Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs)
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Contents
1
Introduction
1.1
A Note on Parameter Names
1.2
Types of Parameters in IFs
1.3
Manipulating Parameters in IFs
1.4
Keys to Successfully Modifying Parameters in IFs
1.5
Prepackaged Scenarios
2
Demographic Module
2.1
Variables of Interest
2.2
Parameters to Affect Fertility
2.3
Parameters to Affect Mortality
2.4
Parameters to Affect Migration
2.5
Parameters to Affect Working Age
2.6
Prepackaged Scenarios
3
Health Module
3.1
Variables of Interest
3.2
Parameters to Affect Overall Health and Burden of Disease
3.3
Parameters that Affect Communicable Diseases
3.4
Parameters that Affect Non-Communicable Disease
3.5
Parameters that Affect Injuries and Accidents
3.6
Parameters to Affect Technology
3.7
Prepackaged Scenarios
4
HIV/AIDS Submodule
4.1
Variables of Interest
4.2
Parameters to Affect Prevalence
4.3
Parameters to Affect Mortality
4.4
Prepackaged Scenarios
5
Education Module
5.1
Variables of Interest
5.2
Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Annual Growth
5.3
Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Target Year for Universal Education
5.4
Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Multiplier
5.5
Parameters to Affect Education Spending
5.6
Parameters to Affect Gender Parity
5.7
Prepackaged Scenarios
6
Economic Module
6.1
Variables of Interest
6.2
Parameters to Affect Production and Growth
6.3
Parameters to Affect Domestic Financial Flows and the Social Accounting System
6.4
Parameters to Affect Trade and International Finance
6.5
Parameters to Affect the Informal Economy
6.6
Prepackaged Scenarios
7
Infrastructure Module
7.1
Variables of Interest
7.2
Parameters to Affect Infrastructure
7.3
Parameters to Affect Funding
7.4
Prepackaged Scenarios
8
Agriculture Module
8.1
Variables of Interest
8.2
Parameters to Affect Demand
8.3
Parameters to Affect Supply (Production)
8.4
Parameters to Affect Nutrition
8.5
Prepackaged Scenarios
9
Energy Module
9.1
Variables of Interest
9.2
Parameters to Affect Demand
9.3
Parameters to Affect Supply
9.4
Prepackaged Scenarios
10
Environment Module
10.1
Variables of Interest
10.2
Parameters Affecting Carbon
10.3
Parameters Affecting Water Resources
10.4
Parameters Affecting Air Pollution
10.5
Prepackaged Scenarios
11
Governance Module
11.1
Variables of Interest
11.2
Parameters to Affect Security
11.3
Parameters to Affect Capacity
11.4
Parameters to Affect Inclusiveness
11.5
Prepackaged Scenarios
12
International Politics Module
12.1
Variables of Interest
12.2
Parameters Affecting Power
12.3
Parameters Affecting Threat Levels
12.4
Parameters Affecting War Simulation
12.5
Parameters Affecting Diplomacy
12.6
Prepackaged Scenarios
13
Parameter Dictionary
13.1
Population
13.2
Health
13.3
HIV/AIDS
13.4
Education
13.5
Economics
13.6
Infrastructure
13.7
Agriculture
13.8
Energy
13.9
Environment
13.10
Governance
13.11
International Politics
Introduction
A Note on Parameter Names
Types of Parameters in IFs
Manipulating Parameters in IFs
Keys to Successfully Modifying Parameters in IFs
Prepackaged Scenarios
Demographic Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Fertility
Parameters to Affect Mortality
Parameters to Affect Migration
Parameters to Affect Working Age
Prepackaged Scenarios
Health Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Overall Health and Burden of Disease
Parameters that Affect Communicable Diseases
Parameters that Affect Non-Communicable Disease
Parameters that Affect Injuries and Accidents
Parameters to Affect Technology
Prepackaged Scenarios
HIV/AIDS Submodule
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Prevalence
Parameters to Affect Mortality
Prepackaged Scenarios
Education Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Annual Growth
Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Target Year for Universal Education
Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Multiplier
Parameters to Affect Education Spending
Parameters to Affect Gender Parity
Prepackaged Scenarios
Economic Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Production and Growth
Parameters to Affect Domestic Financial Flows and the Social Accounting System
Parameters to Affect Trade and International Finance
Parameters to Affect the Informal Economy
Prepackaged Scenarios
Infrastructure Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Infrastructure
Parameters to Affect Funding
Prepackaged Scenarios
Agriculture Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Demand
Parameters to Affect Supply (Production)
Parameters to Affect Nutrition
Prepackaged Scenarios
Energy Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Demand
Parameters to Affect Supply
Prepackaged Scenarios
Environment Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters Affecting Carbon
Parameters Affecting Water Resources
Parameters Affecting Air Pollution
Prepackaged Scenarios
Governance Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters to Affect Security
Parameters to Affect Capacity
Parameters to Affect Inclusiveness
Prepackaged Scenarios
International Politics Module
Variables of Interest
Parameters Affecting Power
Parameters Affecting Threat Levels
Parameters Affecting War Simulation
Parameters Affecting Diplomacy
Prepackaged Scenarios
Parameter Dictionary
Population
Health
HIV/AIDS
Education
Economics
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Energy
Environment
Governance
International Politics
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