Sandbox

Purposes

International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term global futures. It assists with:

• Understanding the state of the world
• Exploring trends and considering where they might be taking us
• Learning about the dynamics of global systems

Thinking about the future we want to see:

• Clarifying goals/priorities
• Developing alternative scenarios (if-then statements) about the future
• Investigating the leverage various agent-classes have in shaping the future

Assumptions that underlie IFs development and use:

• Global issues are becoming more significant as the scope of human interaction and human impact on the broader environment grow
• Goals and priorities for human systems are becoming clearer and are more frequently and consistently enunciated
• Understanding of the dynamics of human systems is growing rapidly
• The domain of human choice and action is broadening

What can you investigate with IFs? Examples include:

• Environmental Sustainability: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, world forest area, fossil fuel usage
• Social/Political Change: Life expectancy, literacy rate, democracy level, status of women, value change
• Demographic Futures: Population levels and growth, fertility, mortality, migration
• Food and Agriculture: Land use and production levels, calorie availability, malnutrition rates
• Energy: Resource and production levels, demand patterns, renewable energy share
• Economics: Sectoral production, consumption, and trade patterns and structural change
• Global System: Country and regional power levels

 IFs Issues and Modules: Visual Representation

Among the philosophical premises of the International Futures (IFs) project is that the model cannot be a "black box" to users and be truly useful. Model users must be able to examine the structures of IFs in order (1) to have confidence in them, and (2) learn from them.

Overview of the IFs model and sub-modules.