IFs Issues and Modules: Quick Survey

The population module:

represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
computes average life expectancy at birth, literacy rate, and overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life
represents migration and HIV/AIDS
includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels

The economic module:

represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, industry, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns
utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
is being imbedded during 2002 in a social accounting matrix (SAM) envelope that will tie economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows

The agricultural module:

represents production, consumption and trade of crops and meat; it also carries ocean fish catch and aquaculture in less detail
maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories
represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The energy module:

portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
portrays changing capital costs of each energy type with technological change as well as with draw-downs of resources
is a partial equilibrium model in which energy stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The two socio-political sub-modules:

Within countries or geographic groupings

represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
represents the evolution of democracy
represents the prospects for state instability or failure

Between countries or groupings of countries

traces changes in power balances across states and regions
allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries

The implicit environmental module:

is distributed throughout the overall model
allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions

The implicit technology module:

is distributed throughout the overall model
allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in agriculture, energy, and the broader economy
explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending =

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