S w i n g E f f e c t s r , t = t i m e a d j ∗ s w i n g s t s d e m r = S w i n g e r , p = 1 ∗ ( W D e m o c t − 1 − D E M O C P O L I T Y r = S w i n g e e , t − 1 + t i m a d j ∗ s w i n g s t d e m r = S w i n g e r , p = 2 ∗ ( D E M O C P O L I T Y r = S w i n g e r , t − 1 − D E M O C P O L I T Y r = S w i n g e e , t − 1 ) + t i m a d j ∗ s w i n g s t d e m r = S w i n g e r , p = 3 ∗ ( R g D e m o c − D E M O C P O L I T Y r = S w i n g e e , t − 1 ) {\displaystyle SwingEffects_{r,t}=timeadj*\mathbf {swingstsdem} _{r=Swinger,p=1}*(WDemoc_{t-1}-DEMOCPOLITY_{r=Swingee,t-1}+timadj*\mathbf {swingstdem_{r=Swinger,p=2}} *(DEMOCPOLITY_{r=Swinger,t-1}-DEMOCPOLITY_{r=Swingee,t-1})+timadj*\mathbf {swingstdem_{r=Swinger,p=3}} *(RgDemoc-DEMOCPOLITY_{r=Swingee,t-1})}
where timeadj=.2
W D e m o c t − 1 = ∑ R D E M O C P O L I T Y r , t − 1 R {\displaystyle WDemoc_{t-1}={\frac {\sum ^{R}DEMOCPOLITY_{r,t-1}}{R}}}
else
S w i n g E f f e c t s r , t = 0 {\displaystyle SwingEffects_{r,t}=0}
