Introduction to IFs - Revision history

Ethan.Sullivan: Grammatical updates; Bulleted list updates; Geographic-lists to include not on old wording

2025-01-15T00:39:14Z

Grammatical updates; Bulleted list updates; Geographic-lists to include not on old wording

Ethan.Sullivan: Updated some wording as Jonathan recommended; Aligned all hyperlinks to same formatting; And updated the Geographic Representation of the World section to align with the current versions of IFs.

2025-01-10T00:00:16Z

Updated some wording as Jonathan recommended; Aligned all hyperlinks to same formatting; And updated the Geographic Representation of the World section to align with the current versions of IFs.

Ethan.Sullivan: grammatical changes, and added some information on years

2024-12-02T21:36:40Z

grammatical changes, and added some information on years

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:36, 2 December 2024
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	The third generation produced three editions/major releases of IFs, each accompanied by a book also called International Futures (Hughes 1993, 1996, 1999). The second edition moved to a Visual Basic platform that allowed a much improved menu-driven interface, running under Windows. The third edition incorporated an early global mapping capability and an initial ability to do cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis.		The third generation produced three editions/major releases of IFs, each accompanied by a book also called International Futures (Hughes 1993, 1996, 1999). The second edition moved to a Visual Basic platform that allowed a much improved menu-driven interface, running under Windows. The third edition incorporated an early global mapping capability and an initial ability to do cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis.

	'''The fourth generation''' took shape since early 2000. It was heavily influenced by the usage of the model by several important organizations for policy-analysis. First, General Motors commissioned a specialized version of IFs named CoVaTrA (Consumer Values Trends Analysis) with a need for updated and extended demographic modeling and representation of value change. An alliance was established with the World Values Survey, directed by Ronald Inglehart, to create that version. Second, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency commissioned a specialized version named IFs for SAG. The work involved in preparing that greatly extended and enhanced the socio-political representations of the model, both domestic and international. Third, the European Commission sponsored a project named TERRA which has led to a specialized version named IFs for TERRA. IFs for TERRA work led to enhancements across the model, including improved representation of economic sectors, updated IO matrices and a basic Social Accounting Matrix, GINI and Lorenz curves, and preparing for extended environmental impact representation (drawing upon the Advanced Sustainability Analysis framework of the Finland Futures Research Center).		'''The fourth generation''' took shape since early 2000. It was heavily influenced by the usage of the model by several important organizations for policy-analysis. First, General Motors commissioned a specialized version of IFs named CoVaTrA (Consumer Values Trends Analysis) with a need for updated and extended demographic modeling and representation of value change. An alliance was established with the World Values Survey, directed by Ronald Inglehart, to create that version. Second, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency commissioned a specialized version named IFs for SAG. The work involved in preparing that greatly extended and enhanced the socio-political representations of the model, both domestic and international. Third, the European Commission sponsored a project named TERRA which has led to a specialized version named IFs for TERRA. The IFs for TERRA work led to enhancements across the model, including improved representation of economic sectors, updated IO matrices and a basic Social Accounting Matrix, GINI and Lorenz curves, and preparing for extended environmental impact representation (drawing upon the Advanced Sustainability Analysis framework of the Finland Futures Research Center).

	The fourth generation of IFs also had a heavy emphasis on enhancing usability. Ideas from Robert Pestel in the TERRA project led to the creation of a new tree-structure for scenario creation and management. Ideas from Ronald Inglehart led to the development of the Guided Use structure and a somewhat more game-like character within that structure. Inglehart also helped to arrange funding to support the programming of Guided Use through the European Union Center of the University of Michigan.		The fourth generation of IFs also had a heavy emphasis on enhancing usability. Ideas from Robert Pestel in the TERRA project led to the creation of a new tree-structure for scenario creation and management. Ideas from Ronald Inglehart led to the development of the Guided Use structure and a somewhat more game-like character within that structure. Inglehart also helped to arrange funding to support the programming of Guided Use through the European Union Center of the University of Michigan.
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	'''The fifth generation''' of IFs (from 2004-2009) focused on improving the model, its usability, and transparency. Model improvements included clearer and more extensive representations of the agent classes and their points of leverage, stemming from the desire to make the modeling system a more valuable scenario-testing and policy analysis tool. The further elaboration of the social accounting matrix, structure, the development of education and health sub-models, and the substantial redesign of an economic production function with endogenous multifactor productivity were all outcomes of this version.		'''The fifth generation''' of IFs (from 2004-2009) focused on improving the model, its usability, and transparency. Model improvements included clearer and more extensive representations of the agent classes and their points of leverage, stemming from the desire to make the modeling system a more valuable scenario-testing and policy analysis tool. The further elaboration of the social accounting matrix, structure, the development of education and health sub-models, and the substantial redesign of an economic production function with endogenous multifactor productivity were all outcomes of this version.

	Efforts to enhance the models usability included the addition of a number of specialized displays, such as those for seeing the social accounting matrices, to display progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, to explore poverty at different income levels, and to represent the educational attainment of population cohorts. Mapping and data analysis tools were also strengthened. The ability to drill down into select countries to explore futures at the state or province-level was also added. Packaged Displays and Flex Packaged Displays were introduced that allowed for the creation of very specific lists of countries/regions, groups or ~~Glists~~. Greater transparency came from adding the ability for users to access the flow charts, equations, and code underlying the model.		Efforts to enhance the models usability included the addition of a number of specialized displays, such as those for seeing the social accounting matrices, to display progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, to explore poverty at different income levels, and to represent the educational attainment of population cohorts. Mapping and data analysis tools were also strengthened. The ability to drill down into select countries to explore futures at the state or province-level was also added. Packaged Displays and Flex Packaged Displays were introduced that allowed for the creation of very specific lists of countries/regions, groups or G-lists. Greater transparency came from adding the ability for users to access the flow charts, equations, and code underlying the model.

	The fifth version was the first version of this software to be placed online due to the help of the National Intelligence Council (http://www.ifs.du.edu). New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.		The fifth version was the first version of this software to be placed online due to the help of the National Intelligence Council (http://www.ifs.du.edu). New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.

	'''The sixth generation''' of IFs revolved around the development of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series. The [https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/content/patterns-potential-human-progress PPHP] volumes, with their focus on major human development systems, spurred the further enhancement of the model’s major subsystems, especially population, economic (especially poverty representation), education, health, infrastructure, and governance. The supporting documentation required for the PPHP series also gave rise to efforts to create the most detailed documentation of the model to date.		'''The sixth generation''' of IFs began in 2010 and revolved around the development of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series. The [https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/content/patterns-potential-human-progress PPHP] volumes, with their focus on major human development systems, spurred the further enhancement of the model’s major subsystems, especially population, economic (especially poverty representation), education, health, infrastructure, and governance. The supporting documentation required for the PPHP series also gave rise to efforts to create the most detailed documentation of the model to date.

	'''The seventh generation''' officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts this version also had continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and usability. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version and it will increasingly become central to our work in the current generation.		'''The seventh generation''' officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts this version also had continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and usability. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version and it will increasingly become central to our work in the current generation.

Ethan.Sullivan: minor grammatical changes

2024-12-02T21:19:48Z

minor grammatical changes

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:19, 2 December 2024
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	* forecasts age, sex, and health indicators related to 15 causes of death modeled in IFs		* forecasts age, sex, and health indicators related to 15 causes of death modeled in IFs
	* causes of death ~~are split~~ into three cause groups: communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions; noncommunicable diseases; and injuries		* splits causes of death into three cause groups: communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions; noncommunicable diseases; and injuries
	* is driven by education, technology, and income		* is driven by education, technology, and income

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	* determines attainment and participation through the demand for education and the investment in education by governments		* determines attainment and participation through the demand for education and the investment in education by governments
	* has educational demand based on income while educational investment is a result of government spending		* has educational demand based on income while educational investment is a result of government spending
	* models dropout, completion, and transition to the next level of schooling ~~rates~~		* models the rates of dropout, completion, and transition to the next level of schooling

	The ~~implicit~~ '''[[Environment\|environmental]]''' model:		The '''[[Environment\|environmental]]''' model:
	*is distributed throughout the overall model		*is distributed throughout the overall model
	*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions		*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions

Ethan.Sullivan: removed periods for consistency with other bullets

2024-12-02T21:11:31Z

removed periods for consistency with other bullets

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:11, 2 December 2024
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	'''The IFs platform relies on core, underlying assumptions, including the following.'''		'''The IFs platform relies on core, underlying assumptions, including the following.'''

	*Global issues are becoming more significant as the scope of human interaction and human impact on the broader environment grow.		*Global issues are becoming more significant as the scope of human interaction and human impact on the broader environment grow
	*Goals and priorities for human systems are becoming clearer and are more frequently and consistently communicated.		*Goals and priorities for human systems are becoming clearer and are more frequently and consistently communicated
	*Understanding of the dynamics of human systems is improving rapidly.		*Understanding of the dynamics of human systems is improving rapidly
	*The domain of human choice and action is broadening.		*The domain of human choice and action is broadening

	'''Which issues can you investigate with IFs? Some examples include:'''		'''Which issues can you investigate with IFs? Some examples include:'''

Ethan.Sullivan: Changed "186 countries" to "188 countries throughout; Changed the year IFs begins computations form 2000 to 2020 but this may be wrong

2024-11-27T21:00:48Z

Changed "186 countries" to "188 countries throughout; Changed the year IFs begins computations form 2000 to 2020 but this may be wrong

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:00, 27 November 2024
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	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Geographic Representation of the World</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Geographic Representation of the World</span> =

	~~186~~ countries underpin the functioning of IFs and these countries can be displayed separately or as parts of larger groups that users can determine.		188 countries underpin the functioning of IFs and these countries can be displayed separately or as parts of larger groups that users can determine.

	''Below is a visual representation of how different entities are organized into Countries/Regions, Groups or Glists:''		''Below is a visual representation of how different entities are organized into Countries/Regions, Groups or Glists:''
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	When using IFs, there are many occasions where the user is asked whether or not they would like to display their results as a product of single countries, or larger groups. This is typically a toggle switch that moves between Country/Region and Groups, however, it might be a three-way-toggle that includes Country/Region, Group and Glist.		When using IFs, there are many occasions where the user is asked whether or not they would like to display their results as a product of single countries, or larger groups. This is typically a toggle switch that moves between Country/Region and Groups, however, it might be a three-way-toggle that includes Country/Region, Group and Glist.

	Countries/Regions are currently the smallest geographical unit that users can represent. The ability to split countries down into smaller regions, or states, is under development. There are ~~186~~ different countries/regions that users can display.		Countries/Regions are currently the smallest geographical unit that users can represent. The ability to split countries down into smaller regions, or states, is under development. There are 188 different countries/regions that users can display.

	Groups are variably organized geographically or by memberships in international institutions/regimes. You can find out who is represented in each group and add or delete members by exploring the [[Extended_Features#Manage_Groups/Regions\|Managing Regionalization]] function.		Groups are variably organized geographically or by memberships in international institutions/regimes. You can find out who is represented in each group and add or delete members by exploring the [[Extended_Features#Manage_Groups/Regions\|Managing Regionalization]] function.
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	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Time Horizon</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Time Horizon</span> =

	'''Future Forecasts.''' IFs begins computation with data from ~~2000~~ and can dynamically calculate values for all variables annually through 2100.		'''Future Forecasts.''' IFs begins computation with data from 2020 and can dynamically calculate values for all variables annually through 2100.

	'''Historical Analysis and "Forecasts."''' IFs also includes an extensive and growing historical data base starting in 1960. The data basis allows analysis of relationships among variables across countries and across time.		'''Historical Analysis and "Forecasts."''' IFs also includes an extensive and growing historical data base starting in 1960. The data basis allows analysis of relationships among variables across countries and across time.

Ethan.Sullivan: Changed “Population” to “Demographics” and “interstate politics” to “international relations”; Added “Governance”, “infrastructure”, “health”, and “education” modules and summaries for them; Updated the summary description of each model

2024-11-27T20:04:44Z

Changed “Population” to “Demographics” and “interstate politics” to “international relations”; Added “Governance”, “infrastructure”, “health”, and “education” modules and summaries for them; Updated the summary description of each model

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:04, 27 November 2024
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	International Futures is a collection of interconnected models (sometimes referred to as modules). Below is a quick survey of the major models in IFs. For more information on each one, please click on the model headings.		International Futures is a collection of interconnected models (sometimes referred to as modules). Below is a quick survey of the major models in IFs. For more information on each one, please click on the model headings.

	The [[Population\|'''~~population''']]~~ model:		The '''[[Population\|demographics]]''' model:

	*represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+		*represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
	*calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers		*calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
	*computes average life expectancy at birth~~, literacy rate,~~ and ~~overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life~~		*computes average life expectancy at birth and represents migration
	*represents migration ~~and HIV/AIDS~~
	*includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels

	The [[Economics\|~~'''~~economic''']] model:		The '''[[Economics\|economic]]''' model:

	*represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, ~~industry~~, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)		*represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, raw materials, energy, manufactures, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
	*computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
	*is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time		*is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
	*contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)		*contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
	*~~uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns~~		*multifactor productivity from the production function along with labor and capital stock are the main drivers of the magnitude of production
	*utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade		*utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
	*~~is being imbedded during 2002 in~~ a social accounting matrix (SAM) ~~envelope~~ that ~~will tie~~ economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows		*computes and uses a social accounting matrix (SAM) that ties economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows both domestically and internationally for households, governments, and industry
			*the SAM calculates changes in income distributions based on its projection of household consumption and on the education model's projections of skill level

	The [[Agriculture\|~~'''~~agricultural''']] model:		The '''[[Agriculture\|agricultural]]''' model:

	*represents production, consumption and trade of crops and ~~meat; it also carries ocean~~ fish ~~catch and aquaculture in less detail~~		*represents production, consumption and trade of crops, meat, and fish
	*maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories		*maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories; and water use
	*represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products		*represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
	*is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes		*is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
	*overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise		*overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

	The ~~[[Energy\|~~'''energy''']] model:		The '''[[energy]]''' model:

	*portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable		*portrays production of six energy types: oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
	*represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate		*represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
	*represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels		*represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
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	*overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise		*overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

	The ~~two~~ [[~~Socio-Political~~\|~~'''socio-political'''~~]] ~~sub-models~~:		The [[Interstate Politics (IP)\|international relations]] model:

	Within countries or geographic groupings		Within countries or geographic groupings

	*represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
	*shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
	*represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
	*represents the evolution of democracy
	*represents the prospects for state instability or failure		*represents the prospects for state instability or failure

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	*allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat		*allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
	*represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries		*represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries
			The [[governance]] model:

			*is a two way interaction between governments and the socio-cultural system
			*has three dimensions of governance: capacity, security, and inclusion that closely interact bi-directionally
			*represents the evolution of democracy
			*represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
			*shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category

			The [[infrastructure]] model:

			* forecasts the demand of infrastructure and the funding available to meet the demand
			* forecasts levels of infrastructure based on this demand and funding constraint
			* measures access to key infrastructures like water, electricity, or broadband
			* maintains and calculates changes in physical stocks like percentage of roads paved, and area equipped with irrigation

	The ~~implicit~~ [[~~Environment\|'''environmental'''~~]] model:		The [[health]] model:

			* forecasts age, sex, and health indicators related to 15 causes of death modeled in IFs
			* causes of death are split into three cause groups: communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions; noncommunicable diseases; and injuries
			* is driven by education, technology, and income

			The [[education]] model:

			* projects educational participation and attainment across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels for each country in IFs
			* determines attainment and participation through the demand for education and the investment in education by governments
			* has educational demand based on income while educational investment is a result of government spending
			* models dropout, completion, and transition to the next level of schooling rates

			The implicit '''[[Environment\|environmental]]''' model:
	*is distributed throughout the overall model		*is distributed throughout the overall model
	*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions		*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions
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	*explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies		*explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
	*is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending		*is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending
			*represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Background</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Background</span> =

Ethan.Sullivan: Change "The eighth current generation" to "The current (eighth) generation"

2024-11-26T23:25:38Z

Change "The eighth current generation" to "The current (eighth) generation"

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:25, 26 November 2024
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	'''The seventh generation''' officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts this version also had continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and usability. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version and it will increasingly become central to our work in the current generation.		'''The seventh generation''' officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts this version also had continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and usability. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version and it will increasingly become central to our work in the current generation.

	'''The current eighth generation''' is primarily distinguished by a transition in the underlying coding language, shifting from Visual Basic 6 to Visual Basic .NET. This shift has facilitated the integration of both online and standalone user interfaces, streamlining the process of implementing interface modifications. Moreover, the adoption of this new underlying language and user interface has empowered developers to leverage a broader range of third-party applications and dynamic visualization tools, while aligning with Microsoft-supported languages.		'''The current (eighth) generation''' is primarily distinguished by a transition in the underlying coding language, shifting from Visual Basic 6 to Visual Basic .NET. This shift has facilitated the integration of both online and standalone user interfaces, streamlining the process of implementing interface modifications. Moreover, the adoption of this new underlying language and user interface has empowered developers to leverage a broader range of third-party applications and dynamic visualization tools, while aligning with Microsoft-supported languages.

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Geographic Representation of the World</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Geographic Representation of the World</span> =

Ethan.Sullivan: Added information beyond the fifth generation; changed wording so that the 4th and 5th generations were no longer written in the present tense; Bolded the start of each generation.

2024-11-26T23:20:18Z

Added information beyond the fifth generation; changed wording so that the 4th and 5th generations were no longer written in the present tense; Bolded the start of each generation.

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:20, 26 November 2024
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	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Background</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Background</span> =

	International Futures (IFs) has evolved since 1980 through ~~three~~ "generations," with ~~a fourth~~ generation now taking form.		International Futures (IFs) has evolved since 1980 through eight "generations," with the eighth generation now taking form.

	The first generation had deep roots in the world models of the 1970s, including those of the Club of Rome. In particular, IFs drew on the Mesarovic-Pestel or World Integrated Model (Mesarovic and Pestel 1974). The author of IFs had contributed to that project, including the construction of the energy submodel. IFs consciously also drew on the Leontief World Model (Leontief et al. 1977), the Bariloche Foundation’s world model (Herrera et al. 1976), and Systems Analysis Research Unit Model (SARU 1977), following comparative analysis of those models by Hughes (1980). That generation was written in FORTRAN and available for use on main-frame computers through CONDUIT, an educational software distribution center at the University of Iowa. Although the primary use of that and subsequent generations was by students, IFs has always had some policy analysis capability that has appealed to specialists. For example, the U.S. Foreign Service Institute used the first generation of IFs in a mid-career training program.		'''The first generation''' had deep roots in the world models of the 1970s, including those of the Club of Rome. In particular, IFs drew on the Mesarovic-Pestel or World Integrated Model (Mesarovic and Pestel 1974). The author of IFs had contributed to that project, including the construction of the energy submodel. IFs consciously also drew on the Leontief World Model (Leontief et al. 1977), the Bariloche Foundation’s world model (Herrera et al. 1976), and Systems Analysis Research Unit Model (SARU 1977), following comparative analysis of those models by Hughes (1980). That generation was written in FORTRAN and available for use on main-frame computers through CONDUIT, an educational software distribution center at the University of Iowa. Although the primary use of that and subsequent generations was by students, IFs has always had some policy analysis capability that has appealed to specialists. For example, the U.S. Foreign Service Institute used the first generation of IFs in a mid-career training program.

	The second generation of International Futures moved to early microcomputers in 1985, using the DOS platform. It was a very simplified version of the original IFs without regional or country differentiation.		'''The second generation''' of International Futures moved to early microcomputers in 1985, using the DOS platform. It was a very simplified version of the original IFs without regional or country differentiation.

	The third generation, first available in 1993, became a full-scale microcomputer model. The third generation improved earlier representations of demographic, energy, and food systems, but added new environmental and socio-political content. It built upon the collaboration of the author with the GLOBUS project, and it adopted the economic submodel of GLOBUS (developed by the author). GLOBUS had been created with the inspiration of Karl Deutsch and under the leadership of Stuart Bremer (1987) at the Wissenschaftszentrum in Berlin.		'''The third generation''', first available in 1993, became a full-scale microcomputer model. The third generation improved earlier representations of demographic, energy, and food systems, but added new environmental and socio-political content. It built upon the collaboration of the author with the GLOBUS project, and it adopted the economic submodel of GLOBUS (developed by the author). GLOBUS had been created with the inspiration of Karl Deutsch and under the leadership of Stuart Bremer (1987) at the Wissenschaftszentrum in Berlin.

	The third generation ~~has~~ produced three editions/major releases of IFs, each accompanied by a book also called International Futures (Hughes 1993, 1996, 1999). The second edition moved to a Visual Basic platform that allowed a much improved menu-driven interface, running under Windows. The third edition incorporated an early global mapping capability and an initial ability to do cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis.		The third generation produced three editions/major releases of IFs, each accompanied by a book also called International Futures (Hughes 1993, 1996, 1999). The second edition moved to a Visual Basic platform that allowed a much improved menu-driven interface, running under Windows. The third edition incorporated an early global mapping capability and an initial ability to do cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis.

	The fourth generation ~~has been taking~~ shape since early 2000. It ~~has been~~ heavily influenced by the usage of the model ~~in an increasingly policy-analysis mode~~ by several important organizations. First, General Motors commissioned a specialized version of IFs named CoVaTrA (Consumer Values Trends Analysis) with a need for updated and extended demographic modeling and representation of value change. An alliance was established with the World Values Survey, directed by Ronald Inglehart, to create that version. Second, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency commissioned a specialized version named IFs for SAG. The work involved in preparing that greatly extended and enhanced the socio-political representations of the model, both domestic and international. Third, the European Commission sponsored a project named TERRA which has led to a specialized version named IFs for TERRA. IFs for TERRA work led to enhancements across the model, including improved representation of economic sectors, updated IO matrices and a basic Social Accounting Matrix, GINI and Lorenz curves, and preparing for extended environmental impact representation (drawing upon the Advanced Sustainability Analysis framework of the Finland Futures Research Center).		'''The fourth generation''' took shape since early 2000. It was heavily influenced by the usage of the model by several important organizations for policy-analysis. First, General Motors commissioned a specialized version of IFs named CoVaTrA (Consumer Values Trends Analysis) with a need for updated and extended demographic modeling and representation of value change. An alliance was established with the World Values Survey, directed by Ronald Inglehart, to create that version. Second, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency commissioned a specialized version named IFs for SAG. The work involved in preparing that greatly extended and enhanced the socio-political representations of the model, both domestic and international. Third, the European Commission sponsored a project named TERRA which has led to a specialized version named IFs for TERRA. IFs for TERRA work led to enhancements across the model, including improved representation of economic sectors, updated IO matrices and a basic Social Accounting Matrix, GINI and Lorenz curves, and preparing for extended environmental impact representation (drawing upon the Advanced Sustainability Analysis framework of the Finland Futures Research Center).

	~~Throughout this emergence of a~~ fourth generation IFs ~~(incorporating all of the above elements for additional users) there has been~~ also a heavy emphasis on ~~enhanced~~ usability. Ideas from Robert Pestel in the TERRA project led to the creation of a new tree-structure for scenario creation and management. Ideas from Ronald Inglehart led to the development of the Guided Use structure and a somewhat more game-like character within that structure. Inglehart also ~~help~~ arrange funding to support the programming of Guided Use through the European Union Center of the University of Michigan.		The fourth generation of IFs also had a heavy emphasis on enhancing usability. Ideas from Robert Pestel in the TERRA project led to the creation of a new tree-structure for scenario creation and management. Ideas from Ronald Inglehart led to the development of the Guided Use structure and a somewhat more game-like character within that structure. Inglehart also helped to arrange funding to support the programming of Guided Use through the European Union Center of the University of Michigan.

	The fifth ~~version~~ of IFs ~~is currently in use and represents broad strides to~~ improving the model ~~and~~ its usability. ~~It is~~ the ~~first~~ version of ~~this software~~ to ~~be placed online due~~ to the ~~help~~ of ~~the National Intelligence Council ([http://www~~.~~ifs~~.~~du.edu http://www~~.~~ifs.du.edu]). Also, usability has been increased as~~ Packaged Displays and Flex Packaged Displays were introduced that allowed for the creation of very specific lists of countries/regions, groups or Glists. ~~A new education~~ model ~~has also been incorporated into~~ the ~~broader IFs model~~. New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.		'''The fifth generation''' of IFs (from 2004-2009) focused on improving the model, its usability, and transparency. Model improvements included clearer and more extensive representations of the agent classes and their points of leverage, stemming from the desire to make the modeling system a more valuable scenario-testing and policy analysis tool. The further elaboration of the social accounting matrix, structure, the development of education and health sub-models, and the substantial redesign of an economic production function with endogenous multifactor productivity were all outcomes of this version.

			Efforts to enhance the models usability included the addition of a number of specialized displays, such as those for seeing the social accounting matrices, to display progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, to explore poverty at different income levels, and to represent the educational attainment of population cohorts. Mapping and data analysis tools were also strengthened. The ability to drill down into select countries to explore futures at the state or province-level was also added. Packaged Displays and Flex Packaged Displays were introduced that allowed for the creation of very specific lists of countries/regions, groups or Glists. Greater transparency came from adding the ability for users to access the flow charts, equations, and code underlying the model.

			The fifth version was the first version of this software to be placed online due to the help of the National Intelligence Council (http://www.ifs.du.edu). New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.

			'''The sixth generation''' of IFs revolved around the development of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series. The [https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/content/patterns-potential-human-progress PPHP] volumes, with their focus on major human development systems, spurred the further enhancement of the model’s major subsystems, especially population, economic (especially poverty representation), education, health, infrastructure, and governance. The supporting documentation required for the PPHP series also gave rise to efforts to create the most detailed documentation of the model to date.

			'''The seventh generation''' officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts this version also had continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and usability. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version and it will increasingly become central to our work in the current generation.

			'''The current eighth generation''' is primarily distinguished by a transition in the underlying coding language, shifting from Visual Basic 6 to Visual Basic .NET. This shift has facilitated the integration of both online and standalone user interfaces, streamlining the process of implementing interface modifications. Moreover, the adoption of this new underlying language and user interface has empowered developers to leverage a broader range of third-party applications and dynamic visualization tools, while aligning with Microsoft-supported languages.

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Geographic Representation of the World</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Geographic Representation of the World</span> =

Ethan.Sullivan: Changed Purpose Statement to reflect the purpose statement on the website; Bolded “IFs can help you:"; Added “evaluate the impacts of policies” to the “IFs can help you:” sub section; In the “Which issues can you investigate..." subsection I corrected dead links to live links, I removed outdated “Socio-Political Change” “Geopolitics” and “Food and Agriculture” bullet points, and added “Infrastructure”, “International Relations” “Health”, “Human Development”, “Education" bullet points

2024-11-26T22:18:13Z

Changed Purpose Statement to reflect the purpose statement on the website; Bolded “IFs can help you:"; Added “evaluate the impacts of policies” to the “IFs can help you:” sub section; In the “Which issues can you investigate..." subsection I corrected dead links to live links, I removed outdated “Socio-Political Change” “Geopolitics” and “Food and Agriculture” bullet points, and added “Infrastructure”, “International Relations” “Health”, “Human Development”, “Education" bullet points

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:18, 26 November 2024
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	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Purposes</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Purposes</span> =

	'''International Futures (IFs) ~~is a tool for thinking~~ about ~~long~~-~~term global~~ trends and ~~planning more strategically for~~ the~~ future~~.~~ ~~'''		'''The International Futures (IFs) model helps us explore, understand, and shape global questions about future human well-being. The model empowers users to examine past trends to understand the current trajectory we are on, how human, social, and environmental systems interact over time, and how we think about and address the “grand challenges” awaiting the global community.'''

	IFs can help you:		'''IFs can help you:'''

	*Understand the state of major global systems		*Understand the state of major global systems
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	*Develop alternative scenarios (if-then statements) about the future		*Develop alternative scenarios (if-then statements) about the future
	*Investigate how different groups (households, firms or governments) can shape the future		*Investigate how different groups (households, firms or governments) can shape the future
			*Evaluate the potential impacts of policies

	'''The IFs platform relies on core, underlying assumptions, including the following.'''		'''The IFs platform relies on core, underlying assumptions, including the following.'''
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	'''Which issues can you investigate with IFs? Some examples include:'''		'''Which issues can you investigate with IFs? Some examples include:'''

	*[[~~Environment\|~~Environment]]: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, world forest area, ~~fossil fuel usage~~		*[[Environment]]: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, world forest area, temperature change
	*[[~~Socio-Political\|Socio-Political Change~~]]: Life expectancy, literacy rate, ~~democracy~~ level, status of women, ~~value change~~		*[[Infrastructure]]: Electricity access, number of fixed broadband subscriptions
			*[[Health]]: Life expectancy, HIV prevalence, death rates by category of cause
			*[[Education]]: Average years of education, literacy rate
			*[[Governance]]: Democracy level, expenditure and spending levels, debt level
			*Human Development: Poverty level, status of women
			*[[Interstate Politics (IP)\|International Relations]]: Country and regional power levels, interstate conflict likelihood
	*[[Population\|Demographics]]: Population levels and growth, fertility, mortality, migration		*[[Population\|Demographics]]: Population levels and growth, fertility, mortality, migration
	*[[~~Agriculture\|Food and~~ Agriculture]]: Land use and production levels, calorie availability, malnutrition rates		*[[Agriculture]]: Land use and production levels, calorie availability, malnutrition rates
	*[[~~Energy\|~~Energy]]: Resource and production levels, demand patterns, renewable energy share		*[[Energy]]: Resource and production levels, demand patterns, fossil fuel usage, renewable energy share
	*[[~~Economics\|~~Economics]]: Sectoral production, consumption, ~~and~~ trade patterns and structural change		*[[Economics]]: Sectoral production, consumption, trade patterns and structural change
	*[[Interstate_Politics_(IP)\|Geopolitics]]: Country and regional power levels

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Issues and Modules: Visual Representation</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Issues and Modules: Visual Representation</span> =

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:00, 10 January 2025
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	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Purposes</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">Purposes</span> =

	'''The International Futures (IFs) model helps us explore, understand, and shape global questions about future human well-being. The model empowers users to examine past trends to understand the current trajectory we are on, how human, social, and environmental systems interact over time, and how we think about and address the ~~“grand challenges”~~ awaiting the global community.'''		'''The International Futures (IFs) model helps us explore, understand, and shape global questions about future human well-being. The model empowers users to examine past trends to understand the current trajectory we are on, how human, social, and environmental systems interact over time, and how we think about and address the complex challenges awaiting the global community.'''

	'''IFs can help you:'''		'''IFs can help you:'''
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	International Futures is a collection of interconnected models (sometimes referred to as modules). Below is a quick survey of the major models in IFs. For more information on each one, please click on the model headings.		International Futures is a collection of interconnected models (sometimes referred to as modules). Below is a quick survey of the major models in IFs. For more information on each one, please click on the model headings.

	The ~~'''~~[[Population\|demographics]]~~'''~~ model:		The [[Population\|demographics]] model:

	*represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+		*represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
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	*computes average life expectancy at birth and represents migration		*computes average life expectancy at birth and represents migration

	The ~~'''~~[[Economics\|economic]]~~'''~~ model:		The [[Economics\|economic]] model:

	*represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, raw materials, energy, manufactures, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)		*represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, raw materials, energy, manufactures, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
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	*the SAM calculates changes in income distributions based on its projection of household consumption and on the education model's projections of skill level		*the SAM calculates changes in income distributions based on its projection of household consumption and on the education model's projections of skill level

	The ~~'''~~[[Agriculture\|agricultural]]~~'''~~ model:		The [[Agriculture\|agricultural]] model:

	*represents production, consumption and trade of crops, meat, and fish		*represents production, consumption and trade of crops, meat, and fish
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	*overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise		*overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

	The ~~'''~~[[energy]]~~'''~~ model:		The [[energy]] model:

	*portrays production of six energy types: oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable		*portrays production of six energy types: oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
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	* models the rates of dropout, completion, and transition to the next level of schooling		* models the rates of dropout, completion, and transition to the next level of schooling

	The ~~'''~~[[Environment\|environmental]]~~'''~~ model:		The [[Environment\|environmental]] model:
	*is distributed throughout the overall model		*is distributed throughout the overall model
	*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions		*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions

	The implicit ~~'''~~technology~~'''~~ model:		The implicit technology model:

	*is distributed throughout the overall model		*is distributed throughout the overall model
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	*explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies		*explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
	*is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending		*is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending
	*represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/~~postmaterialism~~ of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)		*represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/post-materialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Background</span> =		= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Background</span> =
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	The fifth version was the first version of this software to be placed online due to the help of the National Intelligence Council (http://www.ifs.du.edu). New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.		The fifth version was the first version of this software to be placed online due to the help of the National Intelligence Council (http://www.ifs.du.edu). New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.

	'''The sixth generation''' of IFs began in 2010 and revolved around the development of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series. The [https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/content/patterns-potential-human-progress PPHP] volumes, with their focus on major human development systems, spurred the further enhancement of the model’s major subsystems, especially population, economic (especially poverty representation), education, health, infrastructure, and governance. The supporting documentation required for the PPHP series also gave rise to efforts to create the most detailed documentation of the model to date.		'''The sixth generation''' of IFs began in 2010 and revolved around the development of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series. The [https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/content/patterns-potential-human-progress PPHP] volumes, with their focus on major human development systems, spurred the further enhancement of the model’s major subsystems, especially population, economic (especially poverty representation), education, health, infrastructure, and governance. The supporting documentation required for the PPHP series also gave rise to efforts to create the most detailed documentation of the model to date. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version.

	'''The seventh generation''' officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts this version also had continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and usability~~. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version and it will increasingly become central to our work in the current generation~~.		'''The seventh generation''' officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts this version also had continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and usability.

	'''The current (eighth) generation''' is primarily distinguished by a transition in the underlying coding language, shifting from Visual Basic 6 to Visual Basic .NET. This shift has facilitated the integration of both online and standalone user interfaces, streamlining the process of implementing interface modifications. Moreover, the adoption of this new underlying language and user interface has empowered developers to leverage a broader range of third-party applications and dynamic visualization tools, while aligning with Microsoft-supported languages.		'''The current (eighth) generation''' is primarily distinguished by a transition in the underlying coding language, shifting from Visual Basic 6 to Visual Basic .NET. This shift has facilitated the integration of both online and standalone user interfaces, streamlining the process of implementing interface modifications. Moreover, the adoption of this new underlying language and user interface has empowered developers to leverage a broader range of third-party applications and dynamic visualization tools, while aligning with Microsoft-supported languages.
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	188 countries underpin the functioning of IFs and these countries can be displayed separately or as parts of larger groups that users can determine.		188 countries underpin the functioning of IFs and these countries can be displayed separately or as parts of larger groups that users can determine.

	''Below is a visual representation of how different entities are organized into Countries/Regions, Groups or ~~Glists~~:''		''Below is a visual representation of how different entities are organized into Countries/Regions, Groups or Geography \-lists:''

	[[File:Geo 186.png\|frame\|right\|Visual representation of IF's definition of regions/countries/groups/glists]]		[[File:Geo 186.png\|frame\|right\|Visual representation of IF's definition of regions/countries/groups/glists]]
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	''*Note: In older versions of IFs, Regions were used as intermediaries between Countries and Groups. In the future, they, or some similarly named unit, will be a sub-unit of Countries. Regions, acting as a sub-unit of Countries, are currently not a feature of IFs. See the image located at the bottom of this Help topic.''		''*Note: In older versions of IFs, Regions were used as intermediaries between Countries and Groups. In the future, they, or some similarly named unit, will be a sub-unit of Countries. Regions, acting as a sub-unit of Countries, are currently not a feature of IFs. See the image located at the bottom of this Help topic.''

	When using IFs, there are many occasions where the user ~~is asked~~ whether or not they would like to display their results as a product of single countries, or larger groups. This is typically a toggle switch that moves between Country/Region and Groups, however, it might be a three-way-toggle that includes Country/Region, Group and ~~Glist~~.		When using IFs, there are many occasions where the user must decide whether or not they would like to display their results as a product of single countries, or larger groups. This is typically a toggle switch that moves between Country/Region and Groups, however, it might be a three-way-toggle that includes Country/Region, Group and Geography-List.

	Countries/Regions are currently the smallest geographical unit that users can represent. The ability to split countries down into smaller regions, or states, is under development. There are 188 different countries/regions that users can display.		Countries/Regions are currently the smallest geographical unit that users can represent. The ability to split countries down into smaller regions, or states, is under development. There are 188 different countries/regions that users can display.

	Groups are variably organized geographically or by memberships in international institutions/regimes~~. You can find out who is represented in each group and add or delete members by exploring the [[Extended_Features#Manage_Groups/Regions\|Managing Regionalization]] function~~.		Groups are variably organized geographically, by income, or by memberships in international institutions/regimes.

	~~Glists~~ merge both Groups and Countries/Regions. These lists are mostly geographically bound. In the future, the ~~Glist~~ distinction will become more important as some users may want to place, for example, both the Indian state of Kerala in a ~~Glist~~ with Sri Lanka and Nepal.		Geography-list merge both Groups and Countries/Regions. These lists are mostly geographically bound. In the future, the Geography-list distinction will become more important as some users may want to place, for example, both the Indian state of Kerala in a Geography-list with Sri Lanka and Nepal.

	Users may also want to [[~~Extended_Features~~#~~Change_Grouping~~/Regionalization\|create]] their own groups or [[~~Extended_Features#Identify_Groups_or_Country/Region_Members\|explore~~]] ~~what countries are members of what groups~~.		Users may also want to explore what countries are members of what groups which can be done through the Identify Groups or Country/Region Members option under [[Extended Features]] tab in the Main Menu. Users that want to [[Extended Features#Change%20Grouping/Regionalization\|create]] their own groups can do so through the Edit Groups or Country/Region Members option also under the [[Extended Features]] tab.

	= <span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Time Horizon</span> =		<span style="font-size:xx-large;">IFs Time Horizon</span>

	'''Future Forecasts.''' IFs begins computation with data from 2020 and can dynamically calculate values for all variables annually through 2100.		'''Future Forecasts.''' IFs begins computation with data from 2020 and can dynamically calculate values for all variables annually through 2100.

	'''Historical Analysis and "Forecasts."''' IFs also includes an extensive and growing historical data base starting in 1960. The data basis allows analysis of relationships among variables across countries and across time.		'''Historical Analysis and "Forecasts."''' IFs also includes an extensive and growing historical data base starting in 1960. The data basis allows analysis of relationships among variables across countries and across time.