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if $𝐬 𝐟 𝐮 𝐬 𝐞 𝐡 𝐢 𝐬 𝐭 = 0$ then (no history) $S F I N S T A B A L L_{r, t} = P r e d i c t e d T e r m_{r, t}$

where

$P r e d i c t e d T e r m_{r, t} = A N A L F U N C (G D P P C P_{r, t}, D e m o c T e r m_{t}, I n f M o r T e r m_{t}, T r a d e T e r m_{t}, E d u c 25 T e r m_{t})$

$D e m o c T e r m = D e m o P o l i t y_{r}$

$I n f M o r T e r m = \frac{I N F M O R_{r}}{W I N F M O R}$

$T r a d e T e r m = \frac{X_{r} + M_{r}}{G D P} * 100$

<math>Educ25Term=EDYRSAG25_r

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