Economic preprocessor: Difference between revisions

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'''Notes:''' mjs: Data is transformed to percent of gdp using current us$ GDP; MJE
'''Notes:''' mjs: Data is transformed to percent of gdp using current us$ GDP; MJE
IMF loans (CXIMFCREDIT) are initialized using '''SeriesXIMFCredit%GDP.'''
'''Source: '''WDI Batch pull
'''Definiton: '''IMF credits as % of GDP
'''Notes:''' mjs: Data is transformed to percent of gdp using current us$ GDP; MJE
<span style="color: rgb(0, 128, 0);"><br/></span>
<span style="color: rgb(0, 128, 0);">'&nbsp;&nbsp; Allocate World Bank Loans to Advanced Countries<br/>'&nbsp;&nbsp; -----------------------------------------------</span>
<span style="color: rgb(0, 128, 0);"></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Allocate total World Bank loans to "advanced countries" (countries with GDP per capita over 10,000 USD and no World Bank loans) based on size of economy. Use one countries share of the total GDP of all advanced countries to determine the share of total WB debt that they lend.</span>
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; PerCap = CGDP(ICount%) / CPop(ICount%)<br/>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; If PerCap > 10 And CXWBLOANS(ICount%) <= 0.001 Then<br/>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CXWBLOANS(ICount%) = -CGDP(ICount%) / AdvGDPXWBDebt * (GloXWBDebt / AMAX(1, sxwblneqr))<br/>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; End If<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span>
Do the same for IMF debt.

Revision as of 22:52, 9 May 2016

There are 72 series marked as "economic" in the "group" field that are read into the preprocessor. Most of them come from World_Development_Indicators (WDI). There are quite a few series marked as "IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL". There are a lot of data on the informal economy from ILO-WIEGO. Cyber data also appears to be read into DataEcon.

Sources

IMF, ILO, WDI, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 

Economic series used in preprocessor

This table was created by filtering DataDict (7.20) by "Used in preprocessor" and then choosing the following "Group" names: Economic; Economic, infrastructure; Economic, SocioPolitical; Economic, Trade. Sorted by "Last IFs Update".

DataDict 720
Table Group Definition Source Last IFs Update UsedInPreprocessor Years
SeriesVaddICT%GDP Economic, Infrastructure Total ICT market share as % of GDP Information Society Statistics Pocketbook 2001
Yes
SeriesGDP2003PPP Economic GDP (PPP) CIA (original partly World Bank); extended by Evan Hillebrand 2004/07 Yes
SeriesGDP2000PCPPP Economic GDP per capita (constant 2000 PPP International $) CIA and constructed (original mostly World Bank) 2012/02/24 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcEdCen%GDP Economic Education spending, government, Central government, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcEdTot%GDP Economic Education spending, government, total, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcExpendCen%GDP Economic Expenditure, government, Central government, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcExpendTot%GDP Economic Expenditure, government, total, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcHealthCen%GDP Economic Health spending, government, Central government, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcHealthTot%GDP Economic Health spending, government, total, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcRevCen%GDP Economic Revenue, government, Central government, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGovtCalcRevTot%GDP Economic Revenue, government, total, as % of GDP IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL 2013/12/20 Yes
SeriesGDP2005PCPPP Economic GDP per capita (constant 2005 PPP International $) WDI 2013; extrapolated based on previous GDP_PCPPP2005 values in IFs; extrapolated based on CIA Factbook; taken directly from CIA Factbook; taken directly from previous GDP_PCPPP2005 values in IFs 2013/12/23 Yes
SeriesGDPInformal%Elgin Economic Informal economy as % of GDP, from Elgin and Oztunali (2012) Available at: http://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/public_html/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf 2014/04/04 Yes
SeriesLaborInformal%TotalFemaleWB Economic Labor, informal, as a share of total, female World Bank Gender Statistics 2014/04/28 Yes
SeriesLaborInformal%TotalMaleWB Economic Labor, informal, as a share of total, male World Bank Gender Statistics 2014/04/28 Yes
SeriesLaborInformal%TotalAllBlended Economic Labor, informal, as a share of total, all, blended from ILO-WIEGO and World Bank Blended from ILO-WEIGO and calculated World Bank 2014/10/21 Yes
SeriesGDPInformal%Blended Economic Informal economy as % of GDP, blended from 2 sources (UNECE, Schneider and Elgin) UNECE, "Non-Observed Economy in National Accounts: Survey of Country Practices"; http://rru.worldbank.org/Documents/PapersLinks/informal_economy.pdf; http://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/public_html/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf 2015/01/13 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalFemale%FormalSec Economic Female employment as a % of informal formal sector employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalFemale%HHInformal Economic Female employment as a % of informal household sector employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalFemale%InformalSec Economic Female employment as a % of informal informal sector employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalFormSec%TotalInformal Economic Formal sector as a % of total informal employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalHH%TotalInformal Economic Household sector as a % of total informal employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalInfSec%TotalInformal Economic Informal sector as a % of total informal employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalMale%FormalSec Economic Male employment as a % of informal formal sector employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalMale%HHInformal Economic Male employment as a % of informal household sector employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesLaborInformalMale%InformalSec Economic Male employment as a % of informal informal sector employment ILO-WIEGO 2015/03/10 Yes
SeriesAidRec%GNI Economic Official development assistance and official aid, net, % of GNI WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesAidRecGrant%Total Economic Official development assistance and official aid, grants and other revenue, current LCU WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesArmsImp%TotImp Economic, Trade Arms imports (SIPRI trend indicator values) WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesExportGoodSer% Economic, Trade Exports of goods and services as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesExportServices Economic Exports of services (BoP, current currency) WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesExportsMerchandise Economic Exports of merchandise (current currency) WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesGDPCurDol Economic Gross Domestic Product in Current US$ WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesGovCon%GDP Economic Government (general) final consumption as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesHouseCon%GDP Economic Household final consumption expenditure as percent of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesImportGoodSer% Economic Imports of goods and services as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesImportServices Economic, Trade Imports of services (current currency) WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesImportsMerchandise Economic Imports of merchandise (current currency) WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/14 Yes
SeriesVaddAg% Economic Value added in agriculture as percent of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesVaddInd% Economic Value added in industry as percent of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesVaddMan% Economic Value added in manufacturing as percent of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesVaddSer% Economic Value added in services as percent of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXCurActBal%GDP Economic Current account balance (% of GDP) WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXDebt Economic External long-term (more than 1 year) debt: public, publically guaranteed and priv nonguaranteed WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXDebtPNG%GDP Economic External debt, private non-guaranteed, as percentage of gross domestic product WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXDebtPPG%GDP Economic External debt, public and publicly guaranteed, as percentage of gross domestic product WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXFDIInflows%GDP Economic Foreign direct investment net inflow as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXFDIOutflows%GDP Economic Foreign direct investment net outflow as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXFlowsIBRD%GDP Economic Net flows from IBRD as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXFlowsIDA%GDP Economic Net flows from IDA as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXFlowsIMFCon%GDP Economic Net concessional flows from IMF as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXFlowsIMFNonCon%GDP Economic Net nonconcessional flows from IMF as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXIMFCredit%GDP Economic IMF credits as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXIncPayments%GDP Economic Income payments as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXIncReceipts%GDP Economic Income receipts as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXPortBonds%GDP Economic Portfolio investment in bonds (PPG and PNG) as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXPortEquity%GDP Economic Portfolio investment in equity as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXReserves%GDP Economic Gross international reserves as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXWBLoans%GDP Economic IBRD loans and IDA credits as % of GDP WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXWorkerRemitPaid Economic, SocioPolitical Worker remittances by country where paid WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesXWorkerRemitReceived Economic, SocioPolitical Worker remittances received by home country WDI BATCH PULL 2015/07/15 Yes
SeriesInvestGrCapForm%GDP Economic Gross capital formation (Investment), percent of GDP WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesLabor Economic Labor force size WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesLaborAgr%TotFemale Economic Employees, agriculture, female as % of female employment WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesLaborAgr%TotMale Economic Employees, agriculture, males as % of male employment WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesLaborFemale% Economic Portion of labor force made up by women WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesLaborSecInd%Tot Economic Labor in industry as % of total WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesLaborSecSer%Tot Economic Labor in services as % of total WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesOresMetsEx%MerchEx Economic Ores and Metals exports as % of merchandise exports WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesOresMetsIm%MerchIm Economic Ores and Metals imports as % of merchandise imports WDI 2015 BATCH PULL 2015/07/22 Yes
SeriesGDP2011 Economic Gross Domestic Product in 2011 constant dollars WDI - Caluclated from WDI and other sources; IMF WEO 2013 Real GDP Growth Rates for 2010-2014; CIA factbook for some countries (e.g., PRK; SSD; SOM); WEO (Taiwan); ERS; Gaps filled using growth rates from ERS or previous version of IFs 2015/09/18 Yes
SeriesGDP2011PCPPP Economic GDP per capita (constant 2011 PPP International $) WDI - calculaed from WDI and other sources; extrapolated based on previous GDP_PCPPP2005 values in IFs; extrapolated based on CIA Factbook; taken directly from CIA Factbook; taken directly from previous GDP_PCPPP2005 values in IFs 2015/09/18 Yes

Initializations

Use government consumption and expenditures data to initialize SAM.

Government consumption

Government consumption (CGovCon) is initialized using SeriesGovCon%GDP.

Source: WDI

Definition: Government (general) final consumption as % of GDP

Sum up government consumption from sectors.

CGConFromSectors = GExpDef(ICount%) + GExpEd(ICount%) + GExpRandD(ICount%) + GExpHl(ICount%) + GExpInfra(ICount%) + GExpInfraOther(ICount%)

Set CGovCon as the max of CGovCon and the CGovCon calculated as the sum of sectors. Bound between 9 and 35.

Government expenditures

Initialize central government expenditures and total government expenditures and then calculate local government expenditures as the difference.

Central government expenditures (GovtExpCentral) is initialized using SeriesGovExpense%GDP

Source: WDI

Definition: Government expense as % of GDP (compare with govt expenditures)

Extended definition: Expense is cash payments for operating activities of the government in providing goods and services. It includes compensation of employees, interest and subsidies, grants, social benefits, and other expenses such as rent and dividends

Note: This series has "government" as the group.


Use SeriesGovtCalcExpendTot%GDP to initialize total government expenditures.

Source: IMF GFS

Definition: Expenditure, government, total, as % of GDP

If null, then use SeriesGovTotalOutlays%GDP

Source: OECD Statistics Database Online

Definition: Government total outlays (% of GDP), including forecast

Hard code 46 in for Ireland in 2010 because of bailout.

If no data on total expenditures still, then we cannot estimate local so we use this equation:

        If IsNull(CGovTotExp) Then
            CGovExpLocal(ICount%) = 2 + 12 * Amin(20, CGDPPCP(ICount%)) / 20
        Else
            CGovExpLocal(ICount%) = AMAX(1, CGovTotExp - GovExpCentral)
        End If

        CGovExp(ICount%) = GovExpCentral + CGovExpLocal(ICount%) 'Add Central plus local to get total

'   Go to total govt expenditures and filling holes when have data in order to compute local govt
'       When do not have total and therefore ability to compute local govt,
'       estimate at 2-14% of GDP (OECD gap between total and central is 14%)
'       North, Walli, Weingast p. 10 have table showing grows from 1-2% to 16%

Government revenue

Central government revenue (GovRevCen) is initialized using SeriesGovtCurRev%GDP

Source: WDI

Definition: Current government revenue as % of GDP

Extended definition: blended with old Ifs data.  Revenue is cash receipts from taxes, social contributions, and other revenues such as fines, fees, rent, and income from property or sales. Grants are also considered as revenue but are excluded here.

If it's null or less than 5 then we use GDP per capita to estimate.



Total government revenue (GovRevTot) is initialized using SeriesGovtCalcRevTot%GDP

Source: IMF GFS

Definition: Revenue, government, total, as % of GDP


If GovRevTot is null i.e. there is no data for total government revenue for the country in SeriesGovtCalcRevTot%GDP (or the value is less than 5) then esimate using GDP per capita (2005). Then set GovRevTot as the max of total government revenues and central government revenues. Cap total government revenues at 75. Set local government revenue as the difference between total and central.

Note: This logic creates problems for countries where there is not a total government revenue data point but there is a central government data point (ex. Malawi). In this case, both total government revenue and central government revenue are initialized as the data value for central government revenue and local government revenue is set at zero (the difference between total and central).




Firm tax rate (CFirmTaxR) is initialized using SeriesTaxCorp%Tot

Source: IMF Government Finance Statistics (2001)

Definition: Corporate taxes as percent of total central government revenue

Note: Apparently not part of batch pull. Also, has "government" as the group.


Social security tax (CSSWelTaxR) is initialized using SeriesTaxSocSec%CurRev 

Source: WDI

Definition: Social security taxes as % of total govt revenue


Indirect taxes (CIndirectTaxR) is initialized using SeriesTaxGoodSer%CurRev

Source: WDI

Definition: Taxes on goods and services as % of total govt revenue


Household taxes (CHHTaxR) estimated as residual from firm, welfare, and indirect taxes

Transfers

CGovSSWel is initialized using SeriesGovSSWelBen%Exp

Source: WDI

Definition: Government Social Security and welfare expenditures as % of total expenditures

Note: Not included in last WDI batch pull

Reconciliation

'       Govcon+SSWEL=GOVEXP; give priority first to boosting Govcon, then reducing sswel, then boosting Govexp
            'i.e. protext all of govcon and boost if possible; reduce sswel as needed; reduce govexp after sswel

Pensions

Government pensions (CGovHHPenT) are initalized using SeriesGovtPension%GDP

Source: Data was processed from World Bank's  pensions site.

Extended source: "International Patterns of Pension Provision" by Palacios and Pallares-Miralles,  2000; OECD Social Expenditure Database. World Bank Pensions Performance Indicators Q2, 2013.

Definition: Government (public) pensions as % of GDP

Note: Newer pension data exists in IFs but is not pulled into preprocessor

Reconcile with trade

Normalize Expenditure Components to 100% - (X-M)

Split into sectors

Government consumption

'   Split Government Consumption and Investment into Sectors of Origin
'   ------------------------------------------------------------------

    For ICount% = 1 To CCount
            GMN(ICount%) = 0.1 * CGCon(ICount%) 'Manufacturing spending assumed to be 10% of conumption
            GSR(ICount%) = 0.9 * CGCon(ICount%) 'Services spending assumed to be 90% of consumption
            IMN(ICount%) = CINVEST(ICount%) * 0.5 'Manufacturing investment assumed to be 50% of investment
            ISR(ICount%) = CINVEST(ICount%) * 0.5 'Services investment assumed to be 50% of investment
    Next ICount%

Personal consumption

'   Split Personal Consumption into Sectors - Use Value Added and AMAT
'   ------------------------------------------------------------------

Use AMAT data to initalize personal consumption for agriculture, manufacturing, and services.

Adjust personal energy consumption based on world energy price and energy exports (exporters tend to consume more).

Initalize ICT personal consumption using ICTShare

Normalize with total consumption.

Social Accounting Matrix

'   Social Accounting Matrix Stocks.  Begin with Stocks because some needed for flows

Stocks

'   SAM Stocks: Start with World Bank and IMF Loans and Credits - Want to be
'       sure that external debt/assets cover known values

World Bank (CXWBLOANS) is initialized using SeriesXWBLoans%GDP.

Source: WDI Batch Pull

Definition:IBRD loans and IDA credits as % of GDP

Notes: mjs: Data is transformed to percent of gdp using current us$ GDP; MJE


IMF loans (CXIMFCREDIT) are initialized using SeriesXIMFCredit%GDP.

Source: WDI Batch pull

Definiton: IMF credits as % of GDP

Notes: mjs: Data is transformed to percent of gdp using current us$ GDP; MJE


'   Allocate World Bank Loans to Advanced Countries
'   -----------------------------------------------

Allocate total World Bank loans to "advanced countries" (countries with GDP per capita over 10,000 USD and no World Bank loans) based on size of economy. Use one countries share of the total GDP of all advanced countries to determine the share of total WB debt that they lend.

        PerCap = CGDP(ICount%) / CPop(ICount%)
        If PerCap > 10 And CXWBLOANS(ICount%) <= 0.001 Then
            CXWBLOANS(ICount%) = -CGDP(ICount%) / AdvGDPXWBDebt * (GloXWBDebt / AMAX(1, sxwblneqr))
        End If

Do the same for IMF debt.