Use IFs (Download): General Performance Analysis

Performance and Risk Analysis

Performance and Risk Analysis is located under the Specialized Display sub-option, as well as on the Main Menu Map. This feature is a tool to forecast the level of risk and performance of a given country or group over a time horizon of nearly one hundred years.

The first step in using this feature is to decide whether to examine a country or a group. For this example, the selected country is Kenya. Next, decide which year to examine. Select any year up to 2100 using the “Select Year” drop-down at the top of the screen. Next, decide which file to use.

Example of a performance and risk evaluation for Kenya 2030

The menu bar at the top of the screen includes the following tools:

• Continue: Go back to the previous menu or to the Main Menu of IFs.

• Using Country/Regions: Switch

• Help: Go to the corresponding page in the Pardee Wiki for the current feature or display.
• Display Options: Customize how performance and risk are evaluated and displayed. Options include:
  • Recalculate and update with new weights: Refresh the evaluation by recalculating values based on any updated weightings entered by the user in the table.
  • Using absolute evaluation (checked by default): Compare each variable against fixed, global goal and alert thresholds for a universal standard across countries and regions.
  • Using relative evaluation with income level: Adjust evaluation thresholds (goal and alert levels) based on the average values within a country’s income group. This mode doesn't display the group names but updates the threshold values in the table to reflect peer-relative performance.
  • Select multiple scenarios: Compare performances across several different scenario run files.
  • Select multiple Country/Regions or Groups: Evaluate and compare multiple countries or predefined regional groupings simultaneously.

The calculation of the performance and risk is based on a number of variables, such as Corruption, Youth Bulge, and State fragility, divided into categories, such as Governance, Population, and Social/Political. The variables are highlighted in green, yellow or red. The color indicates whether or not the variable has met the goal level set for that variable. If it has, the variable will be highlighted in green. If it has not, it will either be highlighted in yellow, if the value for the variable is between the alert level and the goal level, or in red, if the value for the variable has crossed the threshold for the alert level.

These goal and alert levels can be evaluated in two ways:

- Absolute evaluation compares each variable to fixed global targets.

- Relative evaluation with income level adjusts the thresholds based on a country’s income group, although income groups are not displayed explicitly; only the goal and alert values change accordingly.

Additional columns include Global Rank, Scaled Level, and Weighting for deeper analysis and the ability to customize a summary score. A GDP per capita value is also displayed at the top and can be edited.

To look at a variable in greater detail, click on the variable name. A box appears that allows the user to select from three options:

- Cross-Sectional Relationship displays the selected variable in relation to GDP per capita.

- Provide Information gives additional context about the variable.

- Show Count presents a pop-up summary of how many countries fall into each risk category—green (goal met), yellow (moderate risk), and red (alert level)—for the selected variable.

Click on a number in the table (such as the Value or Scaled Level columns) to get the variable over time or across countries. This brings up a box with two options:

- Show Over Time opens a table showing the selected variable’s forecast across years for the chosen country.

- Display All Years and All Countries Ranked opens a comparative view with a matrix of values across time and multiple countries to explore rankings and trends globally.

For more information on how to use the available table tools, see the Table Use page.

Evaluate Priorities

Feature is no longer available or outdated in the model.

Evaluate Priorities can be found under the Specialized Display sub-option under the Display option on the Main Menu. It is also located under the Main Menu Map options.

This display feature of IFs allows users to analyze and evaluate any Run-Result-File normatively. Users can set evaluative criterion and assign them numerical weights. The model is then run and each criterion is evaluated with respect to what variables most heavily affected the resulting number.

Example of evaluated priorities for a particular country/region or group

When this option is selected from the Display option on the Main Menu and the Specialized Display sub-option, a window opens that asks for your name. You are then guided to a menu that allows you to flexibly evaluate your Run-Result-File to your needs and goals.

On the Evaluate Priorities menu, you are able to toggle between countries/regions or groups. The next option is a Display option. This allows you to access some of the display features of IFs. The next option on the menu of Evaluate Priorities is the Reset Priorities option. This allows users to clear all priority changes that were previously made.

The final option allows users to Change Priorities. Choosing this option opens up a secondary window where users can individualize their evaluative criteria. For example, if you were interested in emphasizing GDP per capita, double click on the number found in the column labeled “Weight”. This will bring up a smaller window that allows you to increase or decrease the numeric priority assigned to GDP per capita. The average priority for all variables is 5. From this screen, users can choose Define Priorities. This brings up a new window that allows for many different variables to be added to the main priorities menu.

If a user is interested in agricultural yield figures but it is currently not displayed on the Main Menu of Evaluate Priorities, they can click on the “No” that is found under the Guided Use column on the Define Priorities menu. Users can also delete any changes made to this list by selecting the Reset G.U. option found at the bottom of the Define Priorities menu.

Returning to the Evaluate Priorities form, users are able to see and change the weight allotted to certain variables by double clicking on the number located under the column labeled “Prior”. Also, if you would like to display the result of one variable over time, double-click on the number located under the column labeled Run-File. This will bring up a new table.

From the scroll-down lists located at the top of the Evaluate Priorities screen just below the menu, users can change the countries/regions or groups, the year that is being displayed and the Run-Result-File that is used as the source of results.