Economic preprocessor
There are 72 series marked as "economic" in the "group" field that are read into the preprocessor. Most of them come from World_Development_Indicators (WDI). There are quite a few series marked as "IMF GFS 2013 BATCH PULL". There are a lot of data on the informal economy from ILO-WIEGO. Cyber data also appears to be read into DataEcon.
Sources
IMF, ILO, WDI, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)
Economic series used in preprocessor
TO BE COMPLETED
Initializations
Use government consumption and expenditures data to initialize SAM.
Government consumption
Government consumption (CGovCon) is initialized using SeriesGovCon%GDP.
Source: WDI
Definition: Government (general) final consumption as % of GDP
Data Description- General government final consumption expenditure (formerly general government consumption) includes all government current expenditures for purchases of goods and services (including compensation of employees). It also includes most expenditures on national defense and security, but excludes government military expenditures that are part of government capital formation.
CGConFromSectors = GExpDef(ICount%) + GExpEd(ICount%) + GExpRandD(ICount%) + GExpHl(ICount%) + GExpInfra(ICount%) + GExpInfraOther(ICount%)
Set CGovCon as the max of CGovCon and the CGovCon calculated as the sum of sectors. Bound between 9 and 35.
Government expenditures
Initialize central government expenditures and total government expenditures and then calculate local government expenditures as the difference.
Central government expenditures (GovtExpCentral) is initialized using SeriesGovExpense%GDP
Source: WDI
Definition: Government expense as % of GDP (compare with govt expenditures)
Extended definition: Expense is cash payments for operating activities of the government in providing goods and services. It includes compensation of employees, interest and subsidies, grants, social benefits, and other expenses such as rent and dividends
Note: This series has "government" as the group.
Use SeriesGovtCalcExpendTot%GDP to initialize total government expenditures.
Source: IMF GFS
Definition: Expenditure, government, total, as % of GDP
If null, then use SeriesGovTotalOutlays%GDP
Source: OECD Statistics Database Online
Definition: Government total outlays (% of GDP), including forecast
Hard code 46 in for Ireland in 2010 because of bailout.
If no data on total expenditures still, then we cannot estimate local so we use this equation:
If IsNull(CGovTotExp) Then
CGovExpLocal(ICount%) = 2 + 12 * Amin(20, CGDPPCP(ICount%)) / 20
Else
CGovExpLocal(ICount%) = AMAX(1, CGovTotExp - GovExpCentral)
End If
CGovExp(ICount%) = GovExpCentral + CGovExpLocal(ICount%) 'Add Central plus local to get total
' Go to total govt expenditures and filling holes when have data in order to compute local govt
' When do not have total and therefore ability to compute local govt,
' estimate at 2-14% of GDP (OECD gap between total and central is 14%)
' North, Walli, Weingast p. 10 have table showing grows from 1-2% to 16%
Government revenue
Central government revenue (GovRevCen) is initialized using SeriesGovtCurRev%GDP
Source: WDI
Definition: Current government revenue as % of GDP
Extended definition: blended with old Ifs data. Revenue is cash receipts from taxes, social contributions, and other revenues such as fines, fees, rent, and income from property or sales. Grants are also considered as revenue but are excluded here.
If it's null or less than 5 then we use GDP per capita to estimate.
Total government revenue (GovRevTot) is initialized using SeriesGovtCalcRevTot%GDP
Source: IMF GFS
Definition: Revenue, government, total, as % of GDP
If GovRevTot is null i.e. there is no data for total government revenue for the country in SeriesGovtCalcRevTot%GDP (or the value is less than 5) then esimate using GDP per capita (2005). Then set GovRevTot as the max of total government revenues and central government revenues. Cap total government revenues at 75. Set local government revenue as the difference between total and central.
Note: This logic creates problems for countries where there is not a total government revenue data point but there is a central government data point (ex. Malawi). In this case, both total government revenue and central government revenue are initialized as the data value for central government revenue and local government revenue is set at zero (the difference between total and central).
Firm tax rate (CFirmTaxR) is initialized using SeriesTaxCorp%Tot
Source: IMF Government Finance Statistics (2001)
Definition: Corporate taxes as percent of total central government revenue
Note: Apparently not part of batch pull. Also, has "government" as the group.
Social security tax (CSSWelTaxR) is initialized using SeriesTaxSocSec%CurRev
Source: WDI
Definition: Social security taxes as % of total govt revenue
Indirect taxes (CIndirectTaxR) is initialized using SeriesTaxGoodSer%CurRev
Source: WDI
Definition: Taxes on goods and services as % of total govt revenue
Household taxes (CHHTaxR) estimated as residual from firm, welfare, and indirect taxes
Transfers
CGovSSWel is initialized using SeriesGovSSWelBen%Exp
Source: WDI
Definition: Government Social Security and welfare expenditures as % of total expenditures
Note: Not included in last WDI batch pull
Reconciliation
' Govcon+SSWEL=GOVEXP; give priority first to boosting Govcon, then reducing sswel, then boosting Govexp
'i.e. protext all of govcon and boost if possible; reduce sswel as needed; reduce govexp after sswel
Pensions
Government pensions (CGovHHPenT) are initalized using SeriesGovtPension%GDP
Source: Data was processed from World Bank's pensions site.
Extended source: "International Patterns of Pension Provision" by Palacios and Pallares-Miralles, 2000; OECD Social Expenditure Database. World Bank Pensions Performance Indicators Q2, 2013.
Definition: Government (public) pensions as % of GDP
Note: Newer pension data exists in IFs but is not pulled into preprocessor
Reconcile with trade
Normalize Expenditure Components to 100% - (X-M)
Split into sectors
Government consumption
' Split Government Consumption and Investment into Sectors of Origin
' ------------------------------------------------------------------
For ICount% = 1 To CCount
GMN(ICount%) = 0.1 * CGCon(ICount%) 'Manufacturing spending assumed to be 10% of conumption
GSR(ICount%) = 0.9 * CGCon(ICount%) 'Services spending assumed to be 90% of consumption
IMN(ICount%) = CINVEST(ICount%) * 0.5 'Manufacturing investment assumed to be 50% of investment
ISR(ICount%) = CINVEST(ICount%) * 0.5 'Services investment assumed to be 50% of investment
Next ICount%
Personal consumption
' Split Personal Consumption into Sectors - Use Value Added and AMAT
' ------------------------------------------------------------------
Use AMAT data to initalize personal consumption for agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
Adjust personal energy consumption based on world energy price and energy exports (exporters tend to consume more).
Initalize ICT personal consumption using ICTShare
Normalize with total consumption.
Social Accounting Matrix
' Social Accounting Matrix Stocks. Begin with Stocks because some needed for flows
Stocks
' SAM Stocks: Start with World Bank and IMF Loans and Credits - Want to be
' sure that external debt/assets cover known values
World Bank (CXWBLOANS) is initialized using SeriesXWBLoans%GDP.
Source: WDI Batch Pull
Definition:IBRD loans and IDA credits as % of GDP
Notes: mjs: Data is transformed to percent of gdp using current us$ GDP; MJE
IMF loans (CXIMFCREDIT) are initialized using SeriesXIMFCredit%GDP.
Source: WDI Batch pull
Definiton: IMF credits as % of GDP
Notes: mjs: Data is transformed to percent of gdp using current us$ GDP; MJE
' Allocate World Bank Loans to Advanced Countries
' -----------------------------------------------
Allocate total World Bank loans to "advanced countries" (countries with GDP per capita over 10,000 USD and no World Bank loans) based on size of economy. Use one countries share of the total GDP of all advanced countries to determine the share of total WB debt that they lend.
PerCap = CGDP(ICount%) / CPop(ICount%)
If PerCap > 10 And CXWBLOANS(ICount%) <= 0.001 Then
CXWBLOANS(ICount%) = -CGDP(ICount%) / AdvGDPXWBDebt * (GloXWBDebt / AMAX(1, sxwblneqr))
End If
Do the same for IMF debt.
Initialize public and private guarenteed debt (PPGDEBT) using SeriesXDEBTPPG%GDP
Source: WDI Batch Pull
Definition: External debt, public and publicly guaranteed, as percentage of gross domestic product
Initialize external debt (private non-guarenteed) (PNGDEBT) using SeriesXDEBTPNG%GDP
Source: WDI Batch pull
Definition: External debt, private non-guaranteed, as percentage of gross domestic product
Assume firm debt (CXFIRMDEBT) is half of the sum of public and private guarenteed and private non-guarenteed.
CXFIRMDEBT(ICount%) = PNGDEBT + PPGDEBT * 0.5
'Need to break PPGDEBT better between private/governmental
'Probably poorest countries have highest govt share
Allocate external firm debt to advanced countries using same procedure for IMF and WB debt above
' Integrate Debt Caculation Using Current Account Data
' ----------------------------------------------------
This basically calculates annual exports, imports, and aid for 1960 to 2010 and sums into cumulative debt.
Initialize external debt (CXDEBTRPA) using SeriesXDEBT
Source: WDI Batch Pull
Definition: External long-term (more than 1 year) debt: public, publically guaranteed and priv nonguaranteed
' Augment External Debt Data with Current Account Accummulation and
' Compute Global Balance
If there is no data for CXDEBTRPA then use the cumulative sum calculated from current account above.
Make sure that debt is at least as big as the sum of WB, IMF, and private debt calculated above.
Make sure that assets are at least as big as WB donations IMF donations, and private assets.
'Assume debt data better than asset and impose on assets - Scale each lender countries assets to align with global debt