Political Instability Task Force (PITF), Center for Systematic Peace

Summary

The Polity data series, originally designed by Ted Robert Gurr, contains coded annual information on regime and authority characteristics for 161 independent states (fundamentally those with greater than 500,000 total population) in the global state system and covers the years 1800-2018. The Polity database is housed at Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), at the University of Maryland, College Park series and is available at http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm (current data for Polity Project moved to this website) . Monty Marshall has been kind in providing recent updates to the IFs project.

The Polity IV dataset provides substantial information on regime types and behavior. Polity codes were originally assigned according to three general categories of authority patterns: executive recruitment, executive constraints, and political competition. Later, these general categories were disaggregated into six component variables. IFs has drawn primarily on their indices of democracy and autocracy.

Tables In IFs

Variable	Definition	Ext Source Def	Last IFs Update	Name in Source	UsedInPreprocessor	UsedInPreprocessorFileName
SFPITFEthnicWarEv	Describes the presence of Ethnic War in a region for a particular year. (1 = yes, 0 = no)	Data is Binary 1 = event presence 0 = no event	6/4/2020	PITF Ethnic War 2018	1	STFAILURE
SFPITFEthnicWarMag	Describes the average magnitude of a Ethnic War event. Range 0-4. 9=Missing	Highest magnitude chosen if multiple events in one year.	6/4/2020	AVEMAG	1	STFAILURE
SFPITFGenocideEv	Describes the presence of Genocide/Politicide event. (1 = yes, 0 = no)	Data is Binary 1 = event presence 0=no event	6/4/2020	PITF GenoPoliticide 2018	1	STFAILURE
SFPITFGenocideMag	Describes the scaled annual number of death of Genocide/Politicide event. Range 0-5. 9=Missing	Highest magnitude chosen if multiple events in one year.	6/4/2020	DeathMag	1	STFAILURE
SFPITFRegTranEv	Describes the presence of Regime Change event.  (1 = yes, 0 = no)	Data is Binary 1 = event presence 0 = no event; Sudan-North is treated as Sudan	5/15/2020	PITF Adverse Regime Change 2018	1	STFAILURE
SFPITFRegTranMag	Describes the average magnitude of Regime Change event. Range 0-4. 9=Missing	Highest magnitude chosen if multiple events in one year.	6/4/2020	MAGAVE	1	STFAILURE
SFPITFRevolWarEv	Describes the presence of Revolutionary War event.  (1 = yes, 0 = no)	Data is Binary 1 = event presence 0 = no event; Sudan-North is treated as Sudan	5/15/2020	PITF Revolutionary War 2018	1	STFAILURE
SFPITFRevolWarMag	Describes the average magnitude of Revolutionary War event. Range 0-4. 9=Missing	Highest magnitude chosen if multiple events in one year.	6/4/2020	AVEMAG	1	STFAILURE

Data Pulling Instructions

1. The data is available at this website , http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
2. Select the data related to the table. For instance, for SFPITFRevolWarMag download Revolutionary Wars. More infor is in Data Notes.
   

Data Notes

Types of Data

1. Ethnic War event: Describes the occurrence of Ethnic War in a region for a particular year. Data is binary, i.e. 1- War event, 0- No event
2. Ethnic War magnitude: Describes the Average death magnitude of the war event Range of 0-4. In case of multiple events in the same year for same region, select highest value amongst all available values.
3. Genocide-Politicide Event: Describes the occurrence of Genocide/Politicide event. Data is binary, i.e. 1- Event occurrence, 0-No event
4. Genocide-Politicide Magnitude: Describes the Average death magnitude of the event. Range of 0-4. In case of multiple events in the same year for same region, select highest value amongst all available values.
5. Regime Change Event: Describes the occurrence of Regime Change event. Data is binary, i.e. 1- Event occurrence, 0-No event
6. Regime Change magnitude: Describes the Average death magnitude of the event Range of 0-4. In case of multiple events in the same year for same region, select highest value amongst all available values.
7. Revolutionary War event: Describes the occurrence of Revolutionary War event. Data is binary, i.e. 1- Event occurrence, 0-No event
8. Revolutionary War magnitude: Describes the Average death magnitude of the event Range of 0-4. In case of multiple events in the same year for same region, select highest value amongst all available values.

Series calculated automatically by IFs

There are certain series which are automatically calculated by Ifs using the above data.

1. SFPITFInternalWarEv
2. SFPITFInternalWarEvProb
3. SFPITFInternalWarMagAvg
4. SFPITFInternalWarY1Prob
5. SFPITFConsolidatedEv
6. SFPITFConsolidatedMag

Issues in the data and their resolution

1. Retrospective changes-Along with the PITF updates for future years, historical PITF data is constantly updated due to quantifications completed in this year in relation to events occurring in the previous years. E.g. The Uighur revolution that occurred in China in 2009, was added to the PITF data in 2015 since quantification was completed in 2015.  Magnitudes are also changed from time to time retrospectively. (It is highly recommended that instead of just adding current year data to the Ifs file, the User perform a comparison of historical Ifs data and the PITF data to identify any retrospective changes. This can be done by first converting the PITF data into panel format by using the pivot table function in Excel, and then using a VLOOKUP to identify differences)
2. Representation of Arab Spring- The political instability of the Arab Spring is not adequately represented in the PITF data. For example, no events exist for Tunisia in the latest PITF update. This is mainly on account of the present unavailability of data regarding the magnitude of these events.

Ultimately, IFs cumulates all of the above series and computes the Internal War Event index and Internal War Magnitude Index for all countries and regions. Below is a chart describing, the Internal War Magnitude across country groups from 1955 to 2015.

Source: International Futures 7.22