IFs Bibliography

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Alcamo, Joseph, Rik Leemans and Eric Kreileman, eds. 1998. Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model. The Netherlands: Pergamon.

Alcamo, Joseph. 1994. IMAGE 2.0: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Alexandratos, Nikos, ed. 1995. World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (An FAO Study). New York: FAO and John Wiley and Sons.

Allen, R. G. D. 1968. Macro-Economic Theory: A Mathematical Treatment. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Avery, Dennis. 1995. "Saving the Planet with Pesticides," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 50-82.

Bailey, Ronald, ed. 1995. The True State of the Planet. New York: The Free Press.

Barbieri, Kathleen. 1996. "Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 33: 29-50.

Barker, T.S. and A.W.A. Peterson, eds. 1987. The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Barney, Gerald O., W. Brian Kreutzer, and Martha J. Garrett, eds. 1991. Managing a Nation, 2nd ed. Boulder: Westview Press.

Barro, Robert J. 1997. Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. 1999. Economic Growth. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Bennett, D. Scott, and Allan Stam. 2003. The Behavioral Origins of War: Cumulation and Limits to Knowledge in Understanding International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press

Birg, Herwig. 1995. World Population Projections for the 21st Century. Frankfurt: Campus Verlag.

Borock, Donald M. 1996. "Using Computer Assisted Instruction to Enhance the Understanding of Policymaking," Advances in Social Science and Computers 4, 103-127.

Bos, Eduard, My T. Vu, Ernest Massiah, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1994. World Population Projections 1994-95 Edition [editions are biannual] Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.

Boulding, Elise and Kenneth E. Boulding. 1995. The Future: Images and Processes. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Brecke, Peter. 1993. "Integrated Global Models that Run on Personal Computers," Simulation60 (2).

Bremer, Stuart A. 1977. Simulated Worlds: A Computer Model of National Decision-Making. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Bremer, Stuart A., ed. 1987. The GLOBUS Model: Computer Simulation of World-wide Political and Economic Developments. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Bremer, Stuart A. and Walter Gruhn. 1988. Micro GLOBUS: A Computer Model of Long-Term Global Political and Economic Processes. Berlin: edition sigma.

Bremer, Stuart A. and Barry B. Hughes. 1990. Disarmament and Development: A Design for the Future? Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.

Brockmeier, Martina and Channing Arndt (presentor). 2002. Social Accounting Matrices. Powerpoint presentation on GTAP and SAMs (June 21). Found on the web.

Brown, Lester R. 1981. Building a Sustainable Society. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R. 1988. "Analyzing the Demographic Trap," in State of the World 1987, eds. Lester R. Brown and others. New York: W.W. Norton, pp. 20-37.

Brown, Lester R. 1995. Who Will Feed China? New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R. 1996. Tough Choices: Facing the Challenge of Food Scarcity. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., et al. 1996 State of the World 1996. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., Nicholas Lenssen, and Hal Kane. 1995. Vital Signs 1995. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., Christopher Flavin, and Hal Kane. 1996. Vital Signs 1996. New York: W.W. Norton.

Burkhardt, Helmut. 1995. "Priorities for a Sustainable Civilization," unpublished conference paper. Department of Physics, Ryerson Polytechnic University, Toronto, Canada.

Bussolo, Maurizio, Mohamed Chemingui and David O’Connor. 2002. A Multi-Region Social Accounting Matrix (1995) and Regional Environmental General Equilibrium Model for India (REGEMI). Paris: OECD Development Centre (February). Available at www.oecd.org/dev/technics.

British Petroleum Company. 1995. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. London: British Petroleum Company.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 1991. Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1991. Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 1994. The World Factbook 1994. Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency.

Chang, Sheldon S. L. 1961. Synthesis of Optimum Control Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Chenery, Hollis and Moises Syrquin. 1975. Patterns of Development 1950-1970. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cipolla, Carlo M. 1962. The Economic History of World Population. Baltimore: Penguin.

Cook, Earl. 1976. Man, Energy, Society. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.

Committee on the Strategic Assessment of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Coal Program. 1995. Coal: Energy for the Future. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1981. The Global 2000 Report to the President. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1981b. Environmental Trends. Washington, D.C. (July).

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1991. 21st Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.

Crescenzi, Mark J.C. and Andrew J. Enterline. 2001. "Time Remembered: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Interaction," International Studies Quarterly 45, no. 3 (September): 409-431.

Crosson, Pierre, and Jock R. Anderson. 1992. Resources and Global Food Prospects. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. World Bank Technical Paper Number 184.

Cusack, Thomas R. and Richard J. Stoll. 1990. Exploring Realpolitik: Probing International Relations with Computer Simulation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.

Dargay, Joyce and Dermot Gately. 1999. "Income’s Effect on Car and Vehicle Ownership, Worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A 33: 101-138.

Dall, P., Kaspar, F. and Alcamo, J. 1998. "Modeling World-wide Water Availability and Water Use Under the Influence of Climate Change," Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Climate and Water, July 17-20, Espoo, Finland.

Dimaranan, Betina V. and Robert A. McDougall, eds. 2002. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. Available at http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v5/v5_doco.asp.

Dowlatabadi, H., and Morgan, M.G. 1993. "A Model Framework for Integrated Studies of the Climate Problem," Energy Policy (March): 209-221.

Duchin, Faye. 1998. Structural Economics: Measuring Change in Technology, Lifestyles, and the Environment. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

Edwards, Stephen R. 1995. "Conserving Biodiversity," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 212-265.

Edmonds, J., and Reilly, J.M. 1985. Global Energy: Assessing the Future. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Edmonds, J., Pitcher, H. Rosenberg, N., and Wigley, T. "Design for the Global Change Assessment Model." Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change. Laxenburg, Austria.

Ehrlich, Paul R. and Anne H. Ehrlich. 1972. Population, Resources, Environment. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.

Eicher, Carl. 1982. "Facing up to Africa's Food Crisis," Foreign Affairs 61, no. 1 (Fall): 151-74.

Eberstadt, Nicholas. 1995. "Population, Food, and Income," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 8-47.

Esty, Daniel C., Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela T. Surko, and Alan N. Unger. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. Volume provided courtesy of Ted Robert Gurr.

Flavin, Christopher. 1996. "Facing Up to the Risks of Climate Change," in Lester R. Brown and others, eds., State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton), pp. 21-39.

Forrester, Jay W. 1968. Principles of Systems. Cambridge, Mass: Wright-Allen Press.

Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Globerman, Steven. 2000 (May). Linkages Between Technological Change and Productivity Growth. Industry Canada Research Publications Program: Occasional Paper 23.

Grant, Lindsey. 1982. The Cornucopian Fallacies. Washington, D.C.: Environmental Fund.

Griffith, Rachel, Stephen Redding, and John Van Reenen. 2000. Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries. Institute for Fiscal Studies (January)

Gwartney, James and Robert Lawson with Dexter Samida. 2000. Economic Freedom of the World: 2000 Annual Report. Vancouver, B.C.: the Fraser Institute.

Hammond, Allen. 1998. Which World? Scenarios for the 21st Century. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

Harff, Barbara, with Ted Robert Gurr and Alan Unger. 1999. Preconditions of Genocide and Politicide: 1955-1998. Paper prepared for the State Failure Task Force and provided courtesy of Barbara Harff and Ted Gurr.

Henderson, Hazel. 1996. "Changing Paradigms and Indicators: Implementing Equitable, Sustainable and Participatory Development," in Jo Marie Griesgraber and Bernhard G. Gunter, Development: New Paradigms and Principles for the 21st Century. East Haven, CT: Pluto Press, pp. 103-136.

Herrera, Amilcar O., et al. 1976. Catastrophe or New Society? A Latin American World Model. Ottawa: International Development Research Centre.

Hoekstra, A.Y. 1998. Perspectives on Water: An Integrated Model-Based Exploration of the Future. Utrecht, the Netherlands: International Books.

Hughes, Barry B. 1980. World Modeling. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books.

Hughes, Barry B. 1982. International Futures Simulation: User's Manual. Iowa City: CONDUIT, University of Iowa.

Hughes, Barry B. 1985a. International Futures Simulation. Iowa City: CONDUIT, University of Iowa.

Hughes, Barry B. 1985b. "World Models: The Bases of Difference," International Studies Quarterly 29, 77-101.

Hughes, Barry B. 1985c. World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Hughes, Barry B. 1987. "Domestic Economic Processes," in Stuart A. Bremer, ed., The Globus Model: Computer Simulation of Worldwide Political Economic Development (Frankfurt and Boulder: Campus and Westview), pp. 39-158.

Hughes, Barry B. 1988. "International Futures: History and Status," Social Science Microcomputer Review 6, 43-48.

Hughes, Barry B. 1999. "The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project. Simulation and Gaming Vol 30, No. 3 (September): 304-326.

Hughes, Barry B. 1999. International Futures, 3rd edition Boulder: Westview Press, 1999.

Hughes, Barry B. 2000. Continuity and Change in World Politics. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, fourth edition.

Hughes, Barry B. 2001. "Global Social Transformation: The Sweet Spot, the Steady Slog, and the Systemic Shift," Economic Development and Cultural Change 49, No. 2 (January): 423-458.

Hughes, Barry B. 2002. Theats and Opportunities Analysis. Living document prepared for the Strategic Assessments Group, Office of Transnational Issues, Central Intelligence Agency, August 2002.

Hughes, Barry B. and Anwar Hossain. 2003. Long-Term Socio-Economic Modeling: With Universal, Globally-Integrated Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) in a General Equilibrium Model Structure. IFs Project Living Document, University of Denver.

Huth, Paul. 1996. Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies. Ewing, NJ: Princeton University Press.

International Energy Agency (IEA). 1995. Oil, Gas, and Coal Supply Outlook. Paris: International Energy Agency.

International Energy Agency (IEA). 1996. World Energy Outlook. Paris: International Energy Agency.

International Energy Agency (IEA). 1996b. The Strategic Value of Fossil Fuels: Challenges and Responses. Paris: International Energy Agency.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1995. International Financial Statistics. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1995. World Economic Outlook. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1995. Several volumes by various working groups. Published by Cambridge University Press.

Jansen, Karel and Rob Vos, eds. 1997. External Finance and Adjustment: Failure and Success in the Developing World. London: Macmillan Press Ltd.

Janssen, Marco. 1998. Modeling Global Change: The Art of Integrated Assessment Modelling. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

Janssen, Marco. 1996. Meeting Targets: Tools to Support Integrated Modelling of Global Change. Den Haag: CIP-Gegevens Koninklijke Bibliotheek.

Jansson, Kurt, Michael Harris, Angela Penrose. 1987. The Ethiopian Famine. London: Zed Books Ltd.

Jeffreys, Kent. 1995. "Rescuing the Oceans," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 296-338.

Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer. 1996. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns," Conflict Management and Peace Science XV, No. 2: 163-215.

Khan, Haider A. 1998. Technology, Development and Democracy. Northhampton, Mass: Edward Elgar Publishing Co.

Kahn, Herman, William Brown, and Leon Martel. 1976. The Next 200 Years. New York: William Morrow.

Kalymon, Basil A. 1975. "Economic Incentives in OPEC Oil Pricing Policy." Journal of Development Economics 2: 337-362.

Kaplan, Robert. 1994. "The Coming Anarchy," The Atlantic Monthly 273 (February): .

Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton. 1999a. "Aggregating Governance Indicators". World Bank Policy Research Department Working Paper No. 2195.

Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton. 1999b. "Governance Matters". World Bank Policy Research Department Working Paper No. 2196.

Keepin, B. and B. Wynne. 1984. "Technical Analysis of the IIASA Energy Scenarios," Nature312: 691-695.

Kehoe, Timothy J. 1996. Social Accounting Matrices and Applied General Equilibrium Models. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Working Paper 563.

Kennedy, Paul. 1993. Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. New York: Random House.

Klein, Lawrence R. and Fu-chen Lo, eds. 1995. Modeling Global Change. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.

Kornai, J. 1971. Anti-Equilibrium. Amsterdam: North Holland.

Kwasnicki, Witold and Halina Kwasnicka. 1996. "Long-Term Diffusion Factors of Technological Development: An Evolutionary Model and Case Study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change 52 (May): 31-57.

Leontief, Wassily, Anne Carter and Peter Petri. 1977. The Future of the World Economy. New York: Oxford University Press.

Levis, Alexander H., and Elizabeth R. Ducot. 1976. "AGRIMOD: A Simulation Model for the Analysis of U.S. Food Policies." Paper delivered at Conference on Systems Analysis of Grain Reserves, Joint Annual Meeting of GRSA and TIMS, Philadelphia, Pa., March 31-April 2.

Levis, Alexander, H., et al. 1977. Energy in Agriculture: On Modeling Inputs in AGRIMOD. Final Report to U.S. Department of Energy. Palo Alto: Systems Control, Inc., August, available through NTIS.

Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1989. "An Evaluation of ‘Does Economic Inequality Breed Political Conflict?," World Politics, Vol 41 , No. 4 (July 1989): 431-470.

Liverman, Dianne. 1983. The Use of Global Simulation Models in Assessing Climate Impacts on the World Food System. Dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles.

Londregan, John B. and Keith T. Poole. 1996. "Does High Income Promote Democrary?", World Politics 49, no. 1 (October): 1-30.

MacKenzie, James J. 1996. "Oil as a Finite Resource: When is Global Production Likely to Peak?" Paper of the World Resources Institute. Washington, D.C.: WRI.

Maddison, Angus. 1995. Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992. Paris: OECD.

Malthus, Thomas. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society. London (reprinted many times).

Mansfield, Edward D. 1994. Power, Trade, and War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Marchetti, Cesare, Perrin S. Meyer, and Jesse H. Ausubel. 1996. "Human Population Dynamics Revisited with the Logistic Model: How Much Can be Modeled and Predicted?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change 52 (May): 1-30.

Martens, Pim and Jan Rotmans, eds. 1999. Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Martens, W.J.M. 1997. "Health Impacts of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion: An Eco-Epidemiological Approach," Maastricht, the Netherlands: Maastricht University.

Mason, Andrew. 1997. "The Role of Population Change in the Asian Economic Miracle," Honolulu, Hawaii: East-West Center, AsiaPacific Issues, No. 33 (October), 8 pages.

McMahon, Walter W. 1997. Education and Development: Measuring the Social Benefits. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Meadows, Donnela H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William K. Behrens, III. 1972. Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books.

Meadows, Donnela H., Dennis L. Meadows, and Jorgen Randers. 1992. Beyond the Limits. Post Mills, Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing Company.

Meadows, Dennis L. et al. 1974. Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World. Cambridge, Mass: Wright-Allen Press.

Mesarovic, Mihajlo D. and Eduard Pestel. 1974. Mankind at the Turning Point. New York: E.P. Dutton & Co.

Mishkin, Eli. And Ludwig Braun, ed. 1961. Adaptive Control Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Moore, Will H., Ronny Lindstrom, and Valerie O’Regan. 1996. "Land Reform, Political Violence and the Economic Inequality-Political Conflict Nexus: A Longitudinal Analysis," International Interactions 21, No. 4: 335-363.

Mori, Shunsuke and Masato Takahaashi, 1997. An Integrated Assessment Model for the Evaluation of New Energy Technologies and Food Production, accepted by International Journal of Global Energy Issues.

Naill, Roger F. 1977. Managing the Energy Transition. Vols. 1 and 2. Cambridge, Mass: Ballinger Publishing Co.

Nordhaus, William D. 1992. "The DICE Model: Background and Structure of a Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy," New Haven: Yale University.

Nordhaus, William D. 1979. The Efficient Use of Energy Resources. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Oneal, John R. and Bruce M. Russett. 1997. The Classical Liberals were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985. International Studies Quarterly 41, no. 2 (June): 267-294.

Pan, Xiaoming. 2000 (January). "Social and Ecological Accounting Matrix: an Empirical Study for China," paper submitted for the Thirteenth International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Macerata, Italy, August 21-25, 2000.

Pesaran, M. Hashem and G. C. Harcourt. 1999. Life and Work of John Richard Nicholas Stone.

Pirages, Dennis. 1989. Global Technopolitics. Pacific Grove, Calif: Brooks/Cole Publishing.

Prinn, R. H.J., A. Sokolov, C. Wand, X. Xiao, Z. Yang, R. Eckhaus, P. Stone, D. Ellerman, J Melilo, J. Fitzmaurice, D. Kicklighter, and Y. Liu. 1996. "Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Analysis: Model Framework and Sensitivity Analysis." Cambridge, Mass: Global Change Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Przeworski, Adam and Fernando Limongi. 1997. "Modernization: Theories and Facts," World Politics 49, no. 2 (January): 155-183.

Population Reference Bureau. 1996. World Population Data Sheet 1996. Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau.

Postel, Sandra. 1996. Dividing the Waters: Food Security, Ecosystem Health, and the New Politics of Scarcity. Worldwatch Paper 132. Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, September.

Pyatt, G. and J.I. Round, eds. 1985. Social Accounting Matrices: A Basis for Planning. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.

Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates, and R. Swart. 2001. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Forthcoming.

Ray, James Lee. 1990. Global Politics, 4th edition. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

Ray, James Lee. 1995. Democracy and International Conflict. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.

Ray, James Lee and J. David Singer. 1973. " Measuring the Concentration of Power in the International System," Sociological Methods and Research 1, no. 4: 403-436. Reprinted in Measuring the Correlates of War, edited by J. David Singer and Paul Diehl. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990.

Rayner. S. 1992. "Cultural Theory and Risk Analysis," Social Theory of Risk, ed. G. D. Preagor. Westport, USA.

Repetto, Robert and Duncan Austin. 1997. The Costs of Climate Protection. Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute.

Richardson, Lewis Fry. 1960. Arms and Insecurity. Chicago: Quadrangle Books.

Richardson, Lewis F. 1960. Arms and Insecurity. Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press.

Romer, Paul M. 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic PerspectivesVol 8, No. 1 (Winter): 3-22.

Root T. and Stephen Schneider. 1995. "Ecology and Climate: Research Strategies and Implications," Science 269 (52): 334-341.

Rosegrant, Mark W., Mercedita Agcaoili-Sombilla, and Nicostrato D. Perez. 1995. "Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment." Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 5.

Rotmans, Jan. 1999. Integrated Assessment Models: Uncertainty, Quality and Use. Maastricht, the Netherlands: Maastricht University, International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Working Paper 199-E005.

Rotmans, Jan and Burt de Vries, eds. 1997. Perspectives on Global Change: The Targets Approach. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Rotmans, Jan and M.B.A. van Asselt. 1996. "Integrated Assessment: A Growing Child on its Way to Maturity," Climatic Change 34 (3-4): 327-336.

Rotmans, Jan. 1990. IMAGE: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academics.

Saaty, Thomas L. 1996. The Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback. Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.

Schafer, Andreas and David G. Victor. 1997. The Future Mobility of the World Population. Massachusetts Institute of Technology and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Discussion Paper 97-6-4 (revision 2, September).

Scheer, Sara J. and Satya Yadav. 1996. "Land Degradation in the Developing World: Implications for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment to 2020." Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 14.

Schneider, Stephen. 1997. "Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change: Transparent Rational Tool for Policy Making or Opaque Screen Hiding Value-Laden Assumptions?" Environmental Modelling and Assessment 2(4): 229-250.

Schwartz, Peter. 1996. The Art of the Long View. New York: Doubleday.

Sedjo, Roger A. 1995. "Forests: Conflicting Signals," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 178-209.

Shane, Harold G. and Gary A. Sojka. 1990. "John Elfreth Watkins, Jr.: Forgotten Genius of Forecasting," in Edward Cornish, ed., The 1990s and Beyond. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, pp. 150-155.

Shaw, Timothy W. and Clement E. Adibe. 1995-96. "Africa and Global Developments in the Twenty-First Century," International Journal 51 (Winter): 1-26.

Siegmann, Heinrich. 1985. Recent Developments in World Modeling. Berlin: Science Center.

Simon, Julian. 1981. The Ultimate Resource. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Singer, J. David, Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey. 1972. "Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power Wars, 1820-1965." In Bruce Russett, ed., Peace, War, and Numbers. Beverly Hills: Sage.

Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1993. World Military and Social Expenditures 1993. Washington, D.C. 20007: World Priorities, Box 25140.

Solow, Robert M. 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics 70, 1 (February): 65-94.

Stanford University. 1978. Stanford Pilot Energy/Economic Model. Stanford: Department of Research, Interim Report, Vol. 1.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 1994. SIPRI Yearbook. New York: Oxford University Press.

Stone, Richard. 1986. "The Accounts of Society," Journal of Applied Econometrics 1, no. 1 (January): 5-28.

Strategic Assessments Group (SAG), Office of Transnational Issues, Directorate of Intelligence. 2001 (February). The Global Economy in the Long Term. OTI IR 2001-013.

Systems Analysis Research Unit (SARU). 1977. SARUM 76 Global Modeling Project. Departments of the Environment and Transport, 2 Marsham Street, London, 3WIP 3EB.

Tammen, Ronald L, Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Allan C. Stam III, Carole Alsharabati, Mark Andrew Abdollahian, Brian Efird, and A.F.K. Organski. 2000. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House Publishers.

Taylor, Lance. 1975. "Theoretical Foundations and Technical Implications." in Charles Blitzer, Peter Clark and Lance Taylor, eds., Economy-Wide Models and Development Planning. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Taylor, Lance. 1979. Macro Models for Developing Countries. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Thirlwall, A. P. 1977. Growth and Development. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Thompson, M. 1997. Cultural Theory and Integrated Assessment. Environmental Modelling and Assessment 2(3): 139-150.

Thompson, M., R. Ellis and A. Wildavsky. 1990. Cultural Theory. Boulder, Co: Westview Press.

Thorbecke, Erik. 2001. "The Social Accounting Matrix: Deterministic or Stochastic Concept?", paper prepared for a conference in honor of Graham Pyatt's retirement, at the Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, Netherlands (November 29 and 30). Available at http://people.cornell.edu/pages/et17/etpapers.html.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 1956. Methods of Population Projections by Sex and Age. New York: United Nations, ST/SOA Series A.

United Nations (UN). 1992. Long-Range World Population Projections. Two Centuries of Population Growth: 1950-2150. New York: United Nations.

United Nations (UN). 1993. World Population Prospects - the 1992 Revision. New York: United Nations.

United Nations Development Program (UNDP). 1995. Human Development Report. New York: Oxford University Press.

United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). 1992. Production Yearbook. Rome: FAO.

United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). 1995. World Agriculture: Towards 2010. Rome: FAO.

United Nations Population Division. 1999. The World at Six Billion New York: UN.

United Nations Population Division. 2000. Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? New York: UN.

United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA). 1995. World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 1995. Washington, D.C.: Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.

United States Bureau of the Census. 1991. World Population Profile: 1991. Report WP/91 Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.

Walters, Robert S. and David H. Blake. 1992. The Politics of Global Economic Relations, 4th edition. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.

Waltz, Kenneth N. 1959. Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis. New York: Columbia University Press.

Watkins, John Elfreth, Jr. 1990. "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years," in Edward Cornish, ed., The 1990s and Beyond. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, pp. 150-155.

Wildavsky, Aaron, and Ellen Tenenbaum. 1981. The Politics of Mistrust. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.

World Bank. 1991b. World Tables 1991. New York: Johns Hopkins University Press.

World Bank. 1995 World Development Report 1995. New York: Oxford University Press.

World Energy Council (WEC) Commission. 1993. Energy for Tomorrow’s World. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

World Resources Institute (WRI). 1994. World Resources 1994-95. New York: Oxford University Press.

Wortman, Sterling and Ralph W. Cummings, Jr. 1978. To Feed This World. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Zinnes, Dina A. and John W. Gillespie, eds. 1976. Mathematical Models in International Relations (New York: Preaeger).