if 𝐬𝐟𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭=0 then (no history) SFINSTABALLr,t=PredictedTermr,t
where
PredictedTermr,t=ANALFUNC(GDPPCPr,t,DemocTermt,InfMorTermt,TradeTermt,Educ25Termt)
DemocTerm=DemoPolityr
InfMorTerm=INFMORrWINFMOR
TradeTerm=Xr+MrGDP*100
<math>Educ25Term=EDYRSAG25_r