 2017</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l87">Line 87:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>One of the most basic factors affecting interstate relations is the closeness or contiguity of two states (small states on different continents pose little or no threat to each other).</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>One of the most basic factors affecting interstate relations is the closeness or contiguity of two states (small states on different continents pose little or no threat to each other).</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP4.gif|<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">border</del>|center|<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">IP4.gif</del>]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:IP4.gif|<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">frame</ins>|center|<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Visual representation of non-power terms</ins>]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Probability of War</span> ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Probability of War</span> ==</div></td></tr>
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EmoryFerguson