if 𝐬𝐟𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭=1 then (use history)
SFINSTABALLγt=PredictedTermftPredictedTermft−1*𝐒𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐁𝐀𝐋𝐋γt−1
where
PredictedTerm=ANALFUN(GDPPCPγt,DemocTermt,InfMorTermt,TradeTermt,Educ25Termt)
DemocTerm=DemoPolityγ
InfMorTerm=INFMORγWINFMOR
TradeTerm=Xγ+MγGDP*100
Educ25Term=EDYRSAG25γ