S F I N T L W A R r , t = ( ( 0.1420 + 0.0012 ∗ I N F M O R r , t − 0.0006 ∗ T R A D E O P E N r , t ) + F ( P O L I T Y D E M O C r , t , Y T H B U L G E r , t , G D P M A r , t , S F I N T L W A R M A r , t ) ) ∗ s f i n t l w a r m r , t {\displaystyle SFINTLWAR_{r,t}=((0.1420+0.0012*INFMOR_{r,t}-0.0006*TRADEOPEN_{r,t})+F(POLITYDEMOC_{r,t},YTHBULGE_{r,t},GDPMA_{r,t},SFINTLWARMA_{r,t}))*\mathbf {sfintlwarm} _{r,t}}
where
<math>TRADEOPEN_{r,t}=(X_{r,t}+M_{r,t})/GDP_{r,t}
