Sandbox

IFs Issues and Modules: Quick Survey

The population module:

• represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
• calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
• computes average life expectancy at birth, literacy rate, and overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life
• represents migration and HIV/AIDS
• includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels

The economic module:

• represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, industry, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
• computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
• is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
• contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
• uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns
• utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
• is being imbedded during 2002 in a social accounting matrix (SAM) envelope that will tie economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows

The agricultural module:

• represents production, consumption and trade of crops and meat; it also carries ocean fish catch and aquaculture in less detail
• maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories
• represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
• is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
• overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The energy module:

• portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
• represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
• represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
• portrays changing capital costs of each energy type with technological change as well as with draw-downs of resources
• is a partial equilibrium model in which energy stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
• overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The two socio-political sub-modules:

Within countries or geographic groupings

• represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
• shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
• represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
• represents the evolution of democracy
• represents the prospects for state instability or failure

Between countries or groupings of countries

• traces changes in power balances across states and regions
• allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
• represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries

The implicit environmental module:

• is distributed throughout the overall model
• allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions

The implicit technology module:

• is distributed throughout the overall model
• allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in agriculture, energy, and the broader economy
• explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
• is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending =