Spectrum - Revision history

KanishkaNarayan at 22:16, 27 December 2016

2016-12-27T22:16:54Z

KanishkaNarayan at 22:08, 27 December 2016

2016-12-27T22:08:08Z

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-The Spectrum model is a model from UNAIDS that forecasts....
+UNAIDS forecasts the incidence and prevalence of HIV AIDS to guide health policy decisions. UNAIDS has developed the Sectrum tool in collaboration with the Future's institute in order to record and present these forecasts. In the spectrum model, UNAIDS presents global, regional and country specific estimates to track the HIV epidemic. Some of the datasets that are avilable in the spectrum database are number of people who are currently living with HIV, people who have been newly infected with HIV , people who have died of AIDS in a particular year etc. The latest available model of spectrum is version 5.46 and can be accessed here- http://www.avenirhealth.org/software-spectrum.php.
-= Series pulled for IFs =
+<u>'''Assumptions used in the spectrum model in development of AIDS forecasts'''</u>
-We pull output from this model to create SeriesHIVPeaks, which contains data for both the year at which the prevalence of HIV will peak in a country, and the prevalence in that year.
+'''<u></u>'''<u></u>Two types of epidemics are considered when developing AIDS forecasts, "general epidemics" where HIV is firmly established in the general population of a region or nation and "concentrated epidemics" where the prevalence of HIV is concentrated in a particular sub-group of the population. Concentrated epidemics are generally considered to be low intensity epidemics.&nbsp;
 = Instructions on pulling data from Spectrum and creating HIVPeaks data&nbsp; =

Wikiadmin at 22:50, 8 December 2016

2016-12-08T22:50:53Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:50, 8 December 2016
Line 1:		Line 1:
	The Spectrum model...		The Spectrum model is a model from UNAIDS that forecasts....

			= Series pulled for IFs =

			We pull output from this model to create SeriesHIVPeaks, which contains data for both the year at which the prevalence of HIV will peak in a country, and the prevalence in that year.

			= Instructions on pulling data from Spectrum and creating HIVPeaks data  =

Wikiadmin: Created page with "The Spectrum model..."

2016-12-08T22:48:44Z

Created page with "The Spectrum model..."

New page

The Spectrum model...

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:16, 27 December 2016
Line 1:		Line 1:
	UNAIDS forecasts the incidence and prevalence of HIV AIDS to guide health policy decisions. UNAIDS has developed the Sectrum tool in collaboration with the Future's institute in order to record and present these forecasts. In the spectrum model, UNAIDS presents global, regional and country specific estimates to track the HIV epidemic. Some of the datasets that are avilable in the spectrum database are number of people who are currently living with HIV, people who have been newly infected with HIV , people who have died of AIDS in a particular year etc. The latest available model of spectrum is version 5.46 and can be accessed here- http://www.avenirhealth.org/software-spectrum.php.		UNAIDS forecasts the incidence and prevalence of HIV AIDS to guide health policy decisions. UNAIDS has developed the Sectrum tool in collaboration with the Future's institute in order to record and present these forecasts. In the spectrum model, UNAIDS presents global, regional and country specific estimates to track the HIV epidemic. Some of the datasets that are avilable in the spectrum database are number of people who are currently living with HIV, people who have been newly infected with HIV , people who have died of AIDS in a particular year etc. The latest available model of spectrum is version 5.46 and can be accessed here- [http://www.avenirhealth.org/software-spectrum.php http://www.avenirhealth.org/software-spectrum.php].

	<u>'''Assumptions used in the spectrum model in development of AIDS forecasts'''</u>		<u>'''Assumptions used in the spectrum model in development of AIDS forecasts'''</u>

	~~'''<u></u>'''<u></u>~~Two types of epidemics are considered when developing AIDS forecasts, "general epidemics" where HIV is firmly established in the general population of a region or nation and "concentrated epidemics" where the prevalence of HIV is concentrated in a particular sub-group of the population. Concentrated epidemics are generally considered to be low intensity epidemics.		Two types of epidemics are considered when developing AIDS forecasts, "general epidemics" where HIV is firmly established in the general population of a region or nation and "concentrated epidemics" where the prevalence of HIV is concentrated in a particular sub-group of the population. Concentrated epidemics are generally considered to be low intensity epidemics.

	In order to forecast the prevalence of HIV, pregnant women infected with HIV are used as a distal driver. Number of sexworkers,  number of intravenous drug users are used as proximate drivers to forecast the spread of HIV prevalence. Data from countries with strong reporting systems when it comes to infection with HIV are also used to inform these estimates. In case of countries with concentrated epidemics epidemiological curves specific to the particular infected sub-group are used to arrive at more accurate forecasts. In addition to this, spectrum also uses data such as number of people in the population with access to ARTs and ARVs (Anti-retroviral therapy and vaccines) to determine the rise or fall in prevalence and incidence of HIV.		In order to forecast the prevalence of HIV, pregnant women infected with HIV are used as a distal driver. Number of sexworkers,  number of intravenous drug users are used as proximate drivers to forecast the spread of HIV prevalence. Data from countries with strong reporting systems when it comes to infection with HIV are also used to inform these estimates. In case of countries with concentrated epidemics epidemiological curves specific to the particular infected sub-group are used to arrive at more accurate forecasts. In addition to this, spectrum also uses data such as number of people in the population with access to ARTs and ARVs (Anti-retroviral therapy and vaccines) to determine the rise or fall in prevalence and incidence of HIV.

	Spectrum allows the user to create projections for specific countries and regions. However, AIDS forecasts are not available for the world as a whole. The demographic data in Spectrum is from the world population prospects (WPPs) reports. The  graph below shows the forecasts from Spectrum for AIDS prevalence for the southern African region from 2016 to 2070.		Spectrum allows the user to create projections for specific countries and regions. However, AIDS forecasts are not available for the world as a whole. The demographic data in Spectrum is from the world population prospects (WPPs) reports. The  graph below shows the forecasts from Spectrum for AIDS prevalence for the southern African region from 2016 to 2070.

	~~'''https~~:~~//lh4~~.~~googleusercontent.com/u1bpKXQgVqgjy6AbEX5nI5o0WttTmgzyxyI1zAf85PksgCT2aH4mkEAIf-86F26gpvz59CSVKjrMiy5dQzxYl1LfWiUA5RFud9rpHlMC2bHTFb8A4F2NOzqwUrhpyuRPrqE6dy9xwSAJvhbGiA'''~~		[[File:HIVprevalncespectrum.png]]

	<u>'''IFs and Spectrum'''</u>		<u>'''IFs and Spectrum'''</u>
Line 21:		Line 21:
	= Instructions on pulling data from Spectrum and creating HIVPeaks data  =		= Instructions on pulling data from Spectrum and creating HIVPeaks data  =

	The spectrum model is a dynamic model that is updated every year. It is therefore recommended that the user initially check for the latest version of the model. The latest version of spectrum is available here- http://www.avenirhealth.org/software-spectrum.php.		The spectrum model is a dynamic model that is updated every year. It is therefore recommended that the user initially check for the latest version of the model. The latest version of spectrum is available here- [http://www.avenirhealth.org/software-spectrum.php http://www.avenirhealth.org/software-spectrum.php].

	<u>'''Extracting data from spectrum'''</u>		<u>'''Extracting data from spectrum'''</u>
Line 29:		Line 29:
	<u>'''Creating peakyear file'''</u>		<u>'''Creating peakyear file'''</u>

	~~'''<u></u>'''<u></u>~~Once this data has been extracted, the user should use the MAX function in excel to arrive at the highest rate of prevalence in a country. Then using the HLOOKUP function the user should calculate the peak years, i.e. the year in which the epidemic peaks in a particular country. This max prevalence and peakyear data should then be updated in the peakyear access table  "SeriesHIVPeaks" and should then be passed to the vetter for vetting. On updation of the tables in IFs, it would be prudent of the user to compare forecasts of AIDS prevalance for sample countries in IFs to those in Spectrum to identify variances and understand their reasoning.		Once this data has been extracted, the user should use the MAX function in excel to arrive at the highest rate of prevalence in a country. Then using the HLOOKUP function the user should calculate the peak years, i.e. the year in which the epidemic peaks in a particular country. This max prevalence and peakyear data should then be updated in the peakyear access table  "SeriesHIVPeaks" and should then be passed to the vetter for vetting. On updation of the tables in IFs, it would be prudent of the user to compare forecasts of AIDS prevalance for sample countries in IFs to those in Spectrum to identify variances and understand their reasoning.