Population Data - Revision history

Fouad.Alkhouri at 22:03, 16 February 2023

2023-02-16T22:03:16Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:03, 16 February 2023
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	= Population =		= Population =

	The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll~~\|ApplyMultAll]]~~, rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: [http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population]		The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using ApplyMultAll, rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: [http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population]

	[[File:PopulationWB v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]		[[File:PopulationWB v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]
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	= '''TFRMedUNPD''' =		= '''TFRMedUNPD''' =

	The data that is used for this series is from a report that was published by the National Bureau of Statistics in China in 2007 that was aptly named ~~[http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/popfertilityestimateschina.pdf~~ Fertility Estimates for Provinces of China 1975-2000]. The series is dated because the most recent data point is in 2000, but it is the only data that has been found. Total fertility rates for China's provinces has remained a difficult to find series. It is not published by provinces on any of the National Data websites, nor has it been found in any Human Development Reports on China.		The data that is used for this series is from a report that was published by the National Bureau of Statistics in China in 2007 that was aptly named Fertility Estimates for Provinces of China 1975-2000. The series is dated because the most recent data point is in 2000, but it is the only data that has been found. Total fertility rates for China's provinces has remained a difficult to find series. It is not published by provinces on any of the National Data websites, nor has it been found in any Human Development Reports on China.

	[[File:TotalFertilityRate v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]		[[File:TotalFertilityRate v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]
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	= '''PopulationUrban''' =		= '''PopulationUrban''' =

	Urban population data for the China provincial model came from the ~~[[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|~~China Statistical Yearbooks]] from 2006-2016. The data is published in tens of thousands rather than the millions that are used in the model. Thus [[ApplyMultAll~~\|ApplyMultAll]]~~ is used on this series to normalize the data into the proper unit of millions.		Urban population data for the China provincial model came from the China Statistical Yearbooks from 2006-2016. The data is published in tens of thousands rather than the millions that are used in the model. Thus ApplyMultAll is used on this series to normalize the data into the proper unit of millions.

	[[File:PopUrban 728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]		[[File:PopUrban 728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]
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	= '''Households''' =		= '''Households''' =

	China's provincial household data came from the ~~[[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|~~China Statistical Yearbooks]] 2012-2015, which produced a series that runs from 2011-2014. There is household data published in the 2016 yearbook, but this data was not included because it is significantly different from the preceding years by twice the households in some provinces. There was not a reason for this inconsistency that was found in the China Statistical Yearbooks' metadata.		China's provincial household data came from the China Statistical Yearbooks 2012-2015, which produced a series that runs from 2011-2014. There is household data published in the 2016 yearbook, but this data was not included because it is significantly different from the preceding years by twice the households in some provinces. There was not a reason for this inconsistency that was found in the China Statistical Yearbooks' metadata.

	[[File:Householdsize v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]		[[File:Householdsize v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]
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	= '''PopulationYouthDepend%''' =		= '''PopulationYouthDepend%''' =

	PopulationYouthDepend% is the percentage of the population that is under the age of 15. This is series was found in the ~~[[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|~~China Statistical Yearbooks]] 2012-2016, which means that the series runs from 2011-2015.		PopulationYouthDepend% is the percentage of the population that is under the age of 15. This is series was found in the China Statistical Yearbooks 2012-2016, which means that the series runs from 2011-2015.

AltheaDitter at 21:52, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:52:17Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:52, 25 May 2017
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	= Population =		= Population =

	~~== World Bank ==~~

	The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]], rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: [http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population]		The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]], rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: [http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population]

AltheaDitter at 21:51, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:51:30Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:51, 25 May 2017
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	There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]].		There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]].

	~~=== ===~~

	= '''Age-Sex Cohorts''' =		= '''Age-Sex Cohorts''' =

AltheaDitter at 21:51, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:51:12Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:51, 25 May 2017
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	There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]].		There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]].

	~~=== ===~~

	=== ===		=== ===

AltheaDitter at 21:51, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:51:01Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:51, 25 May 2017
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	The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]], rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: [http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population]		The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]], rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: [http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population]

	[[File:PopulationWB v728.jpg]]		[[File:PopulationWB v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]

	Population in peaks in all provinces some time between 2010 and 2030. The largest province is Guangdong starting in the 2000s through the end of the time horizon. Guangdong is followed by Shandong province, which was the largest prior to 2005.		Population in peaks in all provinces some time between 2010 and 2030. The largest province is Guangdong starting in the 2000s through the end of the time horizon. Guangdong is followed by Shandong province, which was the largest prior to 2005.

AltheaDitter at 21:50, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:50:42Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:50, 25 May 2017
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	== World Bank ==		== World Bank ==

	The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]], rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population		The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]], rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: [http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population]

			[[File:PopulationWB v728.jpg]]

			Population in peaks in all provinces some time between 2010 and 2030. The largest province is Guangdong starting in the 2000s through the end of the time horizon. Guangdong is followed by Shandong province, which was the largest prior to 2005.

	There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]].		There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]].

AltheaDitter at 21:46, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:46:05Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:46, 25 May 2017
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	== World Bank ==		== World Bank ==

	The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]]. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts.		The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]], rather than converted into millions. This choice was to help simplify data updates and decrease the likelihood of human errors in the data. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts. The World Bank data code is ''SP.POP.TOTL ''and can be found in the subnational population project database: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=subnational-population

			There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]].

	=== ===		=== ===

	There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]]. The population data is published in tens of thousands, rather than the millions that are used in the full 186 version of IFs. Rather than converting the population data into millions, the population series was imported as it was published in tens of thousands and [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]] is selected in the data dictionary. This normalizes the historical data to the population of China in the full 186 version of IFs. This choice to normalize rather than change units is meant to decrease the likelihood of human error, and simplify future data updates.

	=== ===		=== ===

AltheaDitter at 21:41, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:41:28Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:41, 25 May 2017
Line 5:		Line 5:
	The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]]. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts.		The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]]. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts.

	=== ~~China Statistical Yearbook~~ ===		=== ===

	The provincial population series for China runs from 1995 through 2015. The original data lacked observations for Chongqing in 1995 and 1996 because Chongqing did not gain its status as a municipality until 1997. Chongqing was part of Sichuan province prior to 1997 and thus, Sichuan province's data included Chongqing in 1995 and 1996 and there was a substantial drop in Sichuan province in 1997. To remedy this issue, the ratio of population in Chongqing relative to the sum of Sichuan province and Chongqing in 1997 was used to estimate the population in Chongqing in 1995 and 1996. This population estimate for Chongqing was subtracted from Sichuan's population in 1995 and 1996. This provides a smoother and more accurate historical series. and data for Chongqing and Sichuan province were adjusted/estimated for 1995 and 1996.

	Despite this estimation, there are still some unexplained spikes and drops in the population data around 2000. Guangdong has the most noticeable shift, where in 1999 population is 73.9 million and in 2000 population jumps up to 86.9. These shifts in the data are indeed in the data and not human errors (at least not on our end). The data source was contact regarding this and other potential data issues that were found while pulling data, they have yet to respond.

	~~[[File:ChinaPopulation v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]~~

	The provincial population series for China's subregional model came from the [[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|China Statistical Yearbooks]] from 1996-2016. These yearbooks are available online on the [[Media:National_Bureau_of_Statistics_of_China_website\|National Bureau of Statistics of China website]]. There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]]. The population data is published in tens of thousands, rather than the millions that are used in the full 186 version of IFs. Rather than converting the population data into millions, the population series was imported as it was published in tens of thousands and [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]] is selected in the data dictionary. This normalizes the historical data to the population of China in the full 186 version of IFs. This choice to normalize rather than change units is meant to decrease the likelihood of human error, and simplify future data updates.		There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]]. The population data is published in tens of thousands, rather than the millions that are used in the full 186 version of IFs. Rather than converting the population data into millions, the population series was imported as it was published in tens of thousands and [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]] is selected in the data dictionary. This normalizes the historical data to the population of China in the full 186 version of IFs. This choice to normalize rather than change units is meant to decrease the likelihood of human error, and simplify future data updates.

	=== ===		=== ===
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	This series should be treated as a placeholder, not as a legitimate series. Further research is required to reproduce the data from the paper using the paper's methodology. The paper's appendices need to be used to locate the original data sources for all the data and for understanding the methods used for estimation. This series should be replicated and hypothetically there may be an update available, which would give the model more recent data.		This series should be treated as a placeholder, not as a legitimate series. Further research is required to reproduce the data from the paper using the paper's methodology. The paper's appendices need to be used to locate the original data sources for all the data and for understanding the methods used for estimation. This series should be replicated and hypothetically there may be an update available, which would give the model more recent data.

	[[File:NetMigrationRate v728.jpg]]		[[File:NetMigrationRate v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]

	It is apparent that the way in which the model estimates migration by using exogenous historical and forecast data from the UNPD, that having historical data is insufficient for the model to produce good forecasts. Rather the model will force all provinces to a rate of zero. Despite this model behavior, the sum of the province's population forecasts is quite close to the full 186-model forecasts.		It is apparent that the way in which the model estimates migration by using exogenous historical and forecast data from the UNPD, that having historical data is insufficient for the model to produce good forecasts. Rather the model will force all provinces to a rate of zero. Despite this model behavior, the sum of the province's population forecasts is quite close to the full 186-model forecasts.
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	China's provincial household data came from the [[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|China Statistical Yearbooks]] 2012-2015, which produced a series that runs from 2011-2014. There is household data published in the 2016 yearbook, but this data was not included because it is significantly different from the preceding years by twice the households in some provinces. There was not a reason for this inconsistency that was found in the China Statistical Yearbooks' metadata.		China's provincial household data came from the [[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|China Statistical Yearbooks]] 2012-2015, which produced a series that runs from 2011-2014. There is household data published in the 2016 yearbook, but this data was not included because it is significantly different from the preceding years by twice the households in some provinces. There was not a reason for this inconsistency that was found in the China Statistical Yearbooks' metadata.

	[[File:Householdsize v728.jpg]]		[[File:Householdsize v728.jpg\|RTENOTITLE]]

	There is also data available that was created by the Chinese census that was received as a part of the China Data Center database. This data was chosen to not be included in the model because the most recent data was in 2010, which is more dated than the China Statistical Yearbooks' data. This data could not be blended with the China Statistical Yearbook data because there is a significant (approximately 3 million households) jump between 2010 (the end of the census data) and 2011 (the beginning of the China Statistical Yearbook data).		There is also data available that was created by the Chinese census that was received as a part of the China Data Center database. This data was chosen to not be included in the model because the most recent data was in 2010, which is more dated than the China Statistical Yearbooks' data. This data could not be blended with the China Statistical Yearbook data because there is a significant (approximately 3 million households) jump between 2010 (the end of the census data) and 2011 (the beginning of the China Statistical Yearbook data).

AltheaDitter at 21:37, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:37:21Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:37, 25 May 2017
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	The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]]. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts.		The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]]. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts.

	~~== Other Population Series ==~~

	=== China Statistical Yearbook ===		=== China Statistical Yearbook ===
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	The provincial population series for China's subregional model came from the [[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|China Statistical Yearbooks]] from 1996-2016. These yearbooks are available online on the [[Media:National_Bureau_of_Statistics_of_China_website\|National Bureau of Statistics of China website]]. There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]]. The population data is published in tens of thousands, rather than the millions that are used in the full 186 version of IFs. Rather than converting the population data into millions, the population series was imported as it was published in tens of thousands and [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]] is selected in the data dictionary. This normalizes the historical data to the population of China in the full 186 version of IFs. This choice to normalize rather than change units is meant to decrease the likelihood of human error, and simplify future data updates.		The provincial population series for China's subregional model came from the [[China_Statistical_Yearbooks\|China Statistical Yearbooks]] from 1996-2016. These yearbooks are available online on the [[Media:National_Bureau_of_Statistics_of_China_website\|National Bureau of Statistics of China website]]. There are other sources available for provincial population data in China, which can be read about at [[Alternative_Data_Sources\|Alternative Population Data Sources]]. The population data is published in tens of thousands, rather than the millions that are used in the full 186 version of IFs. Rather than converting the population data into millions, the population series was imported as it was published in tens of thousands and [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]] is selected in the data dictionary. This normalizes the historical data to the population of China in the full 186 version of IFs. This choice to normalize rather than change units is meant to decrease the likelihood of human error, and simplify future data updates.

			=== ===

	= '''Age-Sex Cohorts''' =		= '''Age-Sex Cohorts''' =

AltheaDitter at 21:36, 25 May 2017

2017-05-25T21:36:21Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:36, 25 May 2017
Line 1:		Line 1:
	= ~~'''~~Population~~'''~~ =		= Population =

			== World Bank ==

			The World Bank has a sub-regional population data for China in total population running from 2006 through 2015. This series is normalized into millions using [[ApplyMultAll\|ApplyMultAll]]. The model estimates the data back to 1960 to give a full time series. This series is the current population data source because the IFs model is calibrated towards using World Bank data and its population estimates are anticipated to produce better forecasts.

			== Other Population Series ==

			=== China Statistical Yearbook ===

	The provincial population series for China runs from 1995 through 2015. The original data lacked observations for Chongqing in 1995 and 1996 because Chongqing did not gain its status as a municipality until 1997. Chongqing was part of Sichuan province prior to 1997 and thus, Sichuan province's data included Chongqing in 1995 and 1996 and there was a substantial drop in Sichuan province in 1997. To remedy this issue, the ratio of population in Chongqing relative to the sum of Sichuan province and Chongqing in 1997 was used to estimate the population in Chongqing in 1995 and 1996. This population estimate for Chongqing was subtracted from Sichuan's population in 1995 and 1996. This provides a smoother and more accurate historical series. and data for Chongqing and Sichuan province were adjusted/estimated for 1995 and 1996.		The provincial population series for China runs from 1995 through 2015. The original data lacked observations for Chongqing in 1995 and 1996 because Chongqing did not gain its status as a municipality until 1997. Chongqing was part of Sichuan province prior to 1997 and thus, Sichuan province's data included Chongqing in 1995 and 1996 and there was a substantial drop in Sichuan province in 1997. To remedy this issue, the ratio of population in Chongqing relative to the sum of Sichuan province and Chongqing in 1997 was used to estimate the population in Chongqing in 1995 and 1996. This population estimate for Chongqing was subtracted from Sichuan's population in 1995 and 1996. This provides a smoother and more accurate historical series. and data for Chongqing and Sichuan province were adjusted/estimated for 1995 and 1996.