Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree

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The Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree page can be accessed from the Main Menu: choose Scenario Analysis then click Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree. Use this feature to call up or to mix and match an extensive number of scenario interventions and/or a set of stored scenario intervention files, or to change any parameter or initial condition used in the software for any country/region, thus effecting the relationships used to forecast trends. Use the Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree to create Scenario-Load-Files (.sce), run these files through IFs in order to create Run-Result-Files (.run) that you can use throughout IFs.

An example of the Quick Scenario Guide page in IFs when first opened.

This page has a number of features and options to create, load, adjust, and run scenarios. These options and features include:

  • Continue: Go back to the previous menu or to the Main Menu of IFs.
  • Scenario Files:
    • Clear Tree: Clear any interventions currently loaded to the scenario tree.
    • Open: To load any set of saved or preloaded Scenario-Load-Files (.sce). Hover over folder names to get to the desired scenario to load then click on that scenario. The Open drop down is based upon the "Scenario" folder in the IFs file on the current device. Follow the same file path from the "Scenarios" folder to get to the desired scenario. The parameter tree will change corresponding to the conditions of the chosen scenario file.
    • Name and Save: Open a pop up to save a newly created scenario. The popup includes two fields to enter text into; type in the fields then click Save or Cancel. The two fields are:
      • File Name: Enter a name for the created scenario.
      • Folder Name: Enter a new or already used folder name within the "User Defined Scenarios" folder under the "Scenarios" folder of the IFs file on the current device, to save the newly created scenario to that location.
    • Export to IFs Standard CSV Format: Save a CSV version of the scenario to the same folder that the currently displayed scenario is stored in. For newly created scenarios click Name and Save first before clicking this option. CSV versions of scenarios can be easier to manage and understand, as all years and dimensions are aligned in their given title column, unlike Scenario-Load-Files (.sce) that are written as text.
    • Export Working File: Download a Scenario-Load-File (.sce) of the current scenario tree.
    • Import IFs Standard CSV Format files: If a scenario is saved using the IFs standard csv format (use Export to IFs Standard CSV Format for an example of the format) in a folder under the "Scenario" folder in IFs file on the current device, it will appear as an option to import. Follow the same file path from the "Scenario" folder and click on the desired scenario csv to import.
  • Add Scenario Component: Similar to Open from the Scenario Files options. Layer multiple scenario files or interventions by clicking a different scenario once one has loaded.
  • Run Scenario: Open the Run page for the current scenario in the scenario tree. Adjust the horizon and click Start Run.
  • Delete Selection: When an intervention is displayed on the screen next to the scenario tree from either clicking on a parameter directly in the tree or from the Parameter Search option, click Delete to remove that intervention from the current scenario.
  • Set Group or Country: Click Groups to make interventions for particular groups, or Countries for a particular country or countries. The current selection will have a checkmark next to it.
  • Annotate Scenario: Click Annotate to open a description of the scenario interventions based on the current Scenario Tree. This is auto generated, but to edit the annotation click in the text box and change or add text as desired. Below the text box click Save to save edits, Clear to remove all text in the annotation, Help to open the corresponding page in the Pardee Wiki, or Exit to return to the Quick Scenario Analysis Tree.
  • Parameter Search: Click Search to open the Parameter Search page to search and select specific parameters. The Parameter Search feature is described below.
  • Help: Open the corresponding page in the Pardee Wiki.

Parameter Search

Use the Parameter Search feature to search and explore parameters, and choose parameters to adjust for scenario analysis. Use this feature with the Guide to Scenario Analysis in IFs to find the parameters most useful for the intended intervention or scenario goal. Type the desired parameter name in the search bar then click Search. Click on the parameter which will bring a few options described below. Click Load to select this parameter in the scenario tree, to adjust it for a scenario. Click Help to open the corresponding page in the Pardee Wiki, or Continue to go back to the previous menu or to the Main Menu of IFs.

An example of the Parameter Search option for tfrm.

The options once a parameter is clicked include:

  • Define: See a brief definition of what the parameter is.
  • Block Diagram (Pop-Up): This feature is not working....Bring up a help-file that shows a diagram that broadly explains how drivers interact for the area of inquiry (agriculture, economics, etc.). There normally is also textual explanation.
  • Equations (Pop-Up): See the mathematical equations that are used to determine this parameter.

Using the Scenario Tree

The easiest way to create scenario interventions is to use the Guide to Scenario Analysis in IFs along with the Parameter Search option, but if desired use the Scenario Tree. Click on any of the categories in the Scenario Tree (ex. Technological change.) to open sub categories and eventually to open up a parameter choices box. Once this box appears to the right of the scenario tree with parameter names and descriptions, click on any parameter to reveal a few options shown below.

An example of the scenario tree being used for Technological Change, Energy, and with the QEM parameter selected; shows the options that selecting a parameter will reveal.

Not all the options will be available or functioning for every parameter; the options include:

  • Select: Choose the parameter in order to change it.
  • Drivers: Click to see what variables are affecting the chosen parameter.
  • Explain (Pop-Up): See a causal diagram and an explanation of what affects this parameter.
  • View Equations (Pop-Up): See the mathematical equations that are used to determine this number.
  • Define: See a brief definition of what the parameter is.

Once a parameter is chosen by clicking Select a drop down will appear to choose either a particular country or group. Choose the desired country or group by clicking on it. Another drop down will appear if the parameter has dimensions (ex. Male, Female, Total), click on the desired dimension and choice and repeat if the parameter has multiple dimension choices. After this the selected parameter will appear to the right of the tree with its base value or scenario value (if opened within an already made scenario) shown. An example of this screen is shown below.

An example of when a parameter is selected to adjust on the Quick Scenario Analysis Tree page. Example shows the Government expenditures by destination multiplier (Health) for Argentina.

Adjust the initial parameter value to make interventions using default changes by clicking the bubble for High or Low, or to return to the base click Base. Instead of using the default options use the slider or enter the desired number into the field above the slider and click Apply. Using this slider or field option will apply that value to the whole time horizon to the year 2150, with shift period based upon the choice from the Shift Years dropdown. In the example the value is 5.177 and the shift years are 10, so the parameter interpolates from 1 to 5.177 from 2020 to 2030 and then stays at that value for the whole horizon. To have even more control of the parameter click Fully Customize.

An example of the Fully Customize option for parameter changes. This is example is for the Government expenditures by destination multiplier (Health) for Argentina.

This Fully Customize option allows more control over parameter behavior. The Information table displays information of parameter value for a given year, and the minimum and maximum values that IFs allows users to intervene on. If above or below these a warning message will appear. Use the Year field in this table to jump to a particular year to view the value or to start an intervention from.

The Change Numerically table is where the changes to a parameter are made from. Use the Next Year or Previous Year buttons to change the Year field by one. Once at the desired year to start an intervention shown in the Year field, enter in the Desired Value field the value to change the parameter to, use the Years to Repeat or Interpolate field to set the number of years for the intervention to take place (this includes the current year so to increase the value for the next 10 years enter 11). Click Change/Repeat to apply the desired value for the number of years entered (for example an increase to 8 for 61 years from 2090 to 2150, shown above) or click Interpolate to smoothly shift the value over the number of years entered from the current value to the desired value. Continue to use the Change Numerically table until the parameter is adjusted as desired.

To ensure that the parameter is adjusted as desired hover over the graph to see the parameter value in any given year. Click Register Change to apply this intervention to the current scenario, Cancel All Changes to clear the current parameter adjustments, Exit to Scenario Tree to return to the scenario tree, or Help to open the corresponding page in the Pardee Wiki.

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