Result replication instructions: How achievable are human development SDGs on our current path of development?

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International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term country-specific, regional, and global futures. IFs integrates forecasts across different sub-models, including: population, economy, agriculture, education, energy, sociopolitical, international political, environment, technology, infrastructure, and health. The interconnection of these sub-models allows IFs to simulate how changes in one system lead to changes across all other systems.

These instructions will help you download and run scenarios that reflect work done in this study. If you would like additional information on specific result replication please direct requests to pardee.center@du.edu.

Specific instructions

  1. Download model
  2. Install IFs
  3. Run the scenarios (see below)

Necessary files

IFs Model: Link to download IFs (version 7.32)

Variable display lists: Link to download display list transmission file

General Instruction

How to run individual scenarios

Select 'Scenario Analysis' on the top left corner of the IFs home screen. Select 'Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree' from the dropdown menu. This will take you to a new interface that allows for scenario construction as well as the ability to load pre-made scenario files. The SSPs are all pre-made and loaded in the 7.32 version of IFs. To load SSP2 select 'Add Scenario Components' from the header. Select SSP2 using the following path:
World Integrated Scenario Sets > SSP scenarios > SSP2Final

Select the 'Run Scenario' option. A screen will load and the user will be prompted to enter the run year, or the time horizon of the projection. Select 2100. Select 'Start Run.'

For more information on running scenarios in IFs, please click here.

Visualizing results

There are many ways to visualize Base Case and scenario results in IFs. The Flexible Displays allows a user to display a wide variety of projected variables (sometimes in combination with historical data series), create graphs and view tables of these displays. This display also allows the user to compare results across countries, groups, and scenarios. Not all of the variables available in IFs can be found in Flexible Displays; its purpose is to provide users with access to commonly used variables. If you wish to access the full range of variables and parameters, you can do so in Self-Managed Displays. For more information on using Flexible Displays, click here and for more information on self managed displays, please click here.

Sample results

The following instructions will produce a table of results for the nine SDG outcome varaibles accross the five scenarios described in this study. After completeing the above steps, go to "Displays" followed by "Flex Display" in the main menu. In the subsequent window's menu bar, choose "Geography Options" and toggle "Using Groups." Navigate to "Development" under the display category menu, then select the display "SDG Outcome Varaibles." Next, under the geography menu, scroll down and select "World." Choose a horizon of 2050, and then select "IFsBase" and all four pathways from the scenario menu. Finally, click on "Table" at the bottom left of the window. IFs should now display the desired output table.

Relevant Documentation

IFs training manual: Link to IFs Training Manual

IFs scenario guide: Link to IFs Scenario Guide

Model documentation: Link to all documentation

Relevant code: Link to all code

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