India 2017 Consolidation

Population Module

Model Vetting Using IIASA's India Model

Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Population

In 2010 the IFs model's population is about 2% greater than IIASA's, but in 2015 Andaman and Nicobar Islands's population drops below IIASA's by about 9%. The IFs model's population forecasts are less than IIASA's by an increasing rate and by 2095 IFs's population forecast is by about 94%. 

Crude Birth Rates

Andaman and Nicobar Island's Crude Birth Rates in IFs are close to IIASA's forecasts. In 2075 and 2080 IFs is less than IIASA by about 10%, but all other years the two models are less than 10% in difference. 

Crude Death Rates

The IFs model's CDRs are significantly greater than IIASA's forecasts. In 2015 the IFs model's CDRs are about 9% greater than IIASA's and by 2095 the difference grows to around 23%. 

Arunachal Pradesh

Population

Arunachal Pradesh's population forecast in IFs is close to IIASA's. IFs is less than IIASA by an increasing amount from about 2040 to 2080. In 2080, the difference between the two model's forecasts peaks at about a 4.3% difference. From 2080 through the end of the time horizon the difference between the two models decreases slightly to around 4%. 

Crude Birth Rates

Arunachal Pradesh's CBRs in the IFs model jump up in 2014 at model initialization. The IFs model's forecasts are significantly higher than IIASA's, ranging between 18% and 36% difference. 

Crude Death Rate

Arunachal Pradesh's CDRs in IFs are greater than in IIASA's by 36% initially. Overtime, the two models become closer and closer until 2090 when IIASA's forecasts for CDR pass IFs. 

Assam

Population

The IFs model's population forecasts are slightly greater than IIASA's by less than 5% in all years. The average difference between the two models is around a 3%. 

Crude Birth Rates

CBRs are relatively close in the two models. The largest difference is in 2095 where IFs's population forecast is nearly 8% lower than IIASA's. 

Crude Death Rates

In 2010 there is an 18% difference between IIASA and IFs's historical data. By 2015 the two models are very close and IIASA is greater than IFs until around 2070. After 2070 IFs' CDRs are greater than IIASA's by an increasing rate. From 2015 through 2100 there is not a difference between the two models that is greater than 5.5%. 

Bihar

Population

Bihar is one of the largest provinces in India and IFs is forecasting greater population growth than what is seen in IIASA's forecasts by about 70 million by the end of the time horizon. In 2095, IFs forecasts Bihar's population to be about 31% greater than IIASA's forecast.

Crude Birth Rate

IFs forecast of Bihar's CBRs are greater than IIASA's. IFs forecasts rise and fall two times in the forecasts. IIASA's forecasts are smoother than IFs and steadily decline over time. In 2030 the difference between the two models is at its' greatest reaching about a 24% difference. In 2095 the difference between the two model's declines to its' lowest point at about 3% difference. 

Crude Death Rate

In 2010 the two model's have their greatest difference, with IFs's CDR being 20% greater than IIASA's. From IFs model initialization in 2014 through 2060 the two models are quite close, with less than 10% difference in all years. After 2060, IIASA's forecasts are greater than IFs by about 10% to 13%. 

Chandigarh

Population

IFs forecast of Chandigarh's population is significantly less than IIASA's forecast by an increasing amount throughout the forecasts. By 2095 IFs is less than IIASA by 129%. 

Crude Birth Rate

IFs and IIASA's forecasts of CBR are similar, with IFs forecasts being greater than IIASA's by between 2% and just under 11% in 2095.  

Crude Death Rate

IFs forecast of CDRs are significantly greater than IIASA's forecast by between 19% and 36%. The two model's starting points in 2010 are close and have about a 5% difference.

Chhatisgarh

Population

The IFs model's forecast of population in Chhatisgarh is greater than IIASA's population forecasts by an increasing margin. By 2095 IFs' population is about 11% greater than IIASA's.

Crude Birth Rates

From 2010 through 2030 the two models' forecasts of CBRs have the greatest difference, ranging from 4% in 2015 to 11% in 2025.  From 2030 through the end of the time horizon, the two models are similar with less than 3% difference in any given year. 

Crude Death Rates

IFs' and IIASA's CDRs in 2010 are at their greatest difference, with IFs being about 13% greater than IIASA. In 2025 IFs' CDRs drop below IIASA's forecast of CDR until 2080. Between 2025 and 2080, IFs is between 0% and 8% less than IIASA's forecast. After 2080, IFs' CDRs increase beyond IIASA's and by 2095 IFs is about 4% greater than IIASA's. 

Dadra and Nagar Haveli

Population

Dadra and Nagar Haveli's population forecast in IFs is significantly lower than IIASA's. By 2095 IFs forecast is about 111% lower than IIASA's forecast. 

Crude Birth Rates

IFs forecasts of CBRs are significantly greater than IIASA's. By 2095 IFs forecasts of CBRs is 33% greater than IIASA's. There is a noticable shift up in IFs' forecast in 2014 when the model initializes. 

 

Crude Death Rates

CDRs in the IFs model are significantly greater than IIASA's in all years. There is a significant jump in CDR in the IFs model at model initialization in 2014. The difference between the two models is greatest in magnitude in 2015 with IFs being 62% greater than IIASA's CDR. The models have the least difference in total in 2010 with about 0.75 deaths per thousand difference. 

Daman and Diu

Population

IFs population forecasts for Daman and Diu are significantly less than the IIASA population forecasts. The magnitude of difference between the population forecasts in the IFs model and IIASA's model is at its greatest in 2095 with the IFs population being 268% less than the IIASA population.

Crude Birth Rates

IFs' CBRs are greater than IIASA's for all years but for the first 15 years of forecasts, from 2010 through 2025, are very close. IIASA's forecasts have CBR declining more rapidly after 2025 than IFs' forecasts. By 2095 IFs' CBRs are about 39% greater than IIASA's.

Crude Death Rates

IFs forecasts CDRs to be much higher than IIASA does. There is a noticable upward shift in IFs' CDR in 2014 at the model initialization, then CDRs decline until around 2020. After 2020 IFs forecasts CDRs to rise more rapidly than IIASA until it peaks in 2070, then CDRs decline in the IFs model until the end of the time horizon in 2100. IIASA's forecast is smooth and steadily increases until it plateaus around 2090. The magnitude of difference ranges from around 11% to 62%.

Delhi

Population

IIASA's population forecast for Delhi is significantly greater than IFs' population forecast. By 2095, IIASA forecasts a population of about 45 million. Alternatively, in IFs the population is forecast to be around 22 million. This difference between the two models is around 106% in 2095. 

Crude Birth Rates

CBRs in the two models are relatively close with less than an 11% difference in any given year. IFs' forecast of CBR are greater than IIASA's in all years. 

Crude Death Rates

CDRs in the IFs model are greater than IIASA's forecasts in all years. The difference increases every year up until 2075 where the difference between the two models peaks at 27%.

Goa

Population

Goa's population in IFs is significantly less than the population in IIASA's model. By 2095 IFs population is 59% less than IIASA's. 

Crude Birth Rates

Goa's CBRs are greater in the IFs model than the IIASA model for all years by about 1.5 births per thousand. The magnitude of difference between the two models ranges from 11% to 17%. 

Crude Death Rates

There is a significant downward shift in IF's forecast of CDR in 2014 at model initialization. This shift results in a 43% magnitude of difference between IFs and IIASA's models, despite the two models having very close starting points in 2010. IFs' forecasts of CDRs increase more rapidly than IIASA's, and by 2070 IFs' CDRs become greater than IIASA's through the end of the time horizon.