April 2016 consolidation

New data

• Education - Attainment - UNHDRO - 3 series nonpreprocessor, pulled by Joel, vetted by Brandon

SeriesEdYearsAge25UNHDRO

SeriesEDYearsFemaleAge25UNHDRO

SeriesEDYearsMaleAge25UNHDRO

• Education - Expected years of schooling - UIS - 2 new series (male and female disaggregated), non preprocessor - pulled by Brandon, vetted by Kristen

SeriesEdExpectedYearsofSchoolingFemale

SeriesEdExpectedYearsofSchoolingMale

• Education - Vocation - UIS - 6 series, non preprocessor - pulled by Brandon, vetted by Andrew

SeriesEdSecLowerVoc%AllFemale

SeriesEdSecLowerVoc%AllMale

SeriesEdSecLowerVoc%AllTotal

SeriesEdSecUpperVoc%AllFemale

SeriesEdSecUpperVoc%AllMale

SeriesEdSecUpperVoc%AllTotal

• SocioPol - Global Gender Gap - WEF - 1 series, nonpreprocessor - pulled by Joel, vetted by Brandon
  • Changed "notes" from "BV; GE,JM" to "JM;BV"

SeriesGlobalGenderGap

• Economy - Govt Outlays - OECD - 1 series, preprocessor - pulled by Joel vetted by Kristen
  • Changed notes to "JM;KK"

SeriesGovTotalOutlays%GDP

• SocioPol - HDR - 4 series, nonpreprocessor - pulled by Joel, vetted by Andrew
  • Changed "notes" to "JS;AS"

SeriesGenIneqInd

SeriesHDI

SeriesHDIIneqAdj

SeriesPovMulDim

• SocioPol - Doing_Business - World Bank - 24 series, nonpreprcoessor - pulled by Kristen, vetted by Nenani

SeriesGovWBDoingBusConstructionPermitDays

SeriesGovWBDoingBusConstructionPermitProcedures

SeriesGovWBDoingBusContainerExportCostUSD

SeriesGovWBDoingBusContainerImportCostUSD

SeriesGovWBDoingBusContractEnforceDays

SeriesGovWBDoingBusCostClose

SeriesGovWBDoingBusCreditTransparency

SeriesGovWBDoingBusDirectorLiability

SeriesGovWBDoingBusDisclosureIndex

SeriesGovWBDoingBusExportDocumentationNeeded

SeriesGovWBDoingBusImportDays

SeriesGovWBDoingBusImportDocumentationNeeded

SeriesGovWBDoingBusinessCostofStarting

SeriesGovWBDoingBusinessProcedures

SeriesGovWBDoingBusinessPropRegDays

SeriesGovWBDoingBusinessRanking

SeriesGovWBDoingBusinessStartDays

SeriesGovWBDoingBusInvestorProtection

SeriesGovWBDoingBusLegalRightsStrengthIndex

SeriesGovWBDoingBusPropertyProceduresRequired

SeriesGovWBDoingBusShareholderSuits

SeriesGovWBDoingBusTaxHoursperPerson

SeriesGovWBDoingBusTimeClose

SeriesGovWBDoingBusTotalTaxRate

• Energy - reserves and resources - BGR - 17 series, (some) preprocessor - pulled by Brandon, vetted by Kristen
  • From Steve: Changed "notes" column to include "BV" and "KK" because Brandon pulled and Kristen vetted.
  • From Steve: Changed "Source" column for all from
    • "BGR; "Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2012"
      Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) in Hannover; Annual Report. Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2012" to
    • "BGR; "Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2014"
      Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) in Hannover; Annual Report. Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2012,2013,2014"

SeriesEnCumProdGasBGR

SeriesEnCumProdOilBGR

SeriesEnReserCBMBGR

SeriesEnReserGasBGR

SeriesEnReserHeavyOilBGR

SeriesEnReserOilBGR

SeriesEnReserOilSandsBGR

SeriesEnReserShaleGasBGR

SeriesEnReserShaleOilBGR

SeriesEnResorCBMBGR

SeriesEnResorGasBGR

SeriesEnResorHeavyOilBGR

SeriesEnResorOilBGR

SeriesEnResorOilSandsBGR

SeriesEnResorShaleGasBGR

SeriesEnResorShaleOilBGR

SeriesEnResorTightGasBGR

• Water - Irrigation - MY_GEO_HUB  - 1 series, non-preprocessor (yet), pulled by Joel, vetted by Brandon
  • There was a space in "Series LandIrAreaEquipSiebert" - removed space
  • Added "MY GEO HUB" to the source definition
  • Changed notes from "BV;JM" to "JM;BV"
  • Changed aggregation rule from "None" to "Sum"

SeriesLandIrAreaEquipSiebert

• SocioPol - WGI - 6 series, Pulled by Kanishka, vetted by Kristen

SeriesGovernanceEffect

SeriesGovernanceRegQual

SeriesGovWBGovMatCorrupt

SeriesGovWBGovMatPolStab

SeriesGovWBGovMatRuleLaw

SeriesGovWBGovMatVoiceAcct

Affected modules

Energy

We updated oil, gas, and coal resources and reserves using the 2014 report from BGR.

Oil

Largest percentage increases in oil production in Mongolia, Pakistan, and Niger (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Increases in oil production (new Base Case over old (7.21) Base Case). Mongolia (green), Pakistan (red) and Niger (blue).

Mongolian oil resources increased from 52 Mt in 2011 to 1,048 in 2012. Mongolian oil reserves increased from 2 Mt in 2011 to 35 in 2012.

Pakistan oil resources increased from 188 Mt in 2011 to 1,422 in 2012. Pakistan's oil reserves increased from 34 Mt in 2012 to 47 in 2013.

Niger's oil resources increased from 30 Mt in 2012 to 50 Mt in 2013. Niger's oil reserves increased from 0 in 2011 to 20 Mt in 2013.

Global oil production decreases only slightly (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Global oil production in Base Case (7.21) and new Base Case.

Figure 3: Changes in oil production (BBOE) by country, cumulative. The largest increase is in the US (green), followed by Pakistan (grey), and Russia (pink). The largest decrease is in China (brown).

In absolute terms, the largest increases occur in the US, Pakistan, and Russia (Figure 3). The largest decrease is in China.

Oil resources in the US increased from 24,116 Mt in 2011 to 29,321 in 2012 and then to 30,826 in 2012. Oil reserves in the US increased from 4,463 Mt in 2011 to 4,764 in 2012 and 6,274 in 2013. As stated above, Pakistan's oil resources and reserves have increased since 2011.

Russian oil resources increased from 38,948 Mt in 2011 to 46,669 in 2012 and then to 47,458 Mt in 2013. Likewise, Russian oil reserves increased from 11,868 Mt in 2012 to 12,657 in 2013.

China's oil resources were decreased from 59,146 Mt in 2011 to 23,083 Mt in 2012. This doesn't impact overall energy production for China all that much because over 80% of China's primary energy production is from coal and they have nearly 5.5 milliont Mt of hard coal resources.

Gas

The largest proportional increase is ibbn South Sudan. This is because we have estimated a value for South Sudan using the data point for "Sudan and South Sudan" in the BGR report and then disaggregating based on land area. See the BGR data page for more details on this methodology.

Global gas production increases after adding the new data (Figure 4).

The largest increases in absolute terms occur in Algeria (red) and USA (brown plus-signs). The largest decrease occurs in Norway (yellow) and Mexico (teal) (Figure 5).

Algerian gas resources increased from 17,818 BCM in 2011 to 31,224 in 2012 (no change from 2012 to 2013). This impacts GDP significantly since Algeria is such a large gas producer. Algeria's GDP is over 9 percent larger by the late 2060s with this new data included than in 7.21.

Figure 4: Global gas production in the Base Case (7.21) and after adding BGR resources and reserves data.

Figure 5: Changes in gas production in absolute BBOE (cumulative) in the Base Case of 7.21 compared to the new Base Case after adding new BGR data on resources and reserves.

Socio-political

Data for governance effectiveness were updated to 2014. Previously, the data ended in 2012. The largest decrease occurs in Taiwan and the largest increase occurs in Fiji (Figure 6).

Likewise, data on government regulatory quality from the WGI was updated to 2014. The largest increases in regulatory quality were Myanmar and Vanuatu and the largest decreases were in Taiwan an

Figure 6: Changes in government effectiveness in the Base Case of 7.21 and after including the new WGI data.

d Libya (Figure 7).  

Figure 7: Changes in regulatory quality in the Base Case (7.21) and after adding new WGI data.

These are the only 2 preprocessor series that were updated from the WGI data.

Since both effectiveness and regulatory quality were decreased in Madagascar, natural gas production decreases in the new forecast relative to the Base Case. Since we forecast Madagascar to produce gas in the future, this directly affects their GDP. After adding these new data, GDP in Madagascar decreases by over 24% in 2100.