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| | DeltaPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}=DeltaGPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}+DeltaPowerTranTerm^t_{act,tay}+DeltaTerDisputeTerm^t_{act,tay}+DeltaConcenTerm^t_{act,tay}</math> |
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| <math>ThreatIPredBase_{act,tay}>0</math> | | where |
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| | <math>DeltaGPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}=GPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}-GPowerTermI^{t-1}_{act,tay}</math> |
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| | <math>DeltaPowerTranTerm^t_{act,tay}=PowerTranTerm^t_{act,tay}-PowerTranTermI^{t-1}_{act,tay}</math> |
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| then
| | <math>DeltaTerDisputeTerm^t_{act,tay}=TerDisputeTerm^t_{act,tay}-TerDisputeTermI^{t-1}_{act,tay}</math> |
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| <math>ThreatIPred_{act,tay}=ThreatIPredBase_{act,tay}+PowerTranTermI_{act,tay}+AllyI_{act,tay}+DemocTermMin_{act,tay}+DemocTermDist_{act,tay}</math> | | <math>DeltaConcenTerm^t_{act,tay}=ConcenChange*\mathbf{wpcon}+ConcenChange^2*\mathbf{wpconsq}</math> |
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| where | | where |
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| <math>PowerTranTermI_{act,tay}=AnalFunc(POWER_{act},POWER_{tay},\mathbf{wppowtran1},\mathbf{wppowtran2})</math>
| | GPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}=f(POWER^t_{act},POWER^t_{tay},\mathbf{wpgreatthresh,wpgreatlev},wpgreat1,wpgreat2)</math> |
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| <math>AllyI_{act,tay}=ALLY_{act,tay}*\mathbf{wpally}</math> | | <math>PowerTranTermI^t_{act,tay}=f(POWER^t_{act},POWER^t_{tay},\mathbf{wppowtran1, wppowtran2})</math> |
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| <math>DemocTermMin_{act,tay}=Amin(DEMOCPOLITY_{act},DEMOCPOLITY_{tar})*\mathbf{wpdemmin}</math> | | <math>TerDisputeTerm^t_{act,tay}=TerDispute^t_{act,tay}*\mathbf{wpterdisp}</math> |
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| <math>DemocTermDist_{act,tay}=(DEMOCPOLITY_{act}-DEMOCPOLITY_{tar})*\mathbf{wpdemdist}
| | ConcenChange=Max(\mathbf{wpconmin},Min(\mathbf{wpconmax},PCONGREAT^t))-Max(\mathbf{wpconmmin},Min(\mathbf{wpconmax},PCONGREAT^{t-1})) |
Revision as of 19:46, 10 June 2017
DeltaPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}=DeltaGPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}+DeltaPowerTranTerm^t_{act,tay}+DeltaTerDisputeTerm^t_{act,tay}+DeltaConcenTerm^t_{act,tay}</math>
where
where
GPowerTerm^t_{act,tay}=f(POWER^t_{act},POWER^t_{tay},\mathbf{wpgreatthresh,wpgreatlev},wpgreat1,wpgreat2)</math>
ConcenChange=Max(\mathbf{wpconmin},Min(\mathbf{wpconmax},PCONGREAT^t))-Max(\mathbf{wpconmmin},Min(\mathbf{wpconmax},PCONGREAT^{t-1}))