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<math>DEMOCPOLITY^t_{\gamma}=DEMOCPOLITYBaseRev^t_{\gamma}+SwingEffect^t_{\gamma}+DemGlobalEffects^t_{\gamma}
if <math>\mathbf{sfusehist}=0</math> then (no history)
 
<math>SFINSTABALL^t_{\gamma}=PredictedTerm^t_{\gamma}</math>
 
where
 
<math>PredictedTerm^t_{\gamma}=ANALFUN(GDPPCP^t_{\gamma},DemocTerm^t,InfMorTerm^t,TradeTerm^t,Educ25Term^t)</math>
 
<math>DemocTerm=DemoPolity_{\gamma}</math>
 
<math>InfMorTerm=\frac{INFMOR_{\gamma}}{WINFMOR}</math>
 
<math>TradeTerm=\frac{X_{\gamma}+M_{\gamma}}{GDP}*100</math>
 
<math>Educ25Term=EDYRSAG25_{\gamma}

Revision as of 20:36, 14 June 2017

if 𝐬𝐟𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭=0 then (no history)

SFINSTABALLγt=PredictedTermγt

where

PredictedTermγt=ANALFUN(GDPPCPγt,DemocTermt,InfMorTermt,TradeTermt,Educ25Termt)

DemocTerm=DemoPolityγ

InfMorTerm=INFMORγWINFMOR

TradeTerm=Xγ+MγGDP*100

<math>Educ25Term=EDYRSAG25_{\gamma}